1
思維導圖：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太陽，還要繼續努力的亞古獸
翻譯組全體成員如下：
2
經濟學人社論 | 不確定性的代價
英文部分選自經濟學人20250329期社論板塊
寫在前面：
原文發表於3月27日，本篇譯文定稿於4月2日，故在時效性上有所滯後。
4月2日，特朗普頒佈關稅政策，對一眾貿易伙伴國實施關稅制裁。截至4月7日，美國股市大跌，全球股市也為之一震。
Leaders | The cost of uncertainty
經濟學人社論 | 不確定性的代價
The unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs will increase the pain
特朗普關稅政策變幻莫測，經濟陣痛恐將加劇
Businesses are struggling to adjust
企業正艱難應對
DONALD TRUMP has already raised the average tariff on America’s imports by about twice as much as he did in his entire first presidency. Just as damaging, though, has been the uncertainty about what comes next.
特朗普已將美國進口商品的平均關稅提高到其首個總統任期整體水平的兩倍左右。加徵關稅本身的殺傷力固然很強，政策走向的不確定性也同樣致命。
After April 2nd—“Liberation Day”, Mr Trump calls it—there will be another round of levies. The president promises 25% tariffs on all imported cars and country-by-country “reciprocal” tariffs based on how much his administration objects to a counterparty’s trade and tax policies. Will these plans change? Who knows? Mr Trump’s use of emergency powers means that he can do as he pleases.
在特朗普稱為“解放日”的4月2日之後，美國將開徵新一輪關稅。這位總統承諾對所有進口汽車徵收25%關稅，並將實施國別“對等”關稅，加征程度則基於其團隊成員對貿易伙伴國稅收與貿易政策的牴觸程度。這些計劃會否發生改變？誰知道呢。特朗普動用緊急權力意味著他可以為所欲為、我行我素。
This freedom may suit him. It does not, however, suit America’s businesses, which have no idea how bad the trade war will get; nor its consumers, who fear future inflation. The liberation America needs is from the paralysing uncertainty brought about by Mr Trump’s chaotic approach.
這種自由或許正合他意。然而美國企業卻苦不堪言，因為它們無法預判貿易戰會惡化到何種程度；美國消費者亦是提心吊膽，他們擔心關稅會引發通脹。美國真正需要的“解放”，是擺脫特朗普毫無章法的行事方式所導致的不確定性，這種不確定性會導致政策失能。
Since the president came to office, hefty tariffs on Canada and Mexico have twice been announced only to be mostly postponed. A long-threatened 10% levy on China has doubled in size. Industry-specific measures have proliferated. Mr Trump has already struck aluminium and steel imports, and has pledged new levies on chips, lumber and medicines. The price of copper has soared as reports swirl that it is to be targeted next. His justifications are dizzying: tariffs have been linked to border control, drug smuggling, VAT, trade deficits, TikTok and Mr Trump’s territorial ambitions. The president recently threatened to put levies on any country buying Venezuela’s oil. Such “secondary” tariffs, placed on the trading partners of target countries, would be devastating.
自入主白宮以來，特朗普兩度將關稅大棒揮向加拿大和墨西哥，宣佈對其徵收高額關稅，但大部分政策又兩度暫緩。高懸於中國頭頂的關稅之劍，最終從10%的稅率翻倍加徵至20%。行業針對性措施層出不窮：鋁鋼關稅已悍然出手，晶片、木材、藥品的新關稅正快馬加鞭、緊隨其後。銅可能成為下一個目標的傳聞甚囂塵上，其價格應聲暴漲。他的徵稅理由更是多到令人目眩：從邊境管控、毒品走私、增值稅問題、貿易逆差，到TikTok禁令乃至自己的領土野心。特朗普最近甚至威脅要對任何購買委內瑞拉石油的國家徵稅。這類針對目標貿易伙伴國的“次級制裁”關稅一旦實施，將造成毀滅性打擊。
What’s a business to do? When currying favour with Mr Trump, firms play up their investment plans. But when speaking to shareholders, they warn about the unpredictable environment. Surveys show an alarming fall in planned capital expenditure. The White House claims that, by prompting firms to invest in America, its tariffs on cars will boost GDP, jobs and real incomes.
企業該如何應對？在討好特朗普時，它們高調宣揚自己的投資計劃。但面對股東時，卻又警示當前的環境波譎雲詭。調查顯示，企業計劃中的資本支出正以驚人的速度下降。白宮聲稱，透過推動企業在美投資，對汽車加徵關稅將提振美國GDP、改善就業情況，並提高實際收入。
Ironically, however, the uncertainty makes it harder for tariffs to change investment patterns. Factories last for a long time. Building one in response to a tariff that could disappear at any moment is a gamble. The tariffs Mr Trump implemented during his first term failed to stem the secular decline in American manufacturing jobs. They did, however, push up costs for downstream producers, such as the firms that made goods using imported steel.
