1
思維導圖：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太陽，還要繼續努力的亞古獸
翻譯組全體成員如下：
2
Leaders | Recession and succession
經濟學人社論｜衰退與易主
英文部分選自經濟學人20250426期社論板塊
Leaders | Recession and succession
經濟學人社論｜衰退與易主
經濟學人社論｜經濟衰退與權利更迭
President Trump’s attacks on the Fed are not over
特朗普對美聯儲的攻勢尚未止息
Jerome Powell wins a reprieve. But expect more showdowns between the White House and the Fed
鮑威爾暫獲喘息，但白宮與美聯儲博弈將持續升級
備註：對於本篇文章的標題，組裡的小夥伴們想了兩個譯文，如果正在讀這篇文章的你對標題也有些想法，歡迎在評論區留言。
WHEN Donald Trump is making economic policy, a reprieve is little more than a pause for breath. In February investors cheered when he postponed tariffs on Canada and Mexico; by April he was torching the global trading system. So it is with his latest about-face. On April 22nd the president said he had no plans to sack Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, having spent the week threatening to do just that. Is central-bank independence back? Only until the president’s mood swings again, or a different adviser has his ear.
在特朗普制定的經濟政策下，所謂“暫緩”不過就是片刻喘息。二月，特朗普暫緩對加拿大與墨西哥加徵關稅，當時投資者還歡聲一片；然而到了四月，特朗普就將關稅的烽火燒遍了全球貿易體系。他對美聯儲的態度也是180度大轉彎。4月22日，特朗普突然改口，聲稱無意撤換鮑威爾，而此前一週他一直威脅要讓鮑威爾捲鋪蓋走人。難道美聯儲要重獲獨立了嗎？恐怕僅能維持片刻，待到特朗普再次心猿意馬，亦或另有謀士進言，情況就另有不同了。
Mr Trump’s ultimate desire is not in doubt. The Fed has cut rates by only a percentage point since September, to 4.25-4.5%. Mr Trump has always disliked tight money, and covets the lower rates in Europe and elsewhere. And, by contrast with his first term, when the economy was mostly strong, he now faces the threat of a recession caused by his own foolish trade policy. As a result, Mr Trump is now searching for a scapegoat. Mr Powell, whom he calls a “major loser”, is candidate number one.
特朗普的終極訴求再清楚不過了。去年九月以來，美聯儲僅將利率下調1個百分點，將聯邦基金利率的目標區間降至4.25%-4.5%。特朗普一向對緊縮的貨幣政策深惡痛絕，又豔羨歐洲等地更低的利率。同時，美國現在的情況與他首個任期大相徑庭，當時經濟總體強勁，如今卻面臨衰退的威脅，罪魁禍首恰恰是特朗普那愚蠢的貿易政策。因此，特朗普亟需尋找替罪羔羊，而他口中的“頭號輸家”鮑威爾自然是頭號候選人。
The Fed thus remains vulnerable—at precisely the time when it must tackle an acute policy dilemma. Lower rates would indeed help America’s economy in one key respect. Consumer and business confidence are falling and financial markets already expect rate cuts worth at least three-quarters of a percentage point this year. A recession would typically call for more: the Fed usually lowers rates by four or five percentage points.
因此，美聯儲仍然深陷被動局面，而眼下它有一個棘手的政策困局亟待解決。降息的確能在關鍵層面提振美國經濟。當前消費者與企業信心持續下滑，金融市場普遍預測今年至少會有0.75個百分點的降息幅度。若經濟陷入衰退，則需要更大力度的降息，美聯儲通常需降息四到五個百分點方能應對。
Today’s situation is far from typical, however. Tariffs are pushing up prices; some forecasters say inflation could reach an annual rate of 4% by the end of the year. And investors are losing confidence in America: the dollar is down by 9% against a basket of major currencies since its peak in February, the S&P 500 index is down by 13% and bond yields have been volatile.
然而，今時不同往日。關稅政策正推高物價，部分預測機構稱，年底年化通脹率可能會升至4%。市場對美國的信心正在動搖，自2月觸及高點後，美元兌一籃子主要貨幣的匯率已下跌9%，標普500指數下挫13%，國債收益率持續震盪。
This dynamic, more typical of an emerging market, complicates Mr Powell’s task. A central bank with a stock of credibility can afford to ignore temporary inflation caused by one-off events such as tariffs. Its promise of low long-term inflation would anchor wages and prices. But the Fed’s reputation has been dented by its slow response to inflation during the covid-19 pandemic, and is now threatened further by Mr Trump’s interference. Investors are pricing in inflation risk. A variety of surveys show households’ expectations for inflation rising, over the long term as well as the next year.
這種常見於新興市場的動盪局面無疑增加了鮑威爾的工作難度。倘若央行信譽良好，那麼面對關稅等一過性事件所暫時引發的通脹，也可不進行政策調整。人們信任央行致力於長期低通脹的目標，這就不會引發太大的薪資和物價波動。但美聯儲本就因疫情期間行動遲緩而信譽受損，如今特朗普橫加干涉，使其公信力再遭重創。投資者正在為通脹風險定價。多項調查顯示，無論是長期還是未來一年，美國家庭對通脹的預期都在上升。
The Fed, in other words, may no longer have much credibility to fall back on. Yet if it puts containing inflation expectations above fighting a recession, Mr Trump’s displeasure will grow. If the dollar sell-off turns into a crisis, the situation could become excruciating. The Fed might have to choose how much money to lend to stressed financial institutions and even to foreign central banks, while trying to adhere to its mandate and keep its distance from Mr Trump.
