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思維導圖：
Angela， 心之所向，無問西東
翻譯組全體成員如下：
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Leaders | Biting the hand that funds
社論| 自斷財路
英文部分選自經濟學人20250412期社論板塊
Leaders | Biting the hand that funds
社論| 自斷財路
How a dollar crisis would unfold
美元危機將如何上演
If investors keep selling American assets, a grim fate awaits the world economy
如果投資者繼續拋售美國資產，全球經濟將面臨嚴峻挑戰
THE DOLLAR is meant to be a source of safety. Lately, however, it has been a cause of fear. Since its peak in mid-January the greenback has fallen by over 9% against a basket of major currencies. Two-fifths of that fall has happened since April 1st, even as the yield on ten-year Treasuries has crept up by 0.2 percentage points. That mix of rising yields and a falling currency is a warning sign: if investors are fleeing even though returns are up, it must be because they think America has become more risky. Rumours are rife that big foreign asset managers are dumping greenbacks.
美元本是避險工具，但近期卻成為了恐懼之源。美元價值於1月中旬達到峰值，之後美元兌一籃子主要貨幣匯率便一路下跌，跌幅超過9%，並且五分之二的跌幅發生在4月1日後，即便美國十年期國債收益率微幅增長0.2個百分點。“收益率增加卻伴隨美元走弱”的情形傳遞出危險訊號：如果在收益走高的背景下，投資者仍選擇撤離，那麼原因則一定是他們認為美國風險性加劇。多家大型外國資產管理機構正在拋售美元的傳聞傳得沸沸揚揚。
For decades investors have counted on the stability of American assets, making them the keystones of global finance. The depth of a $27trn market helps make Treasuries a haven; the dollar dominates trade in everything from goods and commodities to derivatives. The system is buttressed by the Federal Reserve, which promises low inflation, and by America’s sturdy governance, under which foreigners and their money have been welcome and secure. In just a few weeks President Donald Trump has replaced these ironclad assumptions with stomach-churning doubts.
數十年來，美國資產以穩定性贏得了投資者的信賴，成為了全球金融體系的基石。價值27萬億美元的龐大規模讓美國國債成為了避風港；並且美元主宰了從普通商品與大宗商品到金融衍生品的各種貿易品類。支撐這一體系的是美聯儲和美國政府，前者致力於實現低通脹，後者則依靠紮實有效的管理，為海外投資者和資金營造開放、安全的投資環境。但在短短幾周內，美國總統特朗普就親手摧毀了這些這些鐵律般的共識，取而代之的是令人無所適從的猜測。
This crisis-in-the-making was created in the White House. Mr Trump’s reckless trade war has raised tariffs by roughly a factor of ten and created economic uncertainty. Once the envy of the world, America’s economy is now courting recession, as tariffs rupture supply chains, boost inflation and punish consumers.
危機正在慢慢顯現，白宮是始作俑者。特朗普不計後果地發動貿易戰，不僅將關稅推高了近十倍，還催生了經濟的不確定性。關稅糾紛會擾亂供應鏈體系，刺激通脹，損害消費者，曾讓全球豔羨的美國經濟，如今也開始衰退。
This comes as America’s historically bad fiscal position is becoming even worse. Net debts stand at about 100% of GDP; the budget deficit over the past year, of 7%, was astonishingly high for a healthy economy. Yet in its quest to renew and extend tax cuts from Mr Trump’s first term, Congress wants to borrow still more. On April 10th it approved a budget blueprint that could add $5.8trn in deficits over the next decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a think-tank. That would boost the deficit by another 2 percentage points and exceeds the combined total value of Mr Trump’s first-term tax cuts, the extra spending in the covid-19 pandemic and Joe Biden’s stimulus and infrastructure bills. It could double the pace at which the debt-to-GDP ratio rises in the coming years.
這樣一來，美國一向糟糕的財政狀況更加不堪。淨債務幾乎已經相當於GDP的100%；對一個健康的經濟體而言，去年7%的財政預算赤字可謂是高到令人咋舌。但為了進一步擴大和延續特朗普第一任期內頒佈的減稅政策，美國國會打算繼續舉債。據智庫盡責聯邦預算委員會的資料，國會在4月10日透過的預算藍圖可能導致未來十年給美國新增5.8萬億美元赤字，不僅讓赤字率攀升2個百分點，還會讓整體赤字超過特朗普第一任期減稅政策、疫情期間的額外支出與拜登的經濟刺激和基礎設施法案的三者之和。未來幾年內，美國負債率（債務與GDP之比）的上升速度或將翻倍。
What makes this economic downturn and the loss of fiscal discipline so explosive is the fact that markets are starting to doubt whether Mr Trump can govern America competently or consistently. The shambolic, incoherent way the tariffs were calculated, unveiled and delayed was a mockery of policymaking. On-again, off-again exemptions and sectoral tariffs promote lobbying. For decades America has carefully signalled its dedication to a strong dollar. Today some White House advisers are talking about the reserve currency as if it were a burden to be shared—using coercion if necessary.