然而頗為諷刺的是，政策的不確定性加大了關稅改變投資模式的難度。工廠的運營壽命很長，若為了應對一項隨時可能被取消的關稅類目就決定建廠，無異於一場豪賭。特朗普在第一任期內推行的關稅政策，未能阻止美國製造業就業人數的長期下滑，但卻實實在在地推高了下游生產商的成本，比如那些依賴進口鋼材的企業。
It would be naive to think that the tariff regime will be settled on April 2nd. The president exults in his power to dole out punishment and grant exemptions at will. It makes companies and countries beat a path to his door to beg for mercy. In contrast to his first term, Mr Trump seems little concerned by the falls his policies cause in financial markets. And this time his staff are proving to be pliant. Scott Bessent, a hedge-fund titan turned treasury secretary, used to be a source of comfort to investors. He now says that market corrections are “healthy” and the economy could benefit from a “detox”.
如果認為關稅制度會在4月2日塵埃落定，那可就太天真了。特朗普沉迷於可以隨意懲罰、隨心豁免的權力，這使得各國企業和政府紛紛上門求情，試圖乞得他的垂憐。與首個任期相比，如今的特朗普似乎並不關心其政策導致金融市場下跌。而這一次，他的團隊也更加言聽計從。對沖基金巨頭出身的財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）曾是投資者們的一粒“定心丸”。如今他卻表示，市場調整是“健康的”，並且經濟可以從“排毒”中受益。
Although Mr Trump is committed to tariffs, he is hardly a details man: his unpredictability partly reflects his malleability. This creates an opportunity. His advisers are debating how to implement his agenda. Some reportedly favour using emergency powers only as a stopgap during which the more studious approach of his first term—in which tariffs followed investigations—can be resurrected. Establishing even a bare-bones process would represent a big improvement.
儘管特朗普熱衷於動用關稅手段，卻並非注重細節之人：其難以捉摸的行事風格，部分折射出他易受外界影響的特質。這反而創造了機會。他的幕僚團隊圍繞如何實施其計劃爭論不已。據報道，有的顧問傾向於僅把緊急權力當作權宜之計，在此期間，特朗普在第一任期中更為審慎、先調查後加徵關稅的方式有可能重新啟用。即便只是建立起基本的決策流程，也標誌著巨大的進步。
The most beautiful word in the dictionary
詞典中最美的詞
America’s trade partners must also consider how they can stabilise the situation. It will be tempting to retaliate on April 2nd, as many countries have against existing levies. But retaliation carries a cost, because it brings economic pain, and because it might stoke further escalation from America. For most countries retaliation is simply self-defeating. Even those who have the clout to push back should be careful how they use it.
美國的貿易伙伴也必須思考如何穩定局勢。鑑於許多國家已經針對現有關稅採取了報復措施，它們多半也會在 4 月 2 日再度反擊。但報復並非沒有代價——既會拖累經濟，也可能招致美國變本加厲的關稅制裁。對大多數國家而言，報復只會適得其反、傷及自身。即便是那些有實力進行反擊的國家，也應當謹慎行事。
Better, then, to offset the damage America is inflicting. Given Mr Trump’s reciprocal approach, some countries may be able to win concessions by lowering their own tariffs. And countries could bring down the barriers that exist among themselves, integrating with each other as Mr Trump pulls America back. The president is intent on wreaking trade havoc. It need not span the globe.
因此，更好的作法是彌補美國造成的傷害。考慮到特朗普那睚眥必報的個性，一些國家或許能夠透過降低自身關稅來獲得一些讓步。此外，在特朗普推動美國“與世隔絕”之際，各國可以降低彼此之間存在的貿易壁壘，增進相互間的經貿合作。特朗普執意攪亂貿易秩序，但這種混亂未必會讓全球都陷入深淵。
翻譯組：
Leon，男，駐外民工，經濟學人讀者
Cassie，ECNU口譯小菜雞，體制內摸爬滾打教書匠
Mai，男，經濟學博士，世界那麼大，我想活得久一點
審校組：
Charlie，剃刀邊緣無比鋒利
Collin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻譯
風箏，熱愛生活熱愛翻譯熱愛搞錢熱愛貓咪
3
感想
“地球村”的概念首次由美國提出，現在時過境遷，地球村已不復存在。區域化小聯盟走上舞臺。特朗普的確厲害，一張嘴就把全世界攪得不太平。海內外幾乎是清一色的批評特朗普、但似乎也沒什麼用。川爺爺他主要就一個核心目標。美國製造業迴流，美國再次偉大。
目標明確，行動力強。
被當傻子一樣罵得這麼慘，特朗普為何執意要增加關稅？有兩個原因：1、美國國債債臺高築，外債佔比GDP125%，債務龐大，沒有更多稅收，政府都破產；2、製造業迴流，進口到美國都要高收稅，但是要辦法可以避免，去美國投資建廠。前幾年有一陣風，中國企業集體去越南、東南亞建廠。關稅被加的這麼猛，在越南投資的工廠估計要哭暈在廁所，白去了。
接下來面臨的一個問題，如果是美國投資建廠，是不是一個好的選擇。表面看，稅收為零。但是潛在的風險不小。美國本土的人力、管理費、水電等成本相對較高，是筆不小的開支。關稅上省得錢可能還不夠覆蓋本土費用。
4
願景
打造
獨立思考 | 國際視野 | 英文學習