Asia | What are friends for?
經濟學人亞洲| 友誼的試煉
英文部分選自經濟學人2025011期社論版塊
Asia | What are friends for?
Joe Biden’s mixed legacy on Japan
Security co-operation flourished, but a scuppered steel deal leaves a sour taste
WITHIN 24 HOURS on January 6th, two events took place that encapsulate the mixed legacy Joe Biden will leave in America’s relationship with Japan. That afternoon North Korea tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile, and America shared data about the launch in real time with Japan and South Korea; such co-operation is the fruit of the Biden administration’s efforts to foster closer ties between allies in the Indo-Pacific.Later that day, Nippon Steel, a Japanese steel firm, sued the American government over Mr Biden’s recent decision to scupper its acquisition of US Steel, an American one.
1月6日當天的短短24 小時內，發生了兩件大事，鮮明體現了拜登政府在美日關係上留下的“複雜遺產”。當天下午，朝鮮試射了一枚中程彈道導彈，而美國即時與日本和韓國共享了發射資料；這一合作正是拜登政府深化印太地區盟友關係的成果。而就在當天晚些時候，日本鋼鐵公司新日鐵（Nippon Steel）就拜登近期阻止其收購美國鋼鐵公司（US Steel）一事而起訴了美國政府。
Under Mr Biden, security co-operation with Japan has flourished. America and Japan have ramped up joint exercises, deepened intelligence sharing and better integrated their armed forces; the two have also worked in closer concert with other American allies in the region. This has all unfolded with the clear aim of deterring China. Rahm Emanuel, America’s outgoing ambassador to Japan, argues that the alliance is “better prepared” to do so than it was four years ago.
在拜登總統任期內，美國與日本的安全合作蓬勃發展。美日兩國強化了聯合演習，深化了情報共享，更好地整合了兩國的武裝力量；兩國還與美國在印太地區的其他盟友展開了更加緊密的合作。所有行為的目的都昭然若揭，就是要威懾中國。即將卸任的美國駐日本大使拉姆·伊曼紐爾（Rahm Emanuel）認為，相比於四年前，美日同盟如今在這件事上“準備得更為充分”。
That was hardly a given. Japanese officials met Mr Biden’s victory in 2020 with some apprehension. Ahead of the election that year, one senior Japanese foreign ministry official even wrote an anonymous article praising Donald Trump’s confrontational strategy towards China and lamenting a possible return to engagement with China under a Democratic administration. Those fears proved unfounded. Mr Biden accelerated America’s hard turn on China and made alliances central to his approach. “The Indo-Pacific is a home game for China; it’s an away game for the United States,” Mr Emanuel says. Allies like Japan help to “level the playing field for us”.
這可並非理所當然。2020年拜登當選總統時，日本官員有些不安。在那年大選之前，一名日本外務省高階官員甚至撰寫了一篇匿名文章，讚揚唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）對中國採取的對抗性戰略，並對民主黨政府可能恢復與中國接觸表示遺憾。事實證明這些擔憂是多餘的。拜登總統加劇了美國對華的強硬態度，並將盟友關係置於其政策核心。伊曼紐爾表示，“印太地區對中國來說是主場，對美國來說是客場”，像日本這樣的盟友有助於“為我們創造公平的競爭環境”。
Tighter security ties became possible because of changes in Japan, which moved to accelerate its defence build-up in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There was a realisation that “things have to be moved into the second and third gear by the Japanese for the Japanese,” says Mr Emanuel. That spurred America to undertake long-discussed reforms of its own, such as restructuring its command-and-control systems in the region. Japan pushed America to “rip the band-aid off and do something that we all knew had to get done,” he reckons. The armed forces of the two allies have never been closer.
安保合作加強也離不開日本自身的改變。俄烏戰爭爆發後，日本加速了本國的防衛建設。這種改變源於日本的覺醒，“日本必須為自身利益進入更高的防衛階段”。這也促使美國實施一些討論已久的自身改革，如重組其在該地區的指揮控制系統。他認為，日本促使美國“下定決心，去做我們都知道早就應該完成的事情”。兩個盟國的軍隊之間達到了空前緊密的關係。
Yet Mr Biden will leave office on a sour note with Japan. One of his last acts as president was killing the Nippon Steel deal, on the grounds that such investment from a Japanese firm poses a national security threat to America. Japanese reactions have been unusually sharp. Ishiba Shigeru, the prime minister, demanded that America “clearly explain why there are security concerns”. Japanese business leaders expressed surprise and dismay; many say it may impact future investment decisions. “This is a one-off case, but it will still carry major ramifications,” argues William Chou of the Hudson Institute, an American think-tank.
