Don’t count on monetary policy to make housing affordable
別指望貨幣政策能讓人們買得起房
英文部分選自經濟學人20241221期財經板塊
Finance & economics | Free exchange
Don’t count on monetary policy to make housing affordable
Unless housebuilding picks up, neither cheap nor dear money will bring relief
除非建築業回暖，否則貨幣政策怎麼變化都不會帶來緩解
Why is housingso expensive? Explanations have tended to fall into two camps. One emphasises a gummed-up supply side: a range of restrictions on land use and nimby campaigners have stymied housebuilding across the rich world. The other camp focuses on demand: a long-term fall in real interest rates has bid up the prices of all assets. Cheaper credit means more expensive housing. Yet even as interest rates rose across the rich world in the early 2020s, prices barely budged. Why? A range of recent papers suggests that the interaction between fixed supply and changes in demand explains the puzzle.
為何房價如此高昂？通常有兩種解釋。一種強調的是供給側僵化：種種限制土地使用的措施和鄰避主義者阻礙了富裕國家的住房建設。另一種則關注需求側：實際利率長期下降，抬高了所有資產的價格。更廉價的信貸意味著更昂貴的房價。然而，即使在本世紀二十年代初期，眾多富裕國家的利率紛紛走高，房價卻幾乎沒有變動。這是為什麼呢？最近的一系列論文表明，答案也許就藏在固定的供給與變動的需求之間的相互作用中。
NIMBY或Nimby是英文短語not in my backyard（別在我家後院）的詞首字母縮寫，這個表達多以貶義的意味指那些因為某個社會建設專案要修在自家附近而對此表示反對的公眾意見，即“鄰避效應”。
For most people, a house is a home. To economists it is an income-generating investment. Both are right. On the one hand, for landlords that income is rent. On the other, owner-occupiers receive their income in kind: the consumption of the “housing services” a home provides. Either way the price is largely the same; in essence, both receive rent. For the purpose of inflation statistics this is known as “owner equivalent rent” (oer), and is the main way in which housing shows up in consumer-price indices.oer accounts for about a quarter of the American inflation measure.
對大多數人而言，房子就是家。對經濟學家而言，房子是能帶來收益的投資投資。二者皆有道理。一方面，對房東而言，收益就是租金。另一方面，自住者獲得的是實物收益：享受房屋提供的“住房服務”。無論哪種服務，價格都大致相同；從本質上講，他們都獲得了租金。在通貨膨脹統計中，這被稱為“業主等效租金”（OER），是住房在消費價格指數中的主要表現形式。OER 在美國的通脹衡量中佔比約四分之一。
註釋：
業主等效租金（Owners' Equivalent Rent, OER）是指估算自有住房的業主如果將其住
All else being equal, lower interest rates ought to lead to higher house prices. The ratio of rent to a house’s price is similar to the yield on a bond. Both can, in turn, be compared to the interest rate the central bank sets on money. Across financial markets the rates of return on different assets, adjusting for different levels of risk, should converge—otherwise a landlord could sell their portfolio of houses and lock in a higher return in the stockmarket or vice versa. A cut in the central-bank rate raises the market price of bonds, shares and houses in the same way to keep the rates of return in sync. Some economists used this principle to identify a housing bubble before the crash of 2007 as the ratio of house prices to rents rose above what could be justified by interest costs.
在其他條件相同的情況下，利率降低理應推高房價。房產的租金和房價之比類似於債券的收益率，兩者都可以與央行設定的貨幣利率進行比較。金融市場中，不同資產的收益率在根據各自的風險水平調整後應該趨於一致，否則，房東大可以把自己的房產投資組合賣了，去炒股以鎖定更高的收益，反之亦然。央行下調利率會以同樣的方式提高債券、股票和房產的市場價格，從而促使收益率同步。一些經濟學家利用這一原理，在2007年房地產崩盤前已然察覺了房地產泡沫的存在，因為房價與租金之比不斷上升，超過了利息成本所能解釋的合理範圍。
In its latest quarterly review, the Bank for International Settlements (bis) examines what a gummed-up housing market means for monetary policy. Ideally, developers should respond to the higher prices brought on by lower interest rates by building more houses and hiring more workers, generating inflationary pressure; higher rates should have the opposite effect. That response has been diminishing over time. During the 1970s, the authors calculate, a 1% increase in home prices produced a 6% increase in new construction; by the 2000s this had dropped to 4%. The authors put this down to a combination of stricter land-use regulation and falling productivity in construction. Rather than stimulating investment, monetary policy works through other channels: fewer new homes are built, and existing ones become more expensive.
國際清算銀行（BIS）在最新的季度報告中探討了僵化的房地產市場對貨幣政策的影響。理想情況下，開發商為應對低利率帶來的高房價，應該增加住房建設，並僱傭更多工人，從而產生通脹壓力。而高利率則應該產生相反的效果。斗轉星移，這種效應越來越小。據報告作者計算，上世紀七十年代，房價每上漲1%，新建住房數量就會增加6%；而到了本世紀初期，這一比例下降到了4%。作者將其歸因於更嚴格的土地使用監管和建築業生產率的下降。貨幣政策並未有效刺激投資，而是透過其他渠道發揮作用：新建房屋減少，現有房屋價格上漲。
Whereas many asset prices adjust almost immediately to changes in monetary policy, the housing market takes longer. It can take months or even years to buy or sell a property. Thebis researchers find that in areas where the supply of homes responds to higher prices there is a one-off shift in house prices: over about a year they rise by about 1.5% following a one-percentage-point cut in interest rates; the rents-to-prices ratio falls and then stabilises. When construction is slow to respond, however, house prices just keep on rising. The authors think this might be because would-be homeowners extrapolate that house prices will continue to rise in the future, which could compensate for a lower yield. Rather than boosting construction, homeowners get a windfall and spend more, generating inflationary pressure through a different channel. They could, for instance, splurge on restaurants and holidays, pushing up wages in those industries.
