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當地時間7月26日，美聯儲宣佈上調聯邦基金利率目標區間25個基點到5.25%至5.5%之間。自2022年3月開始截至目前的十二次政策會議中，美聯儲為對抗通貨膨脹已進行了十一次加息，從最初的零利率加到目前的5.25%至5.5%，也達到了22年來的最高水平，符合市場此前預期。
美聯儲在當天發表的宣告中說，最近的指標表明美國經濟活動持續溫和擴張，近幾個月就業增長強勁，失業率保持低位，但通貨膨脹率仍居高不下。美國銀行體系健康而富有韌性，家庭和企業信貸條件收緊可能會對經濟活動、就業和通脹造成壓力，但影響程度仍不確定。
美聯儲公開市場委員會依然高度關注通脹風險，為實現就業和通脹目標，決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間提高到5.25%至5.5%之間。美聯儲將繼續按照此前的計劃減持美國國債和機構債券，並致力於把通脹率降至2%的目標水平。
美聯儲主席鮑威爾在會後舉行的記者會上表示，自去年初以來，美聯儲大幅收緊貨幣政策，但貨幣緊縮政策的效果尚未全部顯現。美國的通脹自去年年中以來有所放緩，但仍遠高於2%的長期目標。美聯儲依然致力於使通脹率回到2%的目標，這一過程還有很長的路要走。
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WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Now the latest in the Federal Reserve's campaign to raise interest rates and bring down inflation. That effort is almost a year-and-a-half-old now.
At the same time, Fed Chair Jay Powell wants to tame inflation without tipping the economy into a recession, which is a tall order.
Economics correspondent Paul Solman helps us unpack the thinking behind the Fed's moves.
PAUL SOLMAN: As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its key lending rate again today after a pause in June to the highest level in 22 years.
Chair Jay Powell: JEROME POWELL, Federal Reserve Chairman: Powell inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.
PAUL SOLMAN: A long way to go, despite signs that inflation is ebbing.
EDWARD AL-HUSSAINY, Columbia Threadneedle: Rental inflation, the cost of housing, which was rising very rapidly in the course of 2021-2022, is now reversing.
PAUL SOLMAN: And even wages are moderating, says analyst Ed Al-Hussainy.
EDWARD AL-HUSSAINY: Wage growth as well peaked about a year ago.
It's decelerating. It's not decelerating as fast as inflation, but it is decelerating.
People have come back into the labor force from the sidelines, particularly women. So the size of the pool of people available to work is higher today than it was in 2019, and that's taking a lot of pressure off of wages, and, therefore, inflation that's related to services that is connected to the labor market.
PAUL SOLMAN: No wonder then that the Consumer Price Index was up just 3 percent in June. A year ago, it was embracing 9.1.
But Chair Powell worries about putting too much stock in one month's data.
JEROME POWELL: The June CPI report, of course, was welcome, but it's only one report, one month's data.
Inflation repeatedly has proved stronger than we and other forecasters have expected.
And at some point, that may change. We have to be ready to follow the data. And given how far we have come, we can afford to be a little patient, as well as resolute, as we let this unfold.
EDWARD AL-HUSSAINY: We are not sure that the inflation story is finished.
PAUL SOLMAN: Moreover, adds Ed Al-Hussainy: EDWARD AL-HUSSAINY: And we're not sure that higher inflation is not being embedded in the economy, in the psychology of people's everyday decision-making.
PAUL SOLMAN: In short, our inflation expectations, as shoppers, as workers, they really matter, says economist Julia Coronado.
JULIA CORONADO, MacroPolicy Perspectives: For the Fed, that inflation psychology is a very important element of inflation dynamics. If we believe that the Fed is going to control inflation, that gives rise to behavior that reinforces that low inflation. Companies stop raising prices. People stop demanding cost-of-living increases. And that, in turn, helps sort of lock in lower inflation.
PAUL SOLMAN: So the Fed thinks it's doing it's duty, trying to discourage us from spending in order to slow down economic activity, says former Fed official Krishna Guha.