然而，拜登即將揮袖卸任，獨留佈滿陰雲的美日關係。他卸任前的最後幾項行動之一，就是阻止新日鐵的收購，理由是日本企業的此類投資威脅美國國家安全。日本反應異常激烈。日本首相石破茂（Ishiba Shigeru）要求美國“解釋清楚為何存在安全擔憂”。日本商界領袖對此感到驚恐錯愕；很多人稱這或許會影響未來的投資決定。美國智庫哈德遜研究所（Hudson Institute）的威廉·周（William Chou）表示：“這種事件只會發生一次，但後續會激起滔天巨浪。”
註釋：
1.on a sour note: in an unpleasant way
2.Dismay is a strong feeling of fear, worry, or sadness that is caused by something unpleasant and unexpected.
3.one-off: made or happening only once and not regularly 一次性的；非經常的
4.The ramifications of a decision, plan, or event are all its consequences and effects, especially ones which are not obvious at first.（決定、計劃、事件產生的）後果，影響
Japan and America have weathered frequent bouts of economic friction in their decades-long alliance. No single commercial transaction is big enough to throw the whole relationship off-course. But the affair is indicative of America’s broader protectionist turn. Japan’s biggest gripe about Mr Biden’s approach to the Indo-Pacific has long been the absence of a trade policy. One response for Japan may be to seek closer economic ties with China; plans to host a state visitare reportedly in the works. Mr Emanuel, for his part, calls for America to develop a “more nuanced position” on trade, between “ignoring, as we did over 30 years, all the downsides of trade” and “the position that all trade is bad regardless of the benefit”. Nuance, alas, is unlikely to be a hallmark of Mr Biden’s successor.
美日結盟幾十年來，共同渡過了經濟摩擦的頻繁考驗。任何一次商業交易都不足以使美日關係徹底脫軌。但這次事件表明，美國將轉向更加廣泛的保護主義。長期以來，日本對拜登“印太戰略”的最大不滿在於貿易政策的缺位。或許日本會尋求同中國加強經濟聯絡以表回應；據報道，日本正計劃安排一次國事訪問。伊曼紐爾呼籲美國實行“更加細緻的貿易立場”，介於“過去30年間對所有貿易弊端視而不見”和“忽視貿易利處，秉持貿易只有弊端的立場”之間。只可惜，“細緻”恐怕不會成為拜登繼任者的代名詞。
註釋：A bout of something that is unpleasant is a short time during which it occurs a great deal.（不愉快之事大量發生的）一陣，一小段時間
翻譯組：
Ryan，學海無涯，譯無止境
Leon，男，駐外民工，經濟學人讀者
Benjamin，初學翻譯，愛紅酒，愛美食
審校組：
UU，保持低調
Charlie，剃刀邊緣無比鋒利
Vince，語言是前進路上的一道光
感想
本期感想作者：
Neil，男，外貿民工，經濟學人鐵粉
面對強敵，要麼自身變得牛X，如果暫時無力提升實力，也可以團結各方力量，一致對外。所有的關係並不是永遠一成不變，再不好的關係，等遇到共同難題的時候，也可能會開展合作。美日開展深度合作，是大勢所趨。區域性領域的衝突利益不一致，在面對更大利益得失的情況下，雙方都會做出理性的選擇。
產業經濟上，美日兩者也是相互競爭的關係，但是日本對於美國的軍事戰略重要性不言而喻。如未來有變，日本會是美國的第一道防線。美日的結合才能發揮最大的震懾作用。美國失去一道防線，即使遠在萬里，也不見得有多安全。老美一直強調國家安全，從這點上，美日的未來關係是確定的。
從奧巴馬時期，就制定了重返亞洲的政策，從當下看，無疑是正確的。亞洲對於美國來說具有經濟和軍事的雙重意義。除中日老齡化，其它國家擁有大量的年輕勞動力。套用任澤平對房產的評價，長期看人口。有人口的地方才能有長遠的發展。亞洲不僅是潛在的大市場，經濟利益足夠大，對於美國的產業供應鏈有不可缺失的作用。由此可以想象，未來美國在亞洲的關注也是確定的。
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