世界經濟的韌性正一點點消磨殆盡 | 經濟學人社論（感想超級贊）

寫在前面

思維導圖：

Summer，女，QE在職，夢想能仗走天涯翻譯/音樂/健康

精讀|翻譯|片語

Leaders | Teflon capitalism, tested

經濟學人社論|特氟龍式資本主義，遭遇考驗

英文部分選自經濟學人2025719期社論板塊

Leaders | Teflon capitalism, tested

經濟學人社論|特氟龍式資本主義，遭遇考驗

Bit by bit, the world economy’s resilience is being worn away

世界經濟的韌性正一點點消磨殆盡

Growth has held up astonishingly, given geopolitics. But it can’t last for ever

地緣政治局勢下的經濟增長保持堅挺，讓人驚訝。但不可能永遠持續

As Donald Trump prosecutes his trade war and muses about sacking Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, analysts are poring over the data—and they are seizing on the smallest dips in stockmarkets and rises in inflation as proof of harm. Take a step back, though, and what is striking is how calm it all is. Over the past decade the global order has been upended by populists, authoritarians and war. Yet, as we explain this week, the economy is powering on, unfazed. Aside from a brief contraction as covid-19 lockdowns went into effect, global GDP has grown at a respectable annual clip of about 3% since 2011. Across the rich world, unemployment is near a record low. Both America’s S&P 500 and the global MSCI index of stocks are near record highs.

就在特朗普繼續揮舞著關稅大棒，且琢磨著要罷免美聯儲主席鮑威爾時，分析師們也在緊盯著市場資料，力圖從股市中的小幅下跌或通脹的小幅上揚中證明政策干預對經濟造成了負面影響。然而退一步看，一切卻異常平靜，不禁讓人感到訝異。過去十年，民粹主義、獨裁主義以及戰爭把全球秩序攪得天翻地覆。但正如本刊於本週所述，在這種局面下，經濟卻波瀾不驚，持續增長。除去疫情封控所導致的經濟短暫收縮，全球GDP自2011年以來穩步上升，年均增速達3%，這一數字十分可觀。發達國家的失業率接近歷史最低水平。美國標普500指數和全球明晟指數（MSCI）都接近歷史高點。

This resilience, a Teflon-likesuperpower, is cause for celebration. It means that the twin scourges of recession and unemployment have been kept at bay. The trouble is that threats are now mounting. Because governments do not appreciate the economy’s resilience, they are undermining the fundamental sources of its strength.

世界經濟的韌性好似特氟龍塗層，很好地抵禦住了外部侵蝕，令人欣慰。換言之，全球避免了經濟衰退和失業率上漲這兩大危機。但現在，新的危機仍不斷湧現。各國政府非但沒能充分認識到經濟的韌性，反而正在侵蝕韌性的根源。

註釋：

特氟龍：不粘鍋塗層的主要材料，具有耐酸鹼、氧化劑的穩定化學性質。耐磨性好和抗老化能力強，適合用於高要求的工程塑膠。表面光滑，不易粘附物質，具有良好的潤滑性。

To see the danger, consider first what has propelled the long expansion. Around the world, economic policy now cushions demand more effectively. After the long agony of the global financial crisis, rich-country governments decided that decisive fiscal stimulus was the best way to avert economic pain, and low interest rates made their interventions affordable.

要想看清危險，首先要明確推動經濟長期增長的引擎。放眼全球，經濟政策已能更有效地緩解需求疲軟。在經歷了全球金融危機的深遠創傷之後，發達國家的政府認定，果斷採取財政刺激才是避免經濟陣痛的最優選擇，而低利率環境則為這些干預措施提供了成本可控的實施空間。

Meanwhile, policy in the emerging world improved. The number of inflation-targeting central banks rose to 34 in 2022, from five in 2000. More governments let their exchange rates float and issued debt in local currency, sheltering them from the vagaries of American interest rates. That helped stave off debt crises even as rates rose and commodity-price spikes made life harder for importers.