這場經濟衰退和財政失序之所以如此轟動，是因為市場開始質疑特朗普的執政能力和政策一致性。以混亂且無條理的方式計算、公佈和延遲關稅，已成為政策制定的笑柄。時斷時續的豁免和行業關稅更助長了遊說。幾十年來，美國始終向外傳遞“強勢美元”的謹慎取向。如今，一些白宮顧問談論到儲備貨幣時，彷彿它是一個需要分擔的負擔——必要時不惜動用脅迫手段。
Inevitably, this puts the Federal Reserve under strain. Mr Trump is pressing the central bank to cut interest rates. The courts are likely to stop him sacking Fed governors at will, but he will be able to nominate a pliant new Fed chair in 2026. Meanwhile, the president’s other policies—such as shipping undocumented migrants to El Salvador without a hearing, or harassing law firms that displease him—make it possible to think that foreign creditors’ rights could suffer.
這般亂局不可避免地向美聯儲施加壓力。特朗普正在施壓央行降息，法院可能阻止他隨意解僱美聯儲理事，但到2026年他將有權提名一位“配合工作”的新美聯儲主席。與此同時，總統的其他政策，例如未經聽證會將非法移民運送到薩爾瓦多，或是打壓令他不悅的律師事務所，使人們認為外國債權人的權利可能會隨之受到影響。
All this has created a risk premium for American assets. The shocking thing is that a full-blown bond-market crisis is also easy to imagine. Foreigners own $8.5trn of government debt, a bit under a third of the total; more than half of that is held by private investors, who cannot be cajoled by diplomacy or threatened with tariffs. America must refinance $9trn of debt over the next year. If demand for Treasuries weakens, the impact will quickly feed through to the budget, which, owing to high debts and short maturities, is sensitive to interest rates.
凡此種種，已為美國資產平添風險溢價。令人震驚的是，債券市場危機的全面爆發危在旦夕。外國人擁有政府債務達8.5億美元，略低於總額的三分之一；其中一半以上由私營投資者持有，這些資本既不受外交斡旋左右，也不懼關稅威脅。美國必須在明年為9萬億美元的債務再融資。一旦國債需求走弱，其影響將迅速體現到預算中，由於高負債和短期限的特點，財政預算對利率變化十分敏感。
What would Congress do then? When markets collapsed during the global financial crisis and the pandemic, it acted forcefully. But those crises required it to spend, not to impose cuts. This time it would need to take an axe to entitlements and raise taxes quickly. You need only consider the make-up of Congress and the White House to see that the markets might have to impose a lot of pain before the government could agree on what to do. As America dithered, the shock could spread from Treasuries to the rest of the financial system, bringing defaults and hedge-fund blow-ups. That is the sort of behaviour you would expect in an emerging market.
那麼國會將以何種措施應對呢？回顧全球金融危機與疫情期間的市場崩盤，國會的行動強而有力。但彼時危機只需大開財政水閘，而不是強行削減開支。這一次，國會需要削減福利並迅速提高稅收。只需審視一下國會和白宮的組成便知，在政府的應對措施達成一致之前，市場可能得施加很大的壓力。美國搖擺不定，其衝擊可能會從美國國債蔓延到金融體系的其他部分，引爆違約與對沖基金爆倉，這般情景本該是在新興市場中司空見慣。
The Fed, for its part, would face a painful dilemma. It could buy assets to steady the ship. But it would not want to appear to be monetising the debt of an uncreditworthy government—an especially risky move when inflation is high. Could it strike the balance between emergency lending and monetary financing? And if it was not bailing out Mr Trump, would he approve of it lending dollars to foreign central banks that lack liquidity, as it usually does in a crisis?
美聯儲將面臨一個棘手的兩難局面。一方面，它可以透過購買資產來穩定市場局勢，但另一方面，它顯然不願被視為在為缺乏信用的政府債務提供貨幣化支援，尤其是在高通脹環境下，這種做法風險極高。美聯儲能否在緊急借貸與貨幣融資之間把握分寸？如果美聯儲沒有給特朗普政府兜底，那麼以後特朗普是否會同意危機期間，美聯儲像以往一樣，向流動性短缺的外國央行提供資金自持？
A currency is only as good as the government that backs it. The longer America’s political system fails to grapple with its deficits or flirts with chaotic or discriminatory rules, the more likely will be a once-in-a-generation upheaval that pushes the global financial system into the unknown. Wherever things settled, the greenback’s diminished role would be a tragedy for America. True, some exporters would benefit from a weaker currency. But the dollar’s primacy reduces the cost of capital for everyone, from first-time homebuyers to blue-chip firms.
一種貨幣的價值取決於其背後政府的信譽。赤字問題拖得越久，或是政策反覆或實施差別化對待的情況持續的時間越長，就越有可能引發巨大的動盪，將全球金融體系拽入未知境地。無論最終結局如何，美元地位的衰落對美國而言都將是一場悲劇。誠然，有些出口商會從美元貶值中獲益。但美元的主導地位切實降低所有美國人的資本成本，不管是首次購房者還是藍籌企業皆受其惠。
Biting the hand that funds
過河拆橋
The world would suffer because the dollar has no equal—just pale imitations. The euro is backed by a big economy, but the euro zone does not produce enough safe assets. Switzerland is safe but small. Japan is big, but has its own vast debts. Gold and cryptocurrencies lack state backing. As investors tried one asset and then another, the hunt for safety could bring about destabilising booms and busts. The dollar system is not perfect, but it provides the stable ground on which today’s globalised economy is built. When investors doubt America’s creditworthiness, those foundations are in danger of cracking.
