Finance & economics | Splashing out
財經 | 揮霍
英文部分選自經濟學人20241227財經板塊
Finance & economics | Splashing out
Why fine wine and fancy art have slumped this year
Investing in luxury goods was a bad move in 2024
Oenophiles, artaficionados, petrolheads and all those who like the finer things in life have, alas, not had the best year. The prices of their luxury assets have tanked. An investor who put their money into art at the beginning of 2024 lost on average 16% by the end of November, according to the All Art index, a measure assembled by Art Market Research, which tracks sales at auction. Those who invested in fine wine lost about 11% over the same period, according to the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 gauge—the closest thing to a global benchmark for the wine industry. The price of diamonds has dropped by almost 20% and those of collectible cars are more or less flat.
品酒師、藝術愛好者、車迷和所有那些追求精緻生活的人，哎，去年的日子都不太好過。他們的奢侈品資產價格暴跌。由追蹤拍賣銷售情況的藝術市場研究公司（Art Market Research）編制的全藝術品指數（All Art Index）顯示，2024年初投資藝術品的投資者到11月底平均損失了16%。Liv-ex 精品葡萄酒1000指數（Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000）可以說是最能代表葡萄酒行業全球基準的指數；根據這一指數，投資精品葡萄酒的人同期損失了約11%。此外，鑽石價格下降了近20%，而具有收藏價值的汽車價格則基本走平。
註釋：
1.Oenophile：a lover or connoisseur of wines葡萄酒行家
2.aficionado：if someone is an aficionado of something, they like it and know a lot about it 迷
3.petrolhead：a person who is excessively interested in or is devoted to travelling by car非常熱衷於駕車旅行的人
4.alas：you use alas to say that you think that the facts you are talking about are sad or unfortunate哎（表示難過或不幸的驚歎聲）
The slump follows years of heady growth that became more frenetic still during the covid-19 pandemic, when bored consumers splashed out. Prices went stratospheric.hsbc, a bank, reckons that designer dresses and handbags are 54% more expensive than they were in 2019. The price of the best Bordeaux wine reached its highest level in 12 years in 2022.
這次奢侈品價格暴跌其實是多年高速增長之後的回落。疫情期間，苦悶無聊的消費者大肆揮霍，推動價格飆升。據滙豐銀行（HSBC）估計，品牌服裝和手袋的價格比2019年上漲了54%。頂級波爾多葡萄酒的價格在2022年達到了12年來的最高水平。
註釋：
1.heady：興奮的；令人陶醉的；
2.Frenetic：狂熱的，發狂的；
3.Stratospheric：平流層的，同溫層的
It might seem surprising that the market for luxury assets has weakened since. Theimf reckons global gdp is on course to grow by a healthy 3.2% in 2024. Stockmarkets have gone gangbusters. And the number of super-rich people is rising fast. ubs, another bank, reckons there will be 86m dollar millionaires around the world by 2027, up from around 60m in 2023. You might think that when stocks rally and people feel rich they are more likely to splurge on luxury assets.
自那之後，奢侈品資產市場的疲軟乍看起來令人驚訝。據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）估計，在2024年，全球GDP有望實現3.2%的健康增長。股票市場已然是高歌猛進。超級富豪的數量也在迅速增加。據另一家銀行瑞銀集團（UBS）估計，到2027年，全球百萬美元富豪的數量將從2023年的6000萬增長到8600萬。你可能會認為，當股市反彈，人們感到自己富有時，更可能在奢侈資產上揮霍。
註釋：
In fact, as Liam Bailey at Knight Frank, a property firm that produces lots of research on the super-rich, says, luxury assets are in competition with financial assets. And those less glitzy investments have offered sizeable returns in 2024 (see chart). The msci World index, a gauge of global stocks, has gained 17% so far this year. Bitcoin has rallied by more than 140%. Even short-term Treasuries have offered decent returns. The s&p u.s. Treasury Bill 3-6 Month Index is up by more than 5% since the beginning of the year.
但事實上，正如萊坊（Knight Frank）（一家對超級富豪有著不少研究的房地產公司）的利亞姆·貝利（Liam Bailey）所說，奢侈品資產是在與金融資產競爭。而那些不那麼“浮誇”的投資在2024年提供了可觀的回報（見圖表）。衡量全球股市的明晟全球指數（MSCI World Index）開年以來已上漲了17%。比特幣上漲超過了140%。即使是短期國債也表現不俗：標準普爾美國3-6個月國債指數自年初以來上漲超過5%。
1.glitzy: something that is glitzy is exciting and attractive in a showy way浮華的
Geopolitics has not helped. Russia’s war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East have hit consumer sentiment in big luxury markets. Other buyers had put purchases on hold ahead of the presidential election in America. Since Donald Trump swept to victory, they have switched to worrying about trade wars; tariffs and informal bans can upend the market for luxury assets. Europe’s winemakers struggled after America introduced a 25% import tax in 2019. Antipodean vintners have rejoiced since March, when China lifted tariffs of up to 218% on Australian wine, which had been introduced after a diplomatic row in 2021.