與此同時，新興市場的政策有所改善。實施通脹目標制的央行數量從2000年的5家增至2022年的34家。越來越多的政府允許匯率自由浮動併發行本幣債務，從而規避了美國利率波動的衝擊。即便在利率攀升、大宗商品價格暴漲加劇進口國壓力的背景下，這些舉措仍有效預防了債務危機爆發。

More stable demand has been met by increasingly flexible supply. During the pandemic, early shortages of masks and chips convinced politicians that markets could not be trusted. In fact, supply chains responded quickly: hand sanitiser was churned out by the gallon; shipments of chips spiked in 2021. More recently, a glut of oil—thanks in part to America’s shale drillers—meant that even as Israel and then America bombed Iran, the price of crude barely budged.

需求端日趨穩定的同時，供給端也愈發靈活。疫情期間，口罩與晶片的初期短缺曾讓政界質疑市場調節能力。但事實上供應鏈反應迅速：手部消毒液產量迅速攀升；2021年晶片出貨量亦激增。受到美國頁岩油廠產量增長等因素影響，近期原油市場供過於求，即便以色列與美國接連空襲伊朗，國際油價依然保持平穩。

You should be worried, therefore, that the fundamentals of Teflon capitalism are now looking shaky. The costs of activist policies are mounting. Politicians in the rich world spent more than 10% of GDP shoring up demand during the pandemic; those in Europe allocated, on average, another 3% during the energy crisis. Interest rates on ten-year government debt now average 3.7%, up from 1% during the pandemic.

但當前“特氟龍式資本主義”所謂的韌性正失去其根基，引人擔憂。積極干預政策的成本持續累積。發達國家政府在疫情期間投入超GDP10%的財政資金刺激需求；歐洲各國在能源危機中平均又追加3%的支出。十年期國債收益率已從疫情期間的1%升至平均3.7%。

Yet because voters increasingly expect the state to step in, and fiscal consolidation is hard, debts are ratcheting up. Even as the economy hummed along last year, America ran a deficit of 7% of GDP. Britain’s attempt to cut benefits for the disabled ended in tears; French pension reforms seem just as doomed. With every increase in the fiscal burden today, governments’ ability to step in next time trouble hits is sorely constrained.

由於選民對政府幹預的期待與日俱增，加之財政整頓舉步維艱，債務規模正逐步上升。即便去年經濟形勢向好，美國財政赤字仍達GDP的7%；英國削減殘障福利的嘗試以民怨沸騰告終；法國養老金改革同樣前景黯淡。當前財政壓力的每一次累積，都在嚴重透支政府未來的危機干預能力。

Moreover, the instinct to protect now extends to supply chains. Prices play a crucial role in a market economy, sending signals about what is scarce and what is plentiful. But governments are seeking to override them in the name of sparing voters’ wallets and jobs. According to the IMF, the rich world had 1,000 industrial-policy measures in place in 2022, up from 100 in 2017. While Mr Trump uses tariffs, the European Commission is relying on subsidies and strictures; it is reportedly mulling a plan for its school-meal scheme to buy food locally.

再者，這種保護本能如今已擴充套件到供應鏈。在市場經濟中，價格扮演關鍵角色，釋放資源稀缺與充足的訊號。但是各國政府卻以保護選民錢包和就業機會為由干預價格訊號。據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）資料，發達國家實施的產業政策干預措施由2017年的僅100項劇增至2022年的1000項。特朗普採用關稅手段，歐盟委員會則依賴補貼和更加嚴格的限制。有報道稱，歐盟正考慮出臺一項計劃，要求學校供餐專案採購本地食物。

All this will only make supply chains more brittle. The pandemic revealed that diversified supply was more resilient than local production, which could be taken out by a lockdown or natural disaster. And governments are hardly the best backers of new supply. The biggest triumph of American reshoring, the rise of the shale industry, came about not because of policy, but because entrepreneurs spied an opportunity.