世界將因此遭受損失，因為美元沒有替代品，只有拙劣的效仿者。歐元有龐大的經濟體支撐，但歐元區安全資產供給不足；瑞士雖穩健但體量太小；日本規模可觀卻又債臺高築；黃金和加密貨幣缺乏國家信用背書。隨著投資者們不斷嘗試不同資產，對安全性的追逐可能引發破壞性的繁榮和蕭條週期。美元體系雖不完美，但它為當今全球化經濟的發展提供了穩定的根基。一旦投資者質疑美國信用，這些根基也會隨之土崩瓦解。
翻譯組：
Charlie，剃刀邊緣無比鋒利
Pay，一個堅定遠航的sailor
Shulin，非上上智，無了了心
審校組：
Rebecca，運動快樂星人
Lucian，醫學翻譯，靈魂在傑作中冒險
Rachel，學理工科，愛跳芭蕾，熱愛文藝的非典型翻譯
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感想
本期感想：
Forest，愛樹的人，精神小花園持續耕耘中
這兩天都在想，如何寫這篇感想呢？比如是不是要寫成對關稅問題所造成的種種影響的一個比較易懂的說明呢？這可能是一種寫法，為此我也查閱了一些文獻，想讓自己更懂一點，可是終究覺得如此寫作，可能就不像是感想了。
感想應是讀罷此文之所感所想。所以最好不能直接是原文字身的放大或縮小，也就是說，應該有其他的說道說道的角度。
這麼一想就很清楚了。這篇文章大概是隻說了兩句話。
第一句正如本文篇首所言，美元本是避險工具。如今之動盪，多少有些傷人多少，自損也不少的意思；對全世界來說，若缺失一個穩定的錨可能會帶來不理想的動盪。
第二句就是雖然今日美國長期中積累的問題不少，但是目前的動盪卻是在短期中系人為極不穩健的施政風格所致。
這是否一個很大的變化？
可能這句話有點突兀，不妨大致展開一下。
就是今天早上晾衣服的時候，我忽然想到，一些年前，演員施瓦辛格競選上了加州州長。引發人們爭議，一位優秀的演員也可以做好一州之長嗎？而且加州有多麼重要，一個州的產值，差不多是全世界的1/16，施瓦辛格，真的可以嗎？！這是差不多二十年前的事情。
提到這一點，其實也特別讓人容易想到最近幾年引人注目的另一位演員總統…術業有專攻可能還是有道理的。
但是曾經的美利堅總統羅納德·里根也是一個演員。我記得小時候看過一本《里根傳》，封面上有這樣三句話：小鎮上的愣頭青；好萊塢的二流演員；美利堅的一流政治家。里根不僅在好萊塢，在華盛頓也是很善於表演的。其中一個著名的例子是他曾經標榜自己是一個二戰英雄，但是，他似乎從來沒有在二戰期間踏上過歐洲的土地啊！而事實上，究竟是不是一流政治家也很難說啊，在其麾下，美國的預算和貿易雙赤字達到歷史巔峰，這也是和目前的對等關稅直接相關的問題。
再回到施瓦辛格，關於他是否適合任職州長的爭議塵埃落定之後，基本共識是美國是一個制度化的國家，所以其實誰做州長影響並不是很大，各個權力機構之間的制衡頗為重要。雖然施瓦辛格是演員，但是他作為州長的權責是有框子的。所以確實，雖然作為州長的施瓦辛格除環保之外，政績乏善可陳，但是也沒有什麼特別大的動靜，這事慢慢就過去了。人們應該是逐漸淡忘了這位“孔武有力”的明星州長。而他再度引發人們的關注，則是因為他個人的私生活。
但是，如今是什麼情況？
川寶寶執政期間，其“心血來潮的個人意志”正如一個小寶寶一樣，似乎要馴服一切與之相關的人。不論你是盟友還是競爭對手，也不論你是法院、精英大學，還是本不應受到總統那麼大影響的制衡類的機構美聯儲。鮑威爾好像都要準備自費提起法律訴訟了，這到底是什麼情況呢？
個人意志如此之大的影響力，與一個傳統上人們認為的制度化國家的國際形象似乎不再相符？今日美國，對內對外，有點玉石俱焚的感覺。
我喜歡的某個學英語APP，在一篇與本文有關的英語新聞解讀中引用了康熙曾給雍正的四字箴言——“戒急用忍”，意思是如下之光景，“咱們也該學習就學習，該積累就積累，該快樂就快樂，耐心等待。等待雨過天晴日，正是邁步奮進時。”
這可能確實是一個比較務實的態度。
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願景
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