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May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太陽，還要繼續努力的亞古獸
翻譯組全體成員如下：
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財經|梧桐樹專欄
英文部分選自經濟學人20250322期財經板塊
Finance & economics | Buttonwood
Beneath investors’ feet, the ground is shifting
投資者腳下，市場格局正在悄然改變
More remarkable than slumping share prices are the forces behind them
比股價下跌更值得關注的是其背後的驅動力
Any time share prices are slumping, it is worth looking at a chart of America’s S&P 500 index that goes back to 1987. That year on October 19th, or “Black Monday”, it plummeted by 20% in a single day—a crash not equalled before or since. The shock was so great that regulators subsequently devised “circuit breakers”, which automatically halt trading after a big enough drop, to prevent a repetition. Pull up a chart stretching from then to today, however, and Black Monday is barely visible, dwarfed by the scale of the subsequent returns. For long-term investors, what felt like an earth-shaking event at the time turned out to be little more than a blip.
每當股價下跌時，都值得回顧一下美國標普500指數自1987年以來的走勢。那年10月19日，即“黑色星期一”，該指數“前無古人後無來者”地在單日內暴跌20%。此次衝擊如此之大，以至於監管機構隨後制定了“熔斷機制”，在跌幅達到一定程度時自動暫停交易，以防止類似事件重演。然而，如果拉長時間線，從1987 年至今來看，其後的長期回報讓“黑色星期一”顯得微不足道。對於長期投資者而言，這場當時看似驚天動地的市場動盪，最終不過是歷史長河中的一個小波瀾。
註釋：Blip: n. a transient sharp movement up or down (as of a quantity commonly shown on a graph)
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/blip
Compared with that plunge, the recent lurch in share prices has seemed almost stately. Since mid-February America’s S&P 500 index has suffered a peak-to-trough fall of just 10%. More notably, the dollar prices of Asian and European stocks rose over the same period, having already shot up beforehand, which has snapped a long streak of American outperformance. But what has really grabbed investors’ attention is the feeling of the ground moving beneath their feet. Although those focused on multi-decade returns might dismiss a few weeks of price fluctuations, the reverberations from recent tectonic shifts may be felt for some time.
與當年的暴跌相比，近期股市的震盪顯得格外溫和。自2月中旬以來，美國標普500指數的峰谷跌幅僅為10%。更引人注目的是，同期亞洲和歐洲股市的美元計價反而有所上漲，且此前已大幅攀升，打破了美國市場長期跑贏全球的趨勢。然而，真正讓投資者警覺的，是腳下的大地似乎在悄然移動。對於那些關注數十年長期回報的投資者而言，短短幾周的價格波動或許微不足道，但近期“地殼變動”所帶來的餘波，可能將持續引發關注。
The most obvious change is in sentiment, with the assets that were previously hottest now being shunned and vice versa. It is not just American stocks, though Bank of America’s latest monthly survey shows fund managers ditching the country’s equities at their fastest clip in decades. They have also been dumping global shares in favour of cash. Tellingly, “value” stocks, which are cheap relative to underlying earnings or assets, have begun to trounce “growth” stocks, which are expensive but promise explosive future profits. This reverses the trend of the past couple of years and recalls the market moves of 2022, when central bankers raised interest rates, with the consensus being that a global recession was on the way. Investors, in other words, have gone from forecasting red-hot economic growth to a rising chance of a slowdown.
