“讓美國製造業再次偉大”困難重重|經濟學人商業

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Business | Factory fantasies

經濟學人商業|製造業綺夢

英文部分選自經濟學人20250503期商業板塊

Business | Factory fantasies

經濟學人商業|製造業綺夢

The trouble with MAGA’s manufacturing dream

“讓美國製造業再次偉大”困難重重

Donald Trump underestimates the difficulty of producing in America—and how his own policies will make it harder

川普低估在美生產難度——他的政策只會讓情況更糟

In the late 1940s, as the industrial capacity of Europe and Japan lay in tatters, America accounted for over half of global manufacturing output, with much of the world heavily reliant on its wares. Last year it accounted for little over a tenth, and imported $1.2trn more in merchandise than it exported—to the displeasure of its current president.

20世紀40年代末，歐洲和日本工業產能凋敝之際，美國獨佔鰲頭，其製造業產量佔全球一半以上，世界許多國家嚴重依賴美國產品。然而到了去年，該佔比僅略高於十分之一，貨物貿易逆差高達1.2萬億美元，這令現任總統頗為不滿。

By placing America’s enormous market behind a wall of tariffs, the Trump administration hopes to force companies to move production there, making it once again a manufacturing powerhouse. Various firms, from Eli Lilly, a pharma giant, to Schneider Electric, a maker of electrical equipment, have recently announced plans to do so. On April 28th IBM piled in, saying it would invest in making mainframe and quantum computers in America. Yet others, from PepsiCo, a pedlar of fizzy drinks and snacks, to Diageo, a maker of booze, have warned that tariffs will squeeze their profits. Shifting factories to America will be harder than the administration expects. Its policies will make it tougher still.

為重振製造業，特朗普政府試圖透過揮舞關稅大棒，為美國這個龐大市場築起一道“保護牆”，迫使企業將生產線遷回本土。製藥巨頭禮來（Eli Lilly）、電氣裝置製造商施耐德電氣（Schneider Electric）等各領域的多家企業近期宣佈有意將生產基地遷往美國。4月28日，IBM也加入這一行列，宣佈將在美國投資生產大型主機和量子計算機。然而，也有企業持不同看法，如碳酸飲料和零食巨頭百事公司（PepsiCo）以及酒類製造商帝亞吉歐（Diageo）都警告稱，關稅將擠壓自身的利潤空間。將工廠遷往美國可能比特朗普政府預期的要難得多，其相關政策又將使這一過程愈發艱難。

Start with the labour supply. The average pay for a production worker in America isnearly six times that in Vietnam. Yet those wages are still not attracting enough Americans into manufacturing. In the Census Bureau’s most recent survey of factories, a fifth said that they could not get the workers they needed to operate at full capacity.

首先是勞動力供應問題。美國一名生產工人的平均工資是越南的近六倍之多。儘管如此，這樣的工資水平仍難以吸引足夠多的美國人進入製造業。美國人口普查局最近的一項工廠調查顯示，五分之一的企業表示由於招不到人，產能無法充分釋放。

Foreign bosses hoping to manufacture in America lament the paucity of skilled workers such as welders, electricians and machinery operators. This month C.C. Wei, boss of TSMC, a Taiwanese chipmaker, said its effort to produce semiconductors in Arizona was “being constrained by the labour shortage” in the state.

希望在美國設廠的外國企業高管也對技工短缺深感頭痛，例如焊工、電工和機械操作員。本月，臺灣晶片製造商臺積電（TSMC）的執行長魏哲家（C.C. Wei）表示，公司在亞利桑那州的半導體生產計劃“正受到該州勞動力短缺的制約”。

Anyone expecting automation to solve the problem risks being disappointed. Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, recently insisted that “the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones” would soon come back to America, where the work could be automated. Yet a robotic overhaul of American manufacturing seems a long way off. In 2023 there were just 295 industrial robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers in the country, according to the International Federation of Robotics, an industry group. While that was up from 255 in 2020, it was dwarfed by China’s 470 and South Korea’s 1,012 (see chart 1). Contrary to Mr Lutnick’s claim, Apple is now said to be planning to assemble America-bound iPhones in India.

那些指望靠自動化解決問題的人恐怕會以失望告終。美國商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克（Howard Lutnick）最近堅稱：“成百上千萬擰著小小螺絲裝配iPhone的人們”將會回到美國，因為這些工作可以實現自動化。然而，想要憑藉機器人徹底改造美國製造業，似乎還遙不可及。根據國際機器人聯合會（International Federation of Robotics）的資料，截至2023年，美國每萬名製造業工人僅配備了295臺工業機器人。雖然這一數字較2020年的255臺有所增長，但仍遠遠落後於中國的470臺和韓國的1,012臺（詳見圖表1）。更諷刺的是，與盧特尼克的說法恰好相反，據稱蘋果公司正計劃在印度組裝銷往美國的iPhone手機。

The difficulty of building factories is a second barrier to manufacturing in America. Annualised spending on factory construction has doubled, adjusting for inflation, over the past four years, spurred on by subsidies offered by the previous administration to makers of chips and various green technologies. Many projects, however, have been mired in delays or shelved altogether. Solvay, a European chemicals firm, has paused construction of a plant in Arizona intended to make electronics-grade hydrogen peroxide for semiconductors. Pallidus, an American manufacturer of chip components, has axed plans to build a factory in South Carolina.

