兔主席/tuzhuxi 20250206
以下為本號釋出在外網的內容，目標為美國/國外受眾，號召他們覺醒。翻譯成中文供參考。
【中文翻譯正文開始】
特朗普提出接管加沙地帶並保持“長期所有權”的提議——
對於那些支援特朗普的美國人來說，這個想法的更重大意義並不在於其可行性，也不在於它對中東和平程序的影響。
對於那些志向高遠、目光遠大的人來說，這一想法的意義也不在於它對戰後國際秩序、美國的全球形象、其合作伙伴與聯盟，以及美國在該地區和全球的地緣政治地位的影響。
這個事情實際上也不能反映特朗普的認知或能力——儘管他顯然缺乏對中東做出合理判斷所必需的知識（雖然他聲稱對此事思考了“數月”之久）。
關鍵在於，特朗普並不是“讓美國再次偉大”（MAGA）的支持者們一直在等待的救世主。
一旦他公佈了對加沙和以色列問題的解決方案，這一點就再明顯不過了。
美國保守派，尤其是“讓美國再次偉大”運動的參與者，必須承認一個基本事實：MAGA運動的支持者們並非天生、本能或固有地對猶太人的問題感興趣。他們關心的是“美國優先”。他們不想捲入無關的外交事務；他們不想浪費美國的資源，他們不想犧牲年輕美國人的生命；他們關注的是關乎美國人生計的廣泛國內問題。政治家、專家和學者把他們訴求稱為“孤立主義”。
對於猶太人，MAGA運動的支持者們並沒有天生的好感——無論是出於宗教原因，還是對政治、經濟或社會地位的考量——這與歷史上的反猶主義並沒有太大區別。有些人甚至仍然受到20世紀初歐洲種族主義的影響。儘管這在某種程度上是一個政治禁忌（即使對右翼而言也是如此），但他們對圍繞在特朗普身邊的猶太精英並沒有特別的熱情。他們不歡迎用“以色列優先”或“猶太人優先”取代“美國優先”，更不歡迎用“讓加沙再次偉大”取代“讓美國再次偉大”。
自馬斯克接管以來，X平臺已向更右翼的立場轉變。這種轉變可能真實地反映了許多普通美國人的價值觀和政治判斷——這些觀點在之前由自由派主導的“審查”或社群政策下受到了壓制。
然而，從事實來看，人們必須認識到，一個越來越被右翼、保守派和MAGA運動的聲音佔據和主導的社交媒體平臺，也充斥著反猶和反以色列的言論。
特朗普佔領加沙的想法既缺乏依據，又考慮欠妥：
——這對團結阿拉伯國家毫無作用。相反，它會破壞美國與這些國家之間，以及以色列與所有阿拉伯國家（乃至穆斯林國家）之間的關係；
——這肯定會把它們推向美國的“對立國家”。推向更廣泛的“全球南方”國家，以及更加“成熟”和“平衡”的歐洲大陸國家；
——按照任何標準，迫使巴勒斯坦人離開家園都等同於種族清洗，這是一種道德犯罪，特朗普永遠也不會因為這個獲得他渴望的諾貝爾獎；
——佔領加沙無異於又一場伊拉克戰爭。巴勒斯坦人和阿拉伯人很可能發動“人民戰爭”或游擊戰，讓佔領的美國人付出沉重的血肉代價。這將是越南戰爭和伊拉克戰爭的重演，而且只會更糟。這是MAGA運動的支持者們最不希望看到的。在當今的輿論環境下，華盛頓沒有人敢提出這樣的想法——這是特朗普總愛談論的（違背）常識的事。
——美國會招致伊斯蘭國家的憤怒。任何新出現的恐怖主義活動都會針對美國及其公民，使美國面臨巨大的安全風險。（美國人，請記住“9·11”襲擊！）
——以色列將是最大的受益者——等待美國幫助消滅哈馬斯，最終美國撤軍，讓以色列控制整個加沙。內塔尼亞胡已經準備好向他的極右翼盟友銷售這一想法。
——重建加沙將耗盡美國大量資源，而受益的只有少數與政府關係良好的公司和投資者（其中許多可能有猶太人資金支援）。這與普通美國人，尤其是MAGA運動的支持者們幾乎沒有關係；相反，買單的將是納稅人。
——特朗普的首要考慮似乎只在於他自己的贊助者、盟友和財務支持者，其中許多（甚至可以說大多數）是保守派/右翼猶太大亨（這不是陰謀論，而是公開資訊。請谷歌“特朗普的主要捐贈人”）
所有這些都清楚地表明，對特朗普來說，“讓美國再次偉大”和“美國優先”的口號只不過是機會主義的政治口號。他只是用這些吸引人的標語做幌子，來吸引那些在現有美國體制下別無選擇的普通美國人。作為一個含著金湯匙出生的人，他真正的直覺、意圖、抱負和使命在別處。
誠然，特朗普可能幫助“讓美國再次偉大”運動開創屬於它的時代和事業。但他不是“讓美國再次偉大”運動的救世主，人們應該希望他不要徹底背叛這項事業。
【中文翻譯正文結束】
英文原文:
Trump and Gaza: a Betrayal of MAGA
Trump’s proposal to take over and maintain “long-term ownership” over Gaza
For those Americans who support Trump, the significance of this idea isn’t about its feasibility, or its impact on the Middle East peace process.
