1
2
Finance & economics | Stop hopping
經濟學人財經｜別再頻繁跳槽了
英文部分選自經濟學人20250726期財經板塊
Finance & economics | Stop hopping
經濟學人財經｜別再頻繁跳槽了
Want higher pay? Stay in your job
想漲薪？最好原地別動
America’s cooling labour market is bad news for those who move about
美國勞動力市場正在降溫，這對愛“跳來跳去”的人可不是好訊息
For years, America’s job market has rewarded the footloose. The surest route to a higher salary, the advice goes, is to string together a series of one- or two-year stints, each paying a bit better than the last. Career gurus on TikTok set videos of their own salary progression to jaunty pop beats, cloaking online bragging as guidance for the uninitiated. On Reddit, posters debate just how little time in a role a job-hopper can get away with before future employers might start to fret about disloyalty. (A year or so is the consensus, though a brave few argue for six months.)
多年來，美國就業市場一直在"獎勵"頻繁跳槽的人。職場經驗表明，要想漲薪，最穩妥的辦法就是不斷跳槽：每隔一兩年換一次工作，每個新工作的薪水都比上一份高一點。TikTok上，職業導師們將自己的漲薪之路配上歡快的流行樂剪輯成影片，把自誇自耀包裝成新人指南。人們在Reddit上發帖熱議：在一個崗位上最少待多久再跳槽，才不會讓新公司擔心“不忠誠”。（普遍認為是一年左右，不過個別膽大的說半年就行。）
Now things are changing. For the first time in 15 years, barring blips in 2012 and 2018, wage growth for “job-stayers”, those who have stuck with their employer, is running faster than for “job-switchers”, those who jumped ship, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (see chart 1). Hunkering down and impressing the boss may now be a better bet than polishing your CV or responding to those LinkedIn messages from head-hunters.
如今形勢逆轉。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的資料顯示（見圖表1），除了2012年和2018年短暫波動外，15年來首次出現“留職者”（即堅守原崗的人）工資增速快於“跳槽者”的情況。現在，堅守崗位、給老闆留下好印象，可能比包裝簡歷、在領英上勾搭獵頭更容易收穫漲薪。
The woes of job-hoppers are a particularly visible sign of a wider trend: the softening of America’s once rock-solid labour market. Another sign is the rising unemployment rate for fresh university graduates, who are struggling to persuade anyone to take a punt on them.There have been weak patches in the jobs market over the past few years. Some firms, like the big consultancies, vastly over-hired during the post-pandemic boom, and have since spent years painfully paring back. Coders have complained about poor prospects for a while; first, high interest rates hurt tech-firm valuations, then new artificial-intelligence models turned out to be particularly adept at programming.
跳槽者的困境只是大趨勢裡最顯眼的跡象：美國曾經堅如磐石的勞動力市場正在鬆動。另一個訊號是，應屆大學生失業率攀升，這些畢業生想盡辦法也難以打動招聘企業冒險錄用他們。過去幾年中，曾有個別行業就業不景氣。比如，一些大型諮詢公司，在疫情後的繁榮期過度招聘，此後數年一直在痛苦地裁員。程式設計師抱怨前景不佳已有一段時日，先是高利率壓低了科技公司的估值，緊接著新型人工智慧模型又對程式設計駕輕就熟。
But a broad jobs slowdown is a fresh development. Even as the stimulus-fuelled excesses of the post-pandemic years cooled, America’s labour market remained impressively robust. For month after month, new payroll data would show that hundreds of thousands of jobs were being added to the economy. Now that motor may be slowing. June’s payroll numbers looked strong on the surface—some 147,000 jobs were added across the economy, beating expectations—but half of those were in government, mostly teaching. Private-sector employment, a better measure of the underlying state of the economy, was disappointingly weak.
但就業市場全面放緩是新近趨勢。疫情後，刺激政策製造的過剩逐漸出清，但美國的勞動力市場一直保持驚人的韌性，資料顯示，新增就業崗位數量連續多月高達幾十萬。但現在，新增就業的步伐似乎慢了下來。6月的就業資料表面亮眼，全美新增崗位總數大約14.7萬個，超過了預期。但是，其中一半都是政府崗位，大多是教師類職位。而能更好衡量經濟基本面的私營部門就業增長，則表現疲軟，令人失望。
In recent years there have been more job openings than people on the unemployment rolls, suggesting high demand for workers. Yet this ratio of vacancies to unemployment, which economists watch as a measure of labour-market health, has recently fallen back to one, meaning there are about as many openings as job-seekers (see chart 2). And the share of small-business owners who are planning to raise hiring or salaries is at its lowest since the pandemic (see chart 3).
近年來，美國就業市場持續呈現"崗多人少"的局面 ，說明勞動力市場供不應求。但現在，經濟學家視為就業市場晴雨表的職位空缺與失業人數的比值已經回落到了1：1，也就是說，目前市場上的工作崗位數量和求職者數量大致相當（見圖表2）。與此同時，計劃擴招或漲薪的小型企業佔比也跌至疫情以來的最低點（見圖表3）。
What does all this mean for America’s would-be job-hoppers? Once labour markets start cracking, they have a habit of deteriorating further. The Federal Reserve may, in due course, come to the rescue by lowering interest rates—but only after it can be persuaded that tariffs will not set off another round of inflation. If ever there was a time to redecorate your office and invest in a comfier chair, now might be it. You could be there for a while.
這一切對想跳槽的美國人意味著什麼呢？勞動力市場一旦出現裂痕，往往會持續惡化。美聯儲或許會及時以降息來應對，但前提是確信關稅不會引發新一輪通貨膨脹。如果想要找個時間重新佈置辦公室，或者花錢換把更舒服的椅子，那現在可能正是時候，畢竟你很可能要在這兒多待些時候了。
翻譯組：
Ryan，詩酒趁年華
Harold，不狂不放不申花
審校組：
Alexis, Less is more
風箏，熱愛生活熱愛翻譯熱愛搞錢熱愛貓咪
3
本週感想：
Cleo，男，學習不停，思考不止，努力成為審慎卻樂觀的深入思考者
本文指出了靠頻繁跳槽“滾薪水雪球”的時代，正悄然落幕。美國勞動力市場降溫，“留職者”的漲薪速度首次超過“跳槽者”，數字後顯示出一場結構性轉折的回聲。如果說過去十年屬於躁動的“跳一跳，也許就能夠到月薪兩萬”，那麼現在，是謹慎者坐收回報的時刻。風停了，別再奔跑了。
之前，跳槽是年輕人的黃金法則，是繞開體制緩慢升遷路徑的秘密通道。TikTok上的漲薪軌跡、Reddit上的職位攻略、招聘平臺上那些總在“急招”的崗位，構成了一個充滿可能的幻覺。美國亞特蘭大聯儲的資料也曾印證這一趨勢：跳槽者普遍比留任者獲得更高的工資增幅。但如今，曲線交叉，紅利消散，留在原地的人開始跑贏“獵頭上癮症”。
背後的原因，並非只是市場短週期波動。社會學者Ulrich Beck在《