KRISHNA GUHA, Vice Chairman, Evercore ISI: The Fed has promised to deliver 2 percent inflation. Now, that doesn't mean they have to be inflation nutcases and crash the economy to get inflation back to 2 at the very earliest opportunity.
But they do need to seriously commit to get it there over the next few years.
PAUL SOLMAN: To maintain credibility.
But Guha admits prices rose for reasons that had nothing to do with the Fed.
KRISHNA GUHA: The big forces that drove inflation higher were coming, obviously, from fundamental shocks to the economy.
PAUL SOLMAN: The forces you have heard here and elsewhere beaten drumlike, COVID, supply chains, Ukraine, corporate opportunism, stimulus checks.
KRISHNA GUHA: A big part of the process by which inflation hopefully eventually returns to target is just that those big shocks dissipate and the dislocations in the economy gradually sort themselves out.
PAUL SOLMAN: In which case, says Ed Al-Hussainy: EDWARD AL-HUSSAINY: And the mystery is whether the Fed had anything to do with it.
PAUL SOLMAN: But, even so, the Fed's using, well, the standby arrow in its quiver, targeting higher interest rates, even at the risk of recession, to hit its bullseye, 2 percent inflation.
EDWARD AL-HUSSAINY: Think about the problem the Fed is trying to solve is this. Let's pick a number for inflation that will be immaterial to people's everyday decision-making, to how they bargain for wages, how they make consumption and purchasing decisions around large items like cars or homes.
Does the Fed have the luxury to re examine the target in today's environment? Categorically, the answer is no.
PAUL SOLMAN: Finally, a looming question: Is this likely to be the last Fed rate hike for a while? EDWARD AL-HUSSAINY: The Fed's tightening cycle is coming to an end. They are very likely to pause in the course of the next several meetings. And that's a world away from where they were six to 12 months ago.
PAUL SOLMAN: For his part, Powell was noncommittal about what the Fed might do at the next meeting.
JEROME POWELL: In September, we're going to look at two additional job reports, two additional CPI reports, lots of activity data. And that's what we're going to look at. And it's really dependent so much on the data. And we just don't have it yet.
PAUL SOLMAN: But, by September, they will.
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Good afternoon.
My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.
We understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal.
Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve.
Without price stability, the economy doesn’t work for anyone.
In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.
Since early last year, the FOMC has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy.
Today, we took another step by raising our policy interest rate 1/4 percentage point, and we are continuing to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.
We have covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt.
Looking ahead, we will continue to take a data-dependent approach in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.
I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.
Growth in consumer spending appears to have slowed from earlier in the year.
Although activity in the housing sector has picked up somewhat, it remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates.
And higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.
The labor market remains very tight.
Over the past three months, job gains averaged 244 thousand jobs per month, a pace below that seen earlier in the year but still a strong pace.
The unemployment rate remains low, at 3.6 percent.
There are some continuing signs that July 26, 2023 Chair Powell’s Press Conference PRELIMINARY Page 2 of 3 supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance.
The labor force participation rate has moved up since last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years.
Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, and job vacancies have declined so far this year.
While the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.
Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent.
Over the 12 months ending in May, total PCE prices rose 3.8 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.6 percent.
In June, the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, came in at 3.0 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 4.8 percent.
Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year.
Nonetheless, the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.
Despite elevated inflation, longerterm inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.
My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation.
We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective.
At today’s meeting the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, bringing the target range to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
We are also continuing the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings.
July 26, 2023 Chair Powell’s Press Conference PRELIMINARY Page 3 of 3 With today’s action, we have raised our policy rate by 5-1/4 percentage points since early last year.
We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing and investment.
It will take time, however, for the full effects of our ongoing monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.
In addition, the economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.
In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.
We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks.
We remain committed to bringing inflation back to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.
Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions.
Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.
To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country.
Everything we do is in service to our public mission.
We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.
Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
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