特朗普口中美國被“偷走”的工作崗位到底是如何消失的？
英國前國防大臣本·華萊士（Ben Wallace），在《每日電訊報》（The Telepgrah）上發表了一篇文章探討其中的深層原因。
他在《美國就業崗位並非被偷，而是自身流失》中指出，特朗普關稅政策的本質是為了將美國就業崗位的流失歸咎於他國，而實際上，美國製造業的早已衰退，這與其工會僵化、生產效率低下、產品缺乏競爭力息息相關。
上世紀80年代末，華萊士的父母搬到了政治和科技都和平向好的賓夕法尼亞州，彼時的賓夕法尼亞州政治生態由傳統共和黨人與“藍狗（blue dog）民主黨”共同構成。美國也沒有太多的極端主義，世人尚未聽聞新保守主義或茶黨運動。矽谷正孕育著蘋果、微軟等科技革命的火種。
In the late 1980s, Pennsylvania was a mixture of old-school Republicans and "blue dog" Democrats – a caucus of the fiscally responsible centre Left.There weren't many extremes. The world hadn't heard of neo-cons or Tea Party politics. Nor had US cities suffered at the hands of hard-Left "progressives" bent on defunding the police. It was a bi-partisan world.It was also about that time that America was pioneering exciting new tech industries in Silicon Valley – Apple and Microsoft had been founded only a decade earlier in the 1970s.
正是在這樣的時代背景下，毫無出口實績的房地產開發商特朗普突然開始高喊“全世界都在佔美國便宜”。誰也不明白他究竟是如何得出這種觀點的，但這成為了他數十年來政治動員的核心策略。
It was in this era that Trump decided the "world" was "ripping the US off".How a property developer with casinos and no real exports to his name came to such a view is anyone's guess. But it is certainly when he discovered that grievance politics had a certain ring to it. The president has ploughed that particular furrow for decades.
華萊士指出，民粹主義政治家擅長訴苦政治（grievance politics）。他們總是大喊大叫地抱怨，卻對解決方案束手無策。當特朗普將關稅大棒揮向只有企鵝棲息的地區，或是本就對美存在貿易逆差的英國，以及生產耐克運動鞋為美國帶來利潤的越南等國時，其政策的荒誕性暴露無遺。
Populist politicians are good at grievance politics. They are always loud on the complaints but woeful on the solutions.Donald Trump's tariffs lasted less time than Rachel Reeves's last Budget before they started to be exposed for their crackpot thinking. Some countries that got a new tariff are populated solely by penguins and others such as the UK actually have a trade deficit. Vietnam makes products such as Nike trainers that profit US shareholders.
但特朗普關稅政策本質並不是為了解決貿易失衡，而是試圖將俄亥俄州、明尼蘇達州和底特律的產業空心化歸咎於他國陰謀。他認為這些工作崗位離開美國是因為其他國家合謀偷走了它們，用他的話說就是“欺騙了我們”。
But Trump's tariffs are not about persuading other countries to reduce unfair tariffs. It is about bringing jobs back to Ohio, Minnesota and Detroit. Where he is fundamentally wrong is his belief that those jobs left the US because other countries conspired to steal them. To "rip us off" as he put it.
華萊士在文章中一針見血地指出，特朗普堅信美國發明瞭一切，美國製造天下第一，認為美國消費者選擇外國商品純屬受騙。但現實情況卻是：歐洲人不再購買美國汽車，並不是因為關稅，而是美國汽車根本不夠好。
當1980年代末日本的雷克薩斯進入美國市場時，其各方面都勝過奧茲莫比爾（Oldsmobile）、克萊斯勒（Oldsmobile）汽車的品質，讓美國人無法理解一個高工資的經濟體怎麼能製造出頂級工業品。
Trump's starting point is that America invented everything and makes the best of everything. He reasons that if American consumers buy foreign goods, it is because they are tricked into doing so.The reality is very different and has been for decades. People stopped buying American cars in Europe because, with the exception of Teslas, they are just not good enough. It wasn't because of a tariff. When the Japanese Lexus arrived in the US in the late 1980s Americans couldn't understand how a high-wage economy could make a car that beat Oldsmobile and Chrysler in every measure.
華萊士認為，雷克薩斯的成功源自豐田的精益生產體系，而美國汽車業的衰落，則與好鬥的工會、低效的生產力和過時的設計密不可分。
Lexus succeeded globally because Toyota, its maker, had the skills, the productivity and the design. The US, like parts of the UK car industry, failed because of belligerent unions, low productivity and poor design.
由於華萊士的家族幾代人都從事製造業，因此他十分清楚，從鞋類製造、威士忌釀造到航空航天，製造業的命脈始終是技術而不是關稅。當英美沉迷於稅收優惠的短期刺激，而持續削減職業教育投入、壓制企業家友好環境時，就業崗位的流失早已註定。如果想要留住本國的工作崗位，就需要解決這些問題。
For manufacturers – engineering, shoes, whisky and aerospace. Here, skills are more important than tax. They are the oxygen of the manufacturing sector.It won't be tariffs that win back US jobs but skills. The UK, like the US, is guilty of not investing enough in our further education and skills. And in the UK, especially, we are also guilty of not fostering an environment friendly to entrepreneurs. We need to fix all that if we are to grow and keep our jobs here.
編輯：黎霈融
來源：每日電訊報
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