For those who aspire more and think big, it isn’t about its effects on the post-war international order, America’s global image, its partners and alliances, or its geopolitical standing in the region and the globe.
Nor is it a reflection of Trump’s understanding or capability—he obviously lacks the necessary knowledge of the Middle East to make a sound judgment (despite his claim of thinking over about this for “months”).
The key point is that Trump is NOT the savior that MAGA supporters have been waiting for.
This was made abundantly clear once he revealed his proposed solution for Gaza and Israel.
A basic reality that American conservatives—especially within the MAGA movement—must acknowledge is that the MAGA Base isn’t naturally, instinctively and inherently interested in Jewish issues. They care about “America First”. They do NOT want to get entangled in unrelated foreign affairs, to waste American resources, or to sacrifice (young) American lives; they’re focused on the extensive host of domestic issues truly matter to Amercian citizens—what politicians, pundits and scholars call “isolationism.
Re the Jewish people, there is no innate fondness among the MAGA base – whether due to theological reasons, or reflections on political, economic, or social status – not much different from the historical antisemitism. Some are even still influenced by early 20th-century European racism. Albeit somehow a political taboo or no-go-zone (even for the Right) , they aren’t particularly enthusiastic about the Jewish elites surrounding Trump. They do not welcome the replacement of “America First” with “Israel First” or “Jewish First”, or “Make America Great Again” with “Make Gaza Great Again”.
Since Musk took over, the X platform has shifted toward a more right-wing stance. This shift may genuinely reflect the values and political judgments of many ordinary Americans—views that were suppressed under the previously liberal-dominated “censorship”, or community policies.
However, looking at the fact, one must recognize that a social media platform increasingly populated and dominated by right-wing, conservative, and MAGA voices is also rife with anti-Semitic and anti-Israel rhetoric.
Trump’s idea of seizing Gaza is ill-informed and ill-conceived:
— It will do nothing to unite Arab (and Muslim） nations. On the contrary, it will damage relationships—between the U.S. and these countries, as well as between Israel and all of them
— It will certainly push them towards Russia, China, the broader Global South, and the more sophisticated and balanced Continental Europe.
— Forcing Palestinians from their homeland amounts to ethnic cleansing, by any standard—a moral crime for which Trump will never win a Nobel Prize (which he aspires to)
— Occupation would be tantamount to another Iraq War. Palestinians and Arabs are likely to launch a “people’s war” or guerrilla warfare, exacting a heavy toll in blood and flesh from the occupying Americans. This would be a replay of the Vietnam and Iraq wars, and only worse. It is the LAST thing the MAGA base want. Nobody in Washington DC will dare to advance this idea in today’s shared sensibilities. It is part of the COMMON SENSE that Trump is too willing to talk about.
— The U.S. would incur the wrath of Islamic nations. Any emerging terrorism would be directed at America and its citizens, placing the nation at significant security risk. (Americans, Recall 9/11 Attacks, please!)
— Israel stands to benefit the most—waiting for the U.S. to help eradicate Hamas, only to have America eventually withdraw, leaving Israel in control of all of Gaza. Netanyahu is already preparing to promote this idea to his far-right allies.
— Rebuilding Gaza would drain vast American resources, with benefits accruing only to a few government-friendly companies and investors (many of which may be backed by Jewish capital). There is little connection to ordinary Americans, especially the MAGA base; instead, it is taxpayers who would foot the bill.
— Trump’s priorities seem to lie solely with his own benefactors, allies, and financial backers, many (or indeed) of whom conservative/right-wing Jewish tycoons (not conspiracy theories, but based on public information. please googe Trump's maga donors)
All of this clearly demonstrates that for Trump,“Make America Great Again”and “America First” slogans are nothing more than opportunistic political catchphrases. He uses these attractive terms only as a façade, to attract ordinary Americans who otherwise have no choice against the Establishment. As someone who was born with a silver spoon, he’s true intuitions, intentions and aspirations and mission lie elsewhere.
Admittedly, Trump might help MAGA carve out its own era and enterprise. But he is NOT the Messiah for the MAGA movement, and people should hope that he does not completely betray the cause.
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