最明顯的變化在於市場情緒的轉變，曾經最熱門的資產正在被摒棄，而此前不受青睞的資產反而受到追捧。雖然美國銀行最新的月度調查顯示，基金經理正在以數十年來最快的速度拋棄美國的股票，但這一現象並不僅限於美股，他們還在拋售全球的股票，轉向持有現金。耐人尋味的是，“價值股”（其股價相對盈利或資產較低）已經開始大幅跑贏“成長股”（價格較高，但承諾未來高速增長）。這種變化不僅扭轉了過去幾年的趨勢，還讓人回想起2022年的市場動向，當時央行行長們上調利率，市場普遍預期全球經濟將陷入衰退。換言之，投資者已從預測經濟將如火如荼地增長，轉向認為經濟放緩的可能性越來越大。
註釋：
1.shunned：If you shun someone or something, you deliberately avoid them or keep away from them. 有意迴避
2.ditch：If you ditch something that you have or are responsible for, you abandon it or get rid of it, because you no longer want it. 丟棄
As they have made this switch, many have felt another tremor: the assets they are used to relying upon during such a “risk-off” move have suddenly let them down. Gold, it is true, has been breaking record after record. Yet so far in March, the prices of American Treasury bonds—normally a favourite bolthole—have fallen along with the S&P. Investors are worried that persistent inflationary pressure, perhaps from a trade war that sees tariffs ratchet ever higher, might prevent rates from falling much even if growth does slow. That keeps bond yields high and prices, which move inversely to yields, low.
在這一轉變過程中，許多人感受到另外一種震撼：他們習慣在“避險”操作時依賴的資產，突然讓他們失望了。誠然，黃金屢創新高。然而，截至3月份，美國國債——通常被視為避險首選——其價格與標普指數一同下跌。投資者擔心，持續的通脹壓力（可能來自關稅不斷攀升的貿易戰）可能會阻止利率大幅下跌，即使經濟增長放緩也是如此。這將使債券收益率保持高位，而價格（與收益率呈反向變動）則持續低迷。
註釋：
1.tremor：If an event causes a tremor in a group or organization, it threatens to make the group or organization less strong or stable. (團體或組織內的) 波動
2.bolthole：避難處
The failure of the usual haven currencies has been more jarring still, especially for European investors. Stockmarket convulsions are often the cue for a “flight to safety” to the dollar and, to a lesser extent, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. In recent weeks, however, the euro has soared against all three, as German and EU fiscal-stimulus plans have raised the continent’s growth prospects. The pat on the back for policymakers has been brutal for investors who count their returns in euros and hold assets listed overseas. During previous stockmarket corrections, such as in 2022, a strengthening dollar acted as a hedge for such investors, cushioning their losses. In recent weeks a weakening greenback has only added to their woes. The 10% peak-to-trough fall in the dollar value of the S&P 500 index comes to 14% when measured in euros.
傳統避險貨幣的失利更是令人不安，尤其是對歐洲投資者而言。股市動盪往往會觸發投資者“逃向安全資產”，首選美元，瑞士法郎和日元次之。然而，近幾周來，隨著德國和歐盟的財政刺激計劃提升了歐洲的增長前景，歐元兌這三種貨幣均大幅升值。雖然這對政策制定者來說是一種肯定，但對於以歐元計算收益並持有海外上市資產的投資者而言，卻是沉重的打擊。在以往的股市調整中，比如2022年，美元走強曾為這類投資者提供對沖，減少了他們的損失。然而，近幾周美元走弱加劇了他們的困境。標普500指數以美元計算的峰谷跌幅為10%，換算成歐元則達到14%。
註釋：
1.jarring：令人不快的
2.convulsion：If someone has convulsions, they suffer uncontrollable movements of their muscles. 抽搐
Meanwhile, a deeper shift is taking place that could, in time, shake markets even more violently. For the better part of a decade, Japanese interest rates were near zero or below it. This gave rise to the popular “carry trade”, whereby investors borrowed yen cheaply to invest in assets with much higher yields, such as stocks. Since 2022 Japanese yields have risen fast, making carry trades less attractive; last summer the sudden unwinding of many sent stockmarkets around the world into a tailspin. Although stocks then stabilised, Japanese borrowing costs have continued to rocket, reaching their highest since 2008.
與此同時，一場更深層次的轉變正在發生，未來甚至可能會給市場帶來更為激烈的動盪。在過去十年的大部分時間裡，日本的利率都接近零或負值。投資者以低成本借入日元，投資於高收益資產（如股票）的"套利交易"由此盛行。自2022年以來，日本的利率迅速攀升，套利交易的吸引力持續下降；去年夏天，許多交易突然被平倉，全球股市暴跌。儘管股市隨後企穩，但日本的借貸成本仍在持續飆升，達到2008年以來的最高水平。
Put differently, the Bank of Japan is shutting down a funding source that has fuelled traders’ bets for years, at the same time as plenty of other long-standing trends break down. The lesson from 1987 is not to spend too much time worrying about day-to-day market movements. When the forces behind them are changing fast, though, watch out.