地緣政治局勢也要“背鍋”。俄烏衝突及中東地區的衝突打擊了主要奢侈品市場的消費者信心。一些買家在美國大選開票前暫時停止了購買。特朗普獲勝以後，他們又開始憂心於貿易戰；關稅和非正式禁令可能會顛覆奢侈品市場。2019年，美國對葡萄酒徵收25%的進口稅令，歐洲葡萄酒製造商陷入困境。3月，中國取消了2021年時對澳大利亞葡萄酒加徵的最高218%的關稅，讓釀酒師們欣喜若狂。
China has been another drag. For two decades it fuelled demand for fancy wares. Now the combination of a property-market crisis and a government crackdown on showy wealth is crimping spending. The impact is most obvious in the wine market. Chinese buyers developed a taste for burgundy in particular over the past decade. According to data from Liv-Ex, an industry body, the price of the highest-end of those dry red wines plunged by almost 30% over the past two years. In 2019 China guzzled 17% of the world’s wine. That has since fallen to 8%.
中國也拖累了奢侈品資產價格。二十年來，中國一直在推高高檔商品需求。如今，房地產市場的疲軟和ZF對炫富行為的打擊正在抑制奢侈品消費。這種影響在葡萄酒市場最為明顯。過去十年，中國買家尤其鍾愛勃艮第葡萄酒。根據行業機構Liv-Ex的資料，過去兩年，這些頂級乾紅葡萄酒的價格暴跌了近30%。2019年，中國消費了全球17%的葡萄酒。如今這一比例已降至8%。
註釋：
dry red wine乾紅葡萄酒，是指葡萄酒在釀造後，釀酒原料（葡萄汁）中的糖分完全轉化成酒精，殘糖量小於或等於4.0g/L的紅葡萄酒。
Still, some corners of the luxury market have been resilient. According to Sebastian Duthy of Art Market Research, sales of “blue chip” art remained strong in 2024. Many of the pieces that did best at auction were by big-name artists whose work has not come up for sale for a long time. A painting by Jean-Michel Basquiat, a Neo-Impressionist, went for $46.5m at auction and one by Edward Ruscha, a pop artist, sold for $68.3m. As Mr Duthy says, investors are “playing it safe”.
不過，奢侈品市場的某些領域堅挺依舊。據藝術市場研究的塞巴斯蒂安·杜西(Sebastian Duthy) 所說，2024年“藍籌”藝術品的銷售依然強勁。在拍賣會上，表現最好的作品多是長期未曾公開出售的大師名作。新印象派畫家讓·米歇爾·巴斯奎特（Jean-Michel Basquiat）的一幅畫作以4650萬美元的拍賣價成交，而波普藝術家愛德華·路查（Edward Ruscha）的一幅畫作則以6830萬美元售出。正如杜西（Duthy）所說，投資者正在“求穩”。
Moreover, even if some buyers are keeping their distance, there will remain a dedicated group of luxury-fanatics who are already planning their next purchase. They are aware that things like vintage Ferraris and pink diamonds are risky, often illiquid investments. Roy Safit, head of the Fancy Colour Research Foundation, a diamond-industry research outfit, says the gems offer something stocks and bonds don’t: an owner can show them off. “People love to celebrate their success,” he says. For Dietrich Hatlapa, head of Historic Automobile Group International, another research group, buyers “are in it for the passion”.
此外，即使一些買家對奢侈品退避三舍，仍有一群忠實的奢侈品愛好者正計劃下次購買。他們明白，像老式法拉利和粉鑽這樣的東西是風險高、通常流動性較差的投資。鑽石行業研究機構彩鑽研究基金會（FCRH）的負責人羅伊·沙菲特（Roy Safit）稱，寶石具有股票和債券所沒有的特點：所有者可以炫耀。“人們喜歡慶祝他們的成功，”他說。對於另一家研究機構國際歷史汽車集團（Historic Automobile Group International) 的負責人迪特里希·哈特拉帕（Dietrich Hatlapa）來說，買這些東西的人純粹是因為熱愛。
翻譯組：
Vivifang，女，外幣債券交易員，滿眼都是鮑威爾。
Summer，女，QE在職，夢想能仗走天涯 翻譯/音樂 /健康
校對組：
Alexis, Less is more
Ithil, que je sois brave
Harold，不狂不放不申花
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