所有這些只會使得供應鏈更加脆弱。疫情期間的情形已經表明，多元化的供應鏈比本地化生產更有韌性，畢竟後者更容易受封鎖或自然災害影響而陷入停滯。政府絕非培育新型供應鏈的最佳推手。頁岩油產業的興起是美國製造業迴流戰略取得的最大成功，但這絕非因為政策支援，而是企業家嗅到了商機。

History shows that economies do not stay stable for ever. The longer an expansion, the more politicians, investors and companies take risks, hastening its demise. On July 16th Mr Trump said that he was “highly unlikely” to sack Mr Powell. If he were to change his mind, undermining the central bank’s independence, the placidity of the past decade would be put to the test. The economy has surprised so far; it could surprise for a while still. But the Teflon is wearing thin.

歷史表明，經濟不會永遠穩定。經濟擴張越久，政治家、投資者和公司就越傾向於冒險，反而會加速繁榮的終結。7月16日，特朗普稱自己“極不可能”解僱鮑威爾。倘若他出爾反爾，悍然動搖美聯儲的獨立性，過去十年經濟平穩態勢將面臨考驗。迄今為止，經濟表現屢超預期；這種態勢或仍將持續。但“特氟龍式”的抗衝擊塗層，終究是越磨越薄了。

翻譯組：

Benjamin，初學翻譯，愛紅酒，愛美食

Humi，在躺平、側臥和睡夢中尋找詩和遠方

Cassie，ECNU口譯小菜雞，體制內摸爬滾打教書匠

審校組：

Collin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻譯

Hannah，女，做個廢柴，保持愉快

George, the world is my oyster, 仗劍天涯頂峰相見

感想

本期感想：

Forest，愛樹的人，精神小花園持續耕耘中

看了本文，因為要寫感想，我的第一想法是，正如薩繆爾森（）所言，我們每個人都要學一點經濟學，尤其是微觀經濟學。

我在《納瓦爾寶典》中注意到這也是納瓦爾的建議。納瓦爾說“要學習微觀經濟學、博弈論、心理學、說服術、倫理學、數學和計算機”。您看，微觀經濟學被納瓦爾放在了第一位。

本文如果從微觀經濟學角度切入的話，可以讀得很薄。經濟學人善於把枝繁葉茂的真實世界貼到簡明的經濟學邏輯小架子上去，但是不那麼明顯，它首先就是不怎麼用經濟學的術語，但是大量使用商業世界術語，文章高階且神秘，不那麼容易懂，但是貼近充滿了新聞的世界，大家都覺得和自己有關係。

薩繆爾森在他的王牌教科書《經濟學》中引用了一句俏皮話:"鸚鵡也可以成為經濟學家,只要它會說'供給'與'需求'." 這生動地引起了大家的注意，就是供求機制對於經濟學來說有多麼地重要！但是其實歷史上對於這句話的表述是有不同理解的，比如它可能是批評經濟學家只會說供求，而不能理解和解釋得更好，所以他們也只會說供求本身的表象，而這一點，一個經過訓練的鸚鵡就可以做得到。那麼，這也可能是在說，經濟學家像鸚鵡一樣人云亦云，而不是說鸚鵡需要受訓變成經濟學家，鸚鵡它本來就是這個樣子的了。透過學習才能變成自己這麼高深的哲學，鸚鵡確實現在應該還是不知道的，這是文明世界的人類才能和自己玩的遊戲。

那麼，這樣來看，我們剛剛讀罷的文章說不定也確實只停留在了鸚鵡說話層面，媒體經濟學家只寫了供求，無論美英，他們都在想辦法增加本土供給（透過供應鏈的去多元化，提升本土供給），推高需求（透過財政政策來補貼）。這些做法看似尊重了市場理論，你看，嚴格針對供求模型，推高這兩者。

但是供求模型本身也許是市場理論的產物，這兩種推高的手段，文中似乎明示在當前場景中都是非市場的。

這就有點知行不合一地言不由衷了。難道他們以前不是一直在說要發展中國家開啟市場，擁抱市場，深度市場化嗎？

既然如此，為什麼不誠實地一起參與自由市場與政府和組織治理，既自發又理性融合的實事求是的創新理論中來呢？畢竟這才是真實世界的真實敘事。