1
思維導圖：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太陽，還要繼續努力的亞古獸
翻譯組全體成員如下：
2
Leaders | MAGAlomania
經濟學人社論 | 假借MAGA之名，實則唯利是圖
Leaders | MAGAlomania
經濟學人社論 | 假借MAGA之名，實則唯利是圖
Donald Trump’s economic delusions are already hurting America
特朗普的經濟幻想正在擊垮美國
The president and reality are drifting apart
美國總統閉目塞聽，罔顧現實
注：標題的MAGAlomania來自單詞megalimania n. an unnaturally strong wish for power and control, or the belief that you are very much more important and powerful than you really are
In his speech to Congress on March 4th President Donald Trump painted a fantastical picture. The American Dream, he declared, was surging bigger and better than ever before. His tariffs would preserve jobs, make America richer still, and protect its very soul. Unfortunately, in the real world things look different. Investors, consumers and companies show the first signs of souring on the Trumpian vision. With his aggressive and erratic protectionism, Mr Trump is playing with fire.
在3月4日國會聯席會議的演講中，美國總統特朗普向大家描繪了一幅美妙藍圖。他宣稱，美國夢將迎來前所未有的蓬勃與壯大。他堅信自己的關稅政策能夠穩就業、強經濟，更為重要的是還能保護美國的精神核心。然而，現實與夢想卻相去甚遠。投資者、消費者和企業已經開始對特朗普口中的前景流露出不滿。推行冒進偏激且變幻莫測的保護主義政策，特朗普無異於是在玩火自焚。
By imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, also on March 4th, Mr Trump is setting light to one of the world’s most integrated supply chains. Although he belatedly delayed duties on cars by one month, plenty of other industries will suffer. He has also raised tariffs on China and has threatened the European Union, Japan and South Korea. Some of these duties may also be deferred; others may never materialise. Yet in economics as in foreign relations, it is becoming clear that policy is being set on the president’s whim. That will cause lasting damage at home and abroad.
3月4日同日，特朗普下令對加拿大和墨西哥的商品加徵25%的關稅，向全球一體化程度最高的供應鏈動刀。儘管他事後又將加徵汽車關稅推遲了一個月，但其他許多行業仍將遭受重創。此外，特朗普提高了對中國的關稅，並威脅亦要對歐盟、日本和韓國採取此類行動。雖然某些關稅會推遲加徵，或者還有一些行業的加徵政策不會落地，但愈發明晰的一點是，不管是在經濟領域還是在外交關係方面，總統制定政策的隨意性非常大。這將在國內外不斷掀起波瀾。
When Mr Trump won the election in November, investors and bosses cheered him on. The S&P 500 rose by nearly 4% in the week after the vote in anticipation of the new president lighting a bonfire of red tape and bringing about generous tax cuts. His protectionist and anti-immigration rhetoric, investors hoped, would come to nothing. A stockmarket correction or a return of inflation would surely curb his worst instincts.
當特朗普在11月贏得大選時，投資者和企業家們對他振臂歡呼。投票結束後的那一週，標準普爾500指數上漲了近4%，因為市場普遍期待這位新總統能大刀闊斧地削減繁文縟節，並大力削減稅收。投資者們希望，特朗普奉行的保護主義和反移民言論只是雷聲大雨點小，股市回撥或再度通脹都可以遏制住他這些最不靠譜的想法。
Alas, those hopes are going up in smoke. Elon Musk’s DOGE is causing chaos and grabbing headlines, but with little sign yet of a deregulatory bonanza. (Mr Trump’s order banning the federal purchase of paper straws will do little for America Inc’s bottom line.) The budget blueprint passed in Congress in February keeps the tax cuts from 2017, in Mr Trump’s first term, but does not expand them—though it does add trillions to the national debt. In the meantime, Mr Trump’s tariff promises would return the average effective duty to levels not seen since the 1940s, when trade volumes were much smaller.
可嘆的是，這些希望正在化為泡影。埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）領導的“政府效率部”攪得美國雞犬不寧，站在輿論的風口浪尖，迄今為止幾乎沒有大力放寬監管的苗頭。（特朗普禁止聯邦政府購買紙質吸管的行政令對改善美國企業的盈利狀況幾乎毫無干係。）國會於2月透過的預算藍圖保留了特朗普在2017年開啟的第一任期所制定的減稅政策，但並未加大減稅力度——不過，減稅確實使國家債務增加了數萬億美元。與此同時，特朗普的關稅承諾將使平均有效關稅率回升至上世紀40年代後從未有過的水平，但要知道那時的貿易量可比現在小得多。
註釋：當地時間2月10日，特朗普簽署行政令，旨在恢復使用塑膠吸管。此前，特朗普表示，他將阻止拜登政府的一項計劃，即在聯邦政府內部逐步淘汰使用塑膠吸管，轉而使用紙質吸管。source: https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20250211A08SXI00
No wonder that, despite Mr Trump’s talk of a roaring comeback, the markets are flashing red. The S&P 500 has given up nearly all its gains since the election. Although economic growth remains fair, in recent weeks the yield on ten-year Treasuries has fallen, measures of consumer sentiment have plunged and small businesses’ confidence has slipped, hinting at a slowdown to come. Meanwhile, inflation expectations are rising, perhaps because Mr Trump is talking about all those wonderful new tariffs.