換言之，如今美聯儲公信力日漸流失。然而，若美聯儲將遏制通脹預期置於應對衰退風險之上，特朗普只會更加不滿。一旦美元拋售演變成危機，局勢恐將不堪設想。屆時，美聯儲可能會左右為難，既要考慮借款規模，救本土金融機構於水火、甚至向外國央行施以援手，又要恪守其法定職責、與特朗普保持距離。
If Mr Trump does not sack Mr Powell first, a new chair will be appointed in May 2026. But Mr Trump cannot easily dominate the Fed. The Senate must confirm his choice (which explains why the current front-runner, Kevin Warsh, is a mainstream candidate known as an inflation hawk). Monetary policy is set by a 12-member committee. Even if the Supreme Court concurs with Mr Trump in a separate case that he can fire agency chiefs for policy choices, it has hinted at a carve-out to preserve the Fed’s autonomy. And Mr Powell could choose to stay on the Fed’s board under a new chair until 2028.
如果特朗普不先行罷免鮑威爾，新任美聯儲主席將於2026年5月上任。但特朗普想要完全左右美聯儲並非易事，其任命須由參議院首肯（這也是為何當前熱門候選人凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）乃通脹鷹派主流人物）。貨幣政策的最終決定權，掌握在由12人組成的委員會手中。最高法院縱使在另一宗案件中同意總統因政策分歧而撤換機構負責人，但也暗示了其將為美聯儲設立豁免條款，以維護其獨立性。鮑威爾也可選擇留任美聯儲擔任理事，直至2028年。
Yet constraints on Mr Trump are also potential flashpoints. A committee might restrain an errant chair, just as the markets seem to hold back Mr Trump. But using market scares to guide policy, rather than sound leadership and good judgment, is a recipe for making America vulnerable to confusion and instability. This week’s relief could be quickly forgotten.
然而，制約特朗普的各種枷鎖，也可能引爆新的衝突。就像市場力量可以在某種程度上牽制特朗普，委員會或可約束偏離正軌的主席。但以市場恐慌為政策導向，而非依靠明智領導、審慎判斷，這勢必會讓美國陷入動盪危局。海面的波濤終於在本週漸漸平息，但很可能只是暴風雨前的寧靜。
翻譯組：
Benjamin，初學翻譯，愛紅酒，愛美食
Trista，女，暴富不是夢想，是未來的現實
Cassie，ECNU口譯小菜雞，體制內摸爬滾打教書匠
審校組：
秋秋，仰臥起坐，都很快樂
Hannah, keep going, keep smiling.
George, the world is my oyster, 仗劍天涯 頂峰相見。
3
感想
本期感想：
VeRy，男，電氣民工，經濟學人資淺愛好者
這大概就是最初我想從事與自然科學有關的事的原因了。小時候的我覺得社科類的事，凡事沒有一個黑白分明的對錯，評判的標準只是站隊或者利益相關。而諸如數學、物理的正確與否依賴於對於自然的觀察，醫學的正確與否取決於病人是否康復，如此明瞭的判斷依據讓我們的努力不會因為各種站錯隊伍或者被迫奉獻等等而困擾。
但我還是太年輕了。
也許因為某種個人的喜好，或者為了最廣大利益，救治某些疾病時便可以指鹿為馬地說某些“藥”也是有效的，在統計資料上也是顧全大局，但身體卻十分誠實地選擇了對立面。而我們以為學醫是一件辛苦且謹慎的事業時，大量藝術、經濟領域的高階人才也在此“上下而求索”。令人感激涕零。
又也許在某些領域出現可能的突破時，誰來突破僅僅取決於他是不是Yau的弟子，或者說他願不願意臨時成為弟子。當然，大弟子與師傅反目成仇之類武俠書裡常見的情節在數學界也常有耳聞。我不禁感嘆，數學的真理大概確實掌握在少數人手裡。
我們在CSSCI投稿時，至少在我所經歷的領域，頂刊的作者幾乎就是經常開會的那一波人，往往是你投我的刊，我投你的刊，要麼自己投，要麼帶上弟子投，主打一個相互幫協。反正投來投去的內容也毫無新意，更無傷大雅，旁人想要見刊，投師拜門是必不可少的。
後來我逐漸就想明白了，畢竟人的第一屬性是其社會屬性，那麼所有的成就、聲望，必然也是社會的結果，那些像獨立騎士一般撇去一切雜念和社會影響，獨立闖蕩出一番事業的，幾乎是不可能的。無數先例已經證明，太超前的思想會被認為是瘋子，太超前的發明會被認為是異類，所以只能提倡微創新，這是一種既滿足人類的想象，又不會在現實中被擊潰的方法。自然界對於極端的處理結果也只是篩選其極端的基因，將其融入茫茫大眾之中，然後逐漸改變大眾，一蹴而就的飛躍所要面對的只能是懸崖峭壁。
4
願景
—END—