許多資產類別的價格對貨幣政策的調整十分敏感，相比之下，房產市場的反應則更為遲緩，因為買賣房屋的過程常常會持續數月甚至數年。國際清算銀行的研究者們發現，在那些房屋供應受價格上漲影響的地區，房價會發生一次性的上調：利率每降低一個百分點，一年後房價會上漲大約1.5%，而租金房價之比先是下降然後趨於穩定。不過，當新建樓市反應遲緩的時候，房價會持續上漲。作者認為，這可能是因為潛在的購房者預期樓市價格會在未來持續攀升，因此彌補了較低的資產收益率。這種情況中，不僅不能刺激住房建設，現有房主反而因房價上漲獲得一筆意外之財，隨之增加消費，從另一條路徑帶來通脹壓力。例如，他們可能在餐飲和旅遊中揮霍，從而推高這些行業的薪資水平。
That does not mean frustrated young renters should hope for an increase in interest rates to bring prices down and homeownership within reach. Monetary policy changes the appeal of owning a home. A paper by Daniel Greenwald of New York University and Adam Guren of Boston University looks at how the rental and house-buying markets interact with each other. In theory, as house prices rise, landlords should be willing to sell to wannabe homeowners. Bringing more sellers into the market relieves some of the upward pressure on house prices after a fall in the cost of credit. It also means the rate of homeownership can increase even if not many new homes are built. Yet in reality this effect is not borne out. The rental market and the homeownership market are almost entirely segmented.
然而，這並不代表著沮喪的年輕租房一族應寄希望於加息來壓低房價，從而實現購房夢想。貨幣政策會改變擁有房產的吸引力。紐約大學的丹尼爾·格林瓦爾德（Daniel Greenwald）和波士頓大學的亞當·古倫（Adam Guren）的一篇文章研究了房屋租賃和買賣市場的關係。理論上，隨著房價上漲，房東應該更願意把房屋賣給購房者。更多賣家進入市場可以緩解貸款成本下降而帶來的房價上漲壓力。這也意味著，即便新建房屋數量不多，房屋擁有率仍然可以提高。然而，現實是這一效應沒有出現。租賃市場和買賣市場幾乎完全割裂。
Heads homeowners win, tails renters lose
When rates rise, and mortgages become more expensive, renting becomes more attractive. That increases demand for the relatively fixed number of rental properties. At the same time, landlords are offered higher risk-adjusted yields on other assets and need to be compensated for missing out on them. A paper focusing on Ireland by Juan Castellanos of the European University Institute and Andrew Hannon and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo of the European Central Bank finds that higher rates actually tend to push rents up. In the same vein, a paper by Daniel Dias of the Federal Reserve and João Duarte of the Nova Business School, focusing on America, finds that tight money can increase “shelter” inflation.
利率上升時，貸款成本上升，租房變得更具有吸引力。這增加了對數量相對穩定的可租賃房產的需求。與此同時，房東的機會成本包括了其他資產享有的更高的風險調整後收益，因此需要提高租金獲得額外補償。歐洲大學學院（European University Institute）的胡安·卡斯特亞諾斯（Juan Castellanos）以及歐洲央行的安德魯·漢農（Andrew Hannon）和貢薩洛·帕斯–帕爾多（Gonzalo Paz-Pardo） 合作的一篇研究愛爾蘭的文章發現，實際上，高息通常會推高租金。美聯儲的丹尼爾·迪亞斯（Daniel Dias）和諾瓦商學院（Nova Business School）的若昂·杜阿爾特（João Duarte） 研究美國市場時得出了類似的結論：緊縮的貨幣政策可能加劇“住房”通脹。
That helps explain some of the recent puzzles of the housing market. Higher rents mean that house prices do not have to fall so far to maintain the yield differential between housing and other assets after monetary policy is tightened. Shelter inflation, meanwhile, has been one of the most stubborn components in the last mile of disinflation for the Federal Reserve. Deniz Igan of thebis calculates that for potential buyers, who care about home prices, their income and mortgage costs, housing is more unaffordable than at any time since the meltdown of 2007. As long as housebuilding remains weak, neither cheap nor expensive money will bring relief.
這就在一定程度上解答了最近房產市場的一些疑問。更高的租金意味著，在貨幣政策收緊後，即便房價不變也能維持房屋和其他資產的收益率差額。與此同時，住房通脹一直以來就是美聯儲抑制通脹的“最後一公里”中最頑固的部分之一。國際清算銀行的德尼茲·伊甘（Deniz Igan）的計算表明，對於關注房價、收入和按揭成本的潛在購房者，當前的購房成本已升至2007年房地產泡沫破裂後的最高點。只要房屋建設持續疲軟，無論貨幣政策收緊還是放鬆，都無助於緩解當下的購房壓力。
翻譯組：
Dreamian: 尋找方向
Humi，學習財經的金融小白，不負韶華，平視世界
校對組：
Alexis, Less is more
Cecilia，今年過得貴婦一點
Ithil, or be more cruel, love, and so be kind
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