在這種情勢下，儘管特朗普大談強勢迴歸，市場仍然亮起紅燈也不足為奇。標普500指數幾乎回吐了自大選以來的全部漲幅。儘管經濟增長尚可，但十年期國債收益率在近幾周內下挫，消費者信心指數暴跌，小企業信心下滑，種種現象均暗示經濟放緩即將來臨。與此同時，通脹預期正在上升，這或許要歸因於特朗普對所謂“美麗新關稅”的鼓吹。
Underlying the alarm is a dawning realisation that Mr Trump is less bound by constraints than investors had expected. Although price rises blew up Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, the prospect of inflation is not deterring Mr Trump, who argues that the economic harm from tariffs is worth it. During his first term he gloried in the long stockmarket boom; this time markets have not featured among his many social-media posts. His postponement of the car tariffs is too short-lived for the industry to adapt. Mr Trump is sticking to his belief that tariffs are good for the economy.
市場拉響警報的背後，投資者逐漸意識到特朗普受到的約束低於他們的預期。儘管物價上漲讓卡瑪拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）的總統競選潰敗，但通脹前景卻不曾讓特朗普卻步，他聲稱為提升關稅遭受點經濟損失是值得的。他對自己首個任期內出現的股市繁榮鳴鳴得意；而這一次，在他鋪天蓋地的社交媒體帖文中，市場卻鮮少被提及。儘管特朗普推遲實施汽車關稅，但緩衝期依然太短，不足以讓行業適應並調整。他始終毫無動搖地堅信關稅對經濟有益。
Just as important, the people around the president also appear to lack influence. Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, and Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, are both financiers, but if they are trying to rein in Mr Trump, they are not doing very well. Instead of being wise counsellors, they come across as stooges, explaining why tariffs are essential and Wall Street doesn’t matter. Few businesspeople want to speak truth to power for fear of drawing Mr Trump’s ire. And so the president and reality seem to be drifting ever further apart.
同樣重要的是，特朗普身邊的人物似乎也很少能影響到他。財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）和商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克（Howard Lutnick）雖同為金融家，但如果他們想要約束特朗普的行為，顯然收效甚微。他們非但沒有起到智囊團的作用，反而成為了為總統政策背書的傀儡，不斷解釋為何關稅至關重要而股市表現無關緊要。鮮有商界人士願向當權者仗義執言，唯恐引火燒身。如此一來，總統與現實愈發脫節。
注：Wall Street is often used to refer to the financial business carried out there and to the people who work there.
That threatens America’s trading partners. For some reason, Mr Trump reserves special hostility for Canada and the EU. Because his approach lacks any coherent logic, there is no knowing how to avert his threats. Worse is to come if he carries through his promise to Congress to impose reciprocal tariffs, which match the duties that American exports face abroad. That would create 2.3m individual levies, requiring constant adjustment and negotiation, a bureaucratic nightmare that America unilaterally abandoned in the 1920s. Reciprocal tariffs would strike a fatal blow to the global trading system, under which every country has a universal rate for every good that is not within a free-trade agreement.
這種趨勢正威脅著美國的貿易伙伴。出於某種原因，特朗普尤為敵視加拿大和歐盟。由於他的政策既無條理，又無邏輯，外界無從得知如何規避其威脅。如果他兌現對國會的承諾，實施“對等關稅”（即匹配其他國家對美國出口商品徵收的關稅），那麼事情將變得更加糟糕。因為這將產生230萬項獨立稅目，需要不斷進行調整和談判——早在上世紀20年代，美國便單方面摒棄了這種官僚主義噩夢。在現行體系下，所有國家對於未簽訂自貿協定的商品均採用統一稅率，而對等關稅將給全球貿易體系帶來致命一擊。
As if that were not bad enough, tariffs will harm America’s economy, too. The president says he wants to show farmers that he loves them. But protecting America’s 1.9m farms from competition will inflate the grocery bills of its nearly 300m consumers; and compensating them for retaliatory tariffs will add to the deficit. Whatever Mr Trump believes, economic growth will suffer because tariffs will increase input costs. If businesses cannot pass them on to consumers, their margins will wither; if they can, households will experience what amounts to a tax rise.