換言之，日本央行正在關閉一個多年來為交易員下注提供資金支援的來源，而與此同時，許多長期以來一直存在的趨勢也正在瓦解。1987年的教訓告訴我們，不必過度擔憂市場的日常波動。然而，當推動市場變動的深層原因快速發生變化時，我們就需要提高警惕了。
翻譯組：
Dreamian: 尋找方向
Martina：想成為REST的I人
vivifang，女，本人豐富，日新月異，無法簡介
校對組：
Rachel，心有懵虎，細嗅烏龜
Hannah 愛看財經的金融小白經濟學人唯粉
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感想
Intro，男，政府臨時工，前理想主義者兼積極的悲觀主義者
美國股市的大幅下跌引發了關注，百度特意還搞了個“3·10 美股暴跌”的詞條，搞得像美國資本市場要黃了一樣……美股最近的大跌，給秉持著“東昇西降”的朋友們以很大鼓舞，等得花兒都謝了終於等到了這段時間……
美國股市的暴跌主要是三點原因構成，一是基本面轉弱，二是科技股估值太高。三是懂王的貿易戰爭。首先是基本面轉弱，美國多項經濟資料表現疲軟，GDP增長預期悲觀，亞特蘭大聯儲預測2025年第一季度美國GDP可能萎縮2.8%，遠低於2024年第四季度2.3%的增長率，顯示經濟韌性減弱。同時，消費者信心下滑，美國2月消費者信心指數從67.8下調至64.7，為近年低點，消費者對未來5-10年的通脹預期升至3.5%，創1995年以來最高水平，這些資料加劇了市場對經濟衰退的擔憂。
對於科技股的估值泡沫，這幾乎唱了好幾年。2024年科技股推動標普500超過50%的漲幅，2025年初美股整體前瞻市盈率及中位數升至過去22年（除疫情泡沫期外）的最高水平，形成顯著的估值泡沫。以“七姐妹”（蘋果、微軟、亞馬遜、英偉達等）為代表的科技巨頭股價此前大幅上漲，但隨著市場對經濟前景的擔憂加劇，這些高估值的科技股面臨較大的調整壓力。
特朗普沒有硝煙的戰爭，更是加劇了全球資本市場的避險情緒。特朗普政府的貿易保護主義政策，對加拿大、墨西哥商品加徵25%關稅，對華商品加徵10%-20%關稅等，引發了全球貿易戰的擔憂，導致市場對全球供應鏈穩定性的擔憂加劇。貿易緊張局勢不僅影響了美國企業的成本和利潤，也對全球經濟增長帶來了負面影響。
但我認為漂亮國日子不好過不代表我們就有好果子吃，美股作為全球金融市場的風向標，其走勢對全球投資者的心理和資金流向有著深遠的影響。當美股出現顯著下跌時，全球投資者的風險偏好往往會下降，導致資金從其他股市流出，轉向更為安全的資產。這種資金流動的變化，使得其他股市也面臨下行壓力。從歷史資料來看，美股大跌時，全球權益資產普遍受到負面影響。例如，根據海通證券的研究，在美股經歷大跌的時期，A股和港股市場的表現通常也不盡如人意，平均跌幅分別達到了25.3%和28.7%。這種聯動效應在短期內尤為明顯，尤其是在全球性危機期間，如2020年疫情初期，美股暴跌期間，A股和港股也同步下跌。
所以西方不亮、東方也不一定亮。還是回到老生常談的話題，現在的資本市場不管是風動還是幡動，越來越多的投資者的避險行動都是一直都在動。黃金作為傳統的避險資產，其價格通常會在市場不確定性增加時上漲。近期，黃金價格再創歷史新高，現貨黃金上漲1.13%，報3034.42美元/盎司，COMEX黃金期貨盤中一度飆至3040.7美元/盎司。黃金漲成這個樣子，一定不是誰升誰降，而是東方西方日子過得都挺夠嗆。
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願景
46節直播課