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Summer，女，QE在職，夢想能仗走天涯 翻譯/音樂 /健康
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為什麼要提前還房貸？
英文部分選自經濟學人20250215期財經板塊
財經版塊|梧桐樹專欄
Why you should repay your mortgage early
為什麼要提前還房貸
For the first time in decades, the arithmetic suggests settling housing loans
幾十年來，破天荒地，計算結果表明應儘早還清住房貸款
註釋：
1.Alas
：
You use alas to say that you think that the facts you are talking about are sad or unfortunate.
唉
(
表示難過或不幸的驚歎聲
)
2.swathe
：
A swathe of land is a long strip of land. (
土地的
)
一長條
;
一長片
To many who owed money during the 1980s, when interest rates soared into the double digits, the answer is an obvious “yes”. At the time, borrowing costs became so elevated that merely meeting them, let alone repaying any capital in addition, was a constant struggle. The risk of that being repeated is simply not worth taking. Better, then, to pay all debt off at the earliest opportunity, while doing so is still possible. Even if rates stay where they are at present, that will save money on future interest bills.
對於很多在
1980
年代揹負過債務的人來說，答案顯然是
“
應該
”
，當時利率飆升至
2
位數，借貸成本高企，利息都難以負擔，更別提額外償還本金了。為避免重蹈覆轍，最好是在有能力的時候，儘早償還全部貸款。即便利率保持在當前水平，這也能節省未來的利息支出。
Those whose experience was shaped by more recent decades might feel rather differently. Interest rates have spent most of that time on a downward trend, culminating in the ultra-loose monetary policy seen during the covid-19 pandemic. Next to that, it is the hikes of the past few years that look like an aberration.
對於那些經歷更多受近幾十年影響的人來說，感受可能大不相同。在這期間，利率大部分時間呈下降趨勢，尤其是在新冠疫情期間達到了超寬鬆的貨幣政策水平。相比之下，過去幾年的加息反而顯得反常。
More important, the opportunity cost of repaying a mortgage has outweighed the potential savings for years. This is especially obvious to those who fixed near 1% before 2022, then watched as the rates on simple bank accounts rose to several multiples of that. Under such circumstances, overpaying a mortgage, rather than depositing the cash and pocketing much more interest than repaying would have saved, would have been nonsensical.
更重要的是，提前還貸的機會成本多年來一直超過了潛在的利息節省。對於那些在2022年之前以接近1%的利率鎖定貸款的人來說，這一點尤為明顯：在那之後，普通銀行賬戶存款利率達到了這一數字幾倍之多。在這種情況下，提前償還抵押貸款完全說不通，因為將錢放銀行賺取的存款利息，可比償還貸款能省下來的貸款利息多得多。
The opportunity cost over the longer term, and considering the alternative of investing in shares, has been greater still. Twenty years ago mortgage rates in Britain were not much higher than they are now, at around 5%. Even with a once-in-a-century financial crisis looming, buying stocks rather than making early mortgage repayments would have paid off handsomely. Since the start of 2005, measured in pounds sterling, the MSCI World share index has generated annualised nominal returns of above 10%. Had your mortgage rate stayed the same for the next two decades (though in reality it would have fallen), paying off £1,000 ($1,250) in 2005 would have saved a respectable £1,800 in interest. Investing it in a global share-tracker fund would have made a profit of £6,500, however.
從長期來看，考慮到投資股票的替代選擇，機會成本甚至更高。二十年前，英國的抵押貸款利率與現在相差無幾，大約在5%左右。即使面臨百年一遇的金融危機，購買股票而非提前償還抵押貸款也會帶來豐厚的回報。自2005年初以來，以英鎊計算，MSCI的年化名義回報率超過了10%。如果你的抵押貸款利率在未來二十年保持不變（儘管實際上它會下降），2005年償還1000英鎊（約1250美元）將節省1800英鎊的利息。然而，如果將這1000英鎊投資於全球股票跟蹤基金，你將獲得6500英鎊的利潤。
Today’s mortgage-holders must ask whether such stellar stockmarket returns are still on offer. Those enjoyed by Britons have been flattered by a steep fall in the value of the pound, which has boosted the gains from foreign shares as measured in local currency. For investors around the world, a hefty proportion of recent decades’ high returns has come from ballooning stock valuations. Twenty years ago, for example, the price of the MSCI World index was 22 times as high as its companies’ long-run average earnings. Now that multiple has risen to 30. Put another way, a big share of the gains came from sentiment rather than earnings. Unless investors continue to assign more and more value to each dollar of corporate profit, such a multiple limits the scope for future outsize returns.
如今身背房貸的人必須思考一個問題：股市是否還能提供如此可觀的回報？英國投資者過去享受的高收益，部分得益於英鎊大幅貶值，使以原幣計價的海外投資回報更加亮眼。放眼全球，近幾十年的高回報很大程度上源自股市估值的膨脹。例如，二十年前，MSCI世界指數的市盈率是企業長期平均盈利的22倍，而如今這一倍數已升至30倍。換句話說，回報的很大一部分來自於市場情緒，而非企業盈利本身。除非投資者願意持續為每一美元的企業利潤支付更高溢價，否則這種估值水平將限制未來獲得超額回報的空間。
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hefty
As a consequence, repaying your mortgage early looks more attractive now than it has in a very long time, even including those periods when interest rates were at today’s levels or higher. That is an odd thought for central bankers, so long after they started tightening monetary policy to quell inflation, and with many of them having spent recent months loosening it instead. Borrowers who were sufficiently shrewd, or lucky, to secure ultra-low rates for decades rather than years will be enjoying their holiday for some time to come. For plenty of others, reality beckons.
因此，提前還清房貸如今比過去很長一段時間內都更具吸引力，甚至比那些利率與當前相當甚至更高的時期更值得考慮。對於央行行長們來說這一趨勢頗顯反常，畢竟他們緊縮貨幣政策以遏制通脹那麼久了，甚至許多央行近幾個月又開始放鬆政策。那些足夠精明或幸運的借款人，提前鎖定了數十年的超低利率，仍能繼續享受這場“假期”。但對許多其他人而言，現實已然吹哨了。
翻譯組：
Martina:希望成為REST的I人
vivifang，女，本人豐富，日新月異，無法簡介
校對組：
Cecilia，今年過得貴婦一點
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感想
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願景