如果上述情形不夠糟糕的話，關稅還會損害美國經濟。特朗普表示，他想表達對美國農民的關愛。但保護美國190萬農場免受競爭之苦將使近3億美國消費者面臨更昂貴的食品百貨；而為補償他們所對外徵收的報復性關稅將增加赤字。無論特朗普懷揣何種想法，關稅都會推高企業投入成本，經濟增長由此受到負面影響。如果企業不能將這些成本傳導給消費者，那麼企業的利潤空間將會受到擠壓；如果真由消費者承擔這些額外的成本，那麼對美國家庭而言，這和增稅別無二致。
Mr Trump’s policies set up an almighty clash with the Federal Reserve, which will be torn between keeping rates high to curb inflation and cutting them to boost growth. One of America’s most important remaining independent institutions, the Fed would have to face down an angry president used to getting his way. When the administration staged a power grab over the Fed’s regulatory responsibilities it carefully set monetary policy apart. How long would that distinction last?
特朗普的政策引發了與美聯儲的正面對峙，美聯儲將陷入兩難境地：究竟是維持高利率以遏制通脹，還是降息以刺激經濟增長。作為美國當前最重要的獨立機構之一，美聯儲不得不直面一位向來我行我素、容易氣急敗壞的總統。當美國政府攫取美聯儲在監管職責方面的權力時，卻也小心翼翼地不去觸碰貨幣政策領域。但這種避讓會持續多久呢？
MAGAlomania
假借MAGA之名，實則唯利是圖
The world economy is at a dangerous moment. Having defied reality (and the constitution) after he lost the election in 2020, only to be triumphantly re-elected in 2024, Mr Trump has no patience for being told that he is wrong. The fact that his belief in protectionism is fundamentally flawed may not sink in for some time, if it ever does. As the message that Mr Trump is harming the economy grows louder, he could lash out at the messengers, including his advisers, the Fed or the media. The president is likely to inhabit his protectionist fantasy for some time. The real world will pay the price.
全球經濟正處於危如累卵之際。特朗普在2020年大選鎩羽而歸後罔顧現實、蔑視美國憲法，卻在2024年再度入主白宮，他沒有耐心聽他人面刺其過。他信奉保護主義從根本上便是大錯特錯，但他可能在一段時間內（甚至永遠）都不會領悟這一事實。隨著“特朗普正在損害經濟”的呼聲變得愈發嘹亮，他可能會痛斥傳達這一資訊的人，包括他的顧問、美聯儲與媒體。接下來的時間裡，特朗普很可能會沉浸在他為自己構築的保護主義幻境之中。現實世界將為此付出代價。
翻譯組：
Pay，一個堅定遠航的sailor
Ryan，學海無涯，譯無止境
Charlie，剃刀邊緣無比鋒利
Yo，女，種下過流星，立志不做大鴕鳥
審校組：
Rebecca，運動快樂星人
Charlie，剃刀邊緣無比鋒利
Rachel，學理工科，愛跳芭蕾，熱愛文藝的非典型翻譯
3
本期感想：
VeRy，男，電氣民工，經濟學人資淺愛好者
可能有相當一部分的人對於川普的政策或者行為報以看熱鬧不嫌事大的心態，準備看一場好戲，但對於許多身處其中或者深受影響的人而言，也許旁人看來的一個鬧劇政策會把一些人一輩子的努力付之一炬，這也許就是權力的魅力吧。
小時候，我們經常以為世界，至少是“我”的世界，可以因為自己的努力而變得更好，旁人的所作所為絲毫不能也不會影響到自己的世界，所以自己就可以封閉在這個世界裡。但是隨著年齡的增大，慢慢熟悉了這個社會的運作，雖然說不出個道道，但是逐漸形成了自己的一套感受，其中比較重要的便是自己的行為並不會影響這個社會的執行，自己只會被社會和時代的車輪無情地碾壓，沒有人在乎自己的感受和下場。這便是殘酷性的來源之一。
但若不是普通老百姓，便有了權力，也有了在某種程度上影響社會執行的能力，權力的一個結果便是一舉一動都會影響到某一批人群的處境，有好有壞。也許是讓一群人幸福起來，也許是讓另一群人徹底沉陷。但無論結果好壞，這類權力從根本上就需要進行限制，約束程序，規範流程，因為一點點的偏倚就會導致無數人的苦難和不幸。這件事大概是不能從結果來判斷好壞與否的。
4
打造
46節直播課