建廠難是美國製造業面臨的又一障礙。在過去四年裡，美國每年用於工廠建設的支出（扣除通貨膨脹因素影響後）已經翻了一番，這主要是因為上屆政府為晶片製造商及綠色技術企業提供了大量補貼。然而，許多建設專案依然深陷延誤或停滯當中。歐洲化工企業索爾維（Solvay）就暫停了在亞利桑那州建設新廠的計劃，該廠原計劃生產半導體專用的電子級過氧化氫。美國晶片器件製造商Pallidus也取消了在南卡羅來納州的建廠計劃。

That reflects the troubled state of construction in America. According to a 2023 paper by Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, productivity in the sector, measured as output per worker, has fallen by two-fifths from its peak in the 1960s (see chart 2). The authors blame excessive regulation, NIMBYism and a lack of incentives to deliver projects on time, among other things. Labour shortages have also buffeted the sector lately.

這也映射出美國建築行業的困境。芝加哥大學布斯商學院的奧斯頓·古爾斯比（Austan Goolsbee）和查德·西弗森（Chad Syverson）在2023年發表過一篇論文，文中指出，按人均產出計算的建築業生產率，較20世紀60年代的峰值已經下降了近四成（詳見圖表2）。兩位作者將問題歸咎於過度監管、鄰避主義以及缺乏按時交付專案的激勵措施等因素。近來，勞動力短缺也對該行業造成了強烈衝擊。

America’s existing factories are ageing. Over half of the roughly 50,000 manufacturing facilities across the country are more than three decades old; the average plant was built some 50 years ago.

美國現有的工廠正在老化。全國約5萬家製造工廠中，超過半數已建成30多年；工廠平均的建成時間約在50年前。

The inability to build has also resulted in inadequate infrastructure—a third barrier to manufacturing. Much of the electricity grid was constructed in the 1960s and 70s and is at or near the end of its useful life, a factor behind increasingly frequent power cuts. Factories seeking a new connection to the grid face years of delay. Transport infrastructure is no better; one in three bridges needs to be replaced or repaired, according to a study by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association, an industry group. It is a far cry from the slick transport networks that grease supply chains in East Asia.

無力建設還導致基礎設施不足，這成為製造業面臨的第三大障礙。美國大多電網建造於20世紀6、70年代，已達到或接近使用壽命，這是停電越來越頻繁的原因之一。工廠若想接入電網，需要等待數年之久。交通基礎設施也好不到哪裡去。行業組織美國道路及交通工程承包商協會的研究顯示，全美三分之一的橋樑需要重建或維修。這與東亞地區那些能夠促進供應鏈運轉的高效交通網路相去甚遠。

Instead of fixing these problems, Donald Trump looks likely to make manufacturing in America an even trickier proposition. His efforts to clamp down on immigration and deport those who have made their way into the country illegally risk worsening labour shortages in factories and on construction sites. His tariffs are raising the cost of everything from the steel needed to build plants to the machinery that fills them. They are also making it more expensive to import raw materials and parts; almost a third of the inputs used in American manufacturing are imported.

特朗普非但沒有解決這些問題，反似要使在美國製造變得更為棘手。他大力推行移民管控政策，強制遣返非法入境者，這種做法可能加劇工廠和建築工地的勞動力短缺。其關稅政策全面推高成本，從建廠鋼材到生產線裝備均受波及。這些關稅還提高了進口原材料和零部件的成本。美國製造業中近三分之一的生產投入品依賴進口。

Then there is the uncertainty created by Mr Trump’s tariff flip-flopping. Many bosses say they are still waiting for clarity on what duties will be imposed on which countries before they make any changes to their production footprints.

此外，特朗普關稅政策變來變去，進一步帶來了不確定性。許多企業高管表示，他們想等特朗普政府針對各國的關稅靴子真正落地以後，再對企業的生產佈局做出調整。

Although factory jobs in America have dwindled, the country still plays a central role in global supply chains, including by developing world-leading innovations in areas from semiconductors to pharmaceuticals. Nearly $1trn-worth of research and development takes place in America each year, more than anywhere else. By jeopardising America’s trade ties, Mr Trump puts that at risk. Instead of yearning for a return to the past, the president should let America get on with designing the future.