2024年7月21日美國東部時間下午1:46，美國總統拜登在社交媒體上發表宣告，宣佈退出2024年美國總統競選。這一事件不僅徹底改變了整個大選的局勢，更有可能深遠影響美國的命運。

我們緊急錄製了新一期播客，討論了拜登退選的原因及其影響，分析了潛在接班人哈里斯的優勢和劣勢以及她可能的競選策略，並展望了並不怎麼光明的未來。

本期播客錄製於美國東部時間7月21日晚間。

如果喜歡這期節目並希望支援我們將節目繼續做下去：歡迎加入我們最新推出的會員計劃： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

眾籌平臺連結：

合作投稿郵箱：[email protected]

00:00:41 民主黨高層如何透過壓力讓拜登退選

00:05:57 民主黨新候選人產生的流程

00:11:52 各州選票截止日期和民主黨大會召開時間帶來的挑戰

00:15:10 換人後如何從流程上增加哈里斯（或其他候選人）的合法性

00:19:34 民主黨對哈里斯支援的不同態度

00:24:08 民主黨換人是一種自我實現的預言

00:25:50 哈里斯的優勢和劣勢

00:27:27 拜登退選本人和民主黨精英的都有責任

00:31:35 民主黨國會成員要求拜登退選的考量

00:34:37 拜登為何無法扭轉競選危機

00:40:13 哈里斯給選舉帶來的變數

00:44:00 哈里斯需要儘快定義自己的形象

00:49:29 哈里斯的潛在副總統人選

01:02:30 哈里斯的動員和選舉策略

01:09:45 極化環境下總統選舉對參議院和眾議院選情的影響

01:14:25 特朗普獲勝、共和黨控制兩院的後果

01:17:04 民主黨對特朗普獲勝的恐懼

01:19:56 拜登接下來還能做什麼？

01:25:35 拜登退選開啟的潘多拉魔盒

美輪美換是一檔深入探討當今美國政治的中文播客。

我們的主播和嘉賓：

王浩嵐：美國政治愛好者，嵐目公眾號主筆兼訊息二道販子

Talich：美國政治和文化歷史愛好者

寄餘生：比較政治愛好者

On July 21, 2024, at 1:46 PM Eastern Time, President Joe Biden announced on X that he has decided to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. This development has not only dramatically reshaped the entire election landscape but also holds significant implications for the future of the United States.

We recorded an urgent podcast episode to discuss this event. We examined the reasons behind Biden's decision and its potential impacts. We also delved into the strengths and weaknesses of potential successor Kamala Harris, her possible campaign strategies, and the uncertain future that lies ahead.

This episode was recorded on the evening of July 21, Eastern Time.

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

00:00:41 How Democratic leaders pressured Biden to withdraw

00:05:57 The process of selecting a new Democratic nominee

00:11:52 Challenges posed by state ballot deadlines and the timing of the Democratic National Convention

00:15:10 Enhancing the legitimacy of Harris (or another candidate) through procedural changes

00:19:34 Varied attitudes within the Democratic Party towards supporting Harris

00:24:08 The self-fulfilling prophecy of the Democratic Party's candidate switch

00:25:50 Harris's strengths and weaknesses

00:27:27 Responsibility of Biden and Democratic elites in his withdrawal

00:31:35 Calculations of Democratic Congress members in urging Biden to step down

00:34:37 Why Biden couldn't reverse his campaign crisis

00:40:13 The uncertainties Harris brings to the election

00:44:00 The need for Harris to quickly define her own image

00:49:29 Potential VPl picks for Harris

01:02:30 Harris's mobilization and campaign strategies

01:09:45 The impact of the polarized environment on Senate and House races during the presidential election

01:14:25 Consequences of a Trump victory and Republican control of both chambers

01:17:04 Democratic fears of a Trump win

01:19:56 What Biden can still do moving forward

01:25:35 The Pandora's box opened by Biden's withdrawal

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩嵐 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

寄餘生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/biden-withdrawal-timeline.html