Richard Dembo , Sheena K. Gardner , Angela A. Robertson , Jennifer Wareham  & James Schmeidler

Recidivism, and its contributing factors, remains a primary concern among juvenile justice practitioners. The literature has identified numerous policies and practices that reduce reoffending. Among these is use of validated assessment tools to identify risk level and treatment needs of youth. Using six years of juvenile court processing data, the authors examine the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), a structured professional judgement tool used to predict risk of violence and recidivism among youth aged 12 to 18. Findings support the use of the SAVRY to predict general recidivism, especially among males and highlights the importance of conducting gender-specific analyses. Analyses did not identify patterned race/ethnicity differences in risk. Our findings recommend the continued use of the SAVRY as an evidence-based instrument.

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Reentry programs represent an increasingly popular method to reduce recidivism for individuals exiting prison and jail systems throughout the United States. Most evaluations tend to focus on recidivism as the primary outcome of interest.Attrition, however, can function an important supplementary measure that complements recidivism outcomes. To demonstrate, we analyze a jail reentry program built around peer navigators serving as staff members that refer participants to necessary support services while also serving as a mentor to participants exiting jail.

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We use a combination of general linear models (GLMs), Mahalanobis distance matching (MDM), and panel regression to both predict attrition and compare recidivism outcomes between three attrition groups: program completers, program quitters, and matched controls. Participants that successfully completed the program did not avoid new convictions or reincarceration significantly more or less than matched controls. Participants that quit the program, however, saw significantly higher conviction and reincarceration rates compared to matched controls. The nuance added to our program evaluation by adding attrition as a differential factor is worth consideration by other reentry programs who may not be realizing the full picture of their results by presenting recidivism outcomes alone.

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Recidivism rates differed depending on the type of system contact and the follow-up length. Rates were comparable when adult system data were and were not included. Three-level multivariate multilevel models showed that the predictors were more strongly associated with commitment than with referral or adjudication. The directions and significance of the predictors’ effects were consistent across types of system contact, follow-up lengths, and data sources. Researchers should use varied measurement strategies, clearly describe their approach, and test for robustness across measures.

Timothy McCuddy, Austin Wyatt & Stephen Watts

This study examined factors that distinguish adolescent weapon carrying in school compared to only in the community. We look at how experiences (offending, victimization, and gang-involvement) and perceptions (school, neighborhood, individual) toward violence are associated with self-reported weapon carrying in these two locations. Data came from two waves of the University of Missouri – St. Louis Comprehensive School Safety Initiative, a longitudinal study on the causes and consequences of school violence. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict weapon carrying among three mutually exclusive categories: those who do not carry, those who carry only in the community, and those who carry both in school and in the community.

We find that victim/offenders are more likely to carry weapons regardless of context, but school weapon carrying is positively associated with fatalism and gang-involvement. One school factor, school commitment, impacted carrying both inside and outside of school. Our results identify unique factors that can reduce adolescent weapon carrying in general and specifically in school.

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Research indicates that a majority of serious crime events are committed by a small proportion of repeat offenders. Many chronic offenders collaborate with others, co-offending on an irregular basis or as part of an organized gang. Understanding the characteristics of these offenders and their criminality has significant implications for our understanding of chronic violence and the implementation of successful, evidence-based crime prevention efforts.[2]

To contribute to this ongoing effort, we apply social network analysis (SNA) to a sample of 2,217 people arrested more than once for a violent crime between 2014 and 2022. We explore co-offending relationships, investigating differences in demographics and crime characteristics between networked and non-networked chronic violent offenders. The results of this exploratory study indicate significant differences in age and crime type by network status. This analysis also indicates that SNA is an effective method for exploring co-offending in a general-purpose crime dataset. Implications for policymakers and future directions for research are presented.

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A growing body of literature has explored the ‘life course’ of crime guns, with particular focus on the time between initial point of sale of firearms and their eventual recovery by police following a crime. We contend that this examination is incomplete, with limited consideration given to the period between a firearm’s first known use in a criminal offense and its recovery by police—which we refer to as time in crime. Increased understanding of this time frame is important given that crime guns are frequently recirculated among criminally involved groups and the recent finding that time in circulation following first known use in a crime is a significant predictor of multiple uses of crime guns.

We add to the literature through application of negative binomial regression to a sample of 310 crime guns used in offenses in a city in the Southeastern United States to examine how neighborhood context and initial incident characteristics influence the number of days that firearms remain in circulation after their first known use in a crime. We find that increased levels of concentrated disadvantage[3] and gang involvement during the original incident correspond with significant increases in time in crime, while increased levels of residential stability and the ability of police to identify suspects are linked with more rapid recovery of crime guns. Notably, these findings hold even after inclusion of popular time to crime covariates, including firearm quality, caliber, and status as a stolen gun.

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[1]操作化為將抽象的概念轉化為具體的實際可以觀測的變數和指標，然後用變數語言將抽象命題（由理論上定義的概念所組成）重新表述為可以直接檢驗的具體命題。見劉建明主編，《宣傳輿論學大辭典》，經濟日報出版社1993年版。

[2]王輝：《當代西方循證犯罪預防研究簡述及啟示》，載《河北法學》2012年12期。

原文連結：https://link.springer.com/journal/12103/volumes-and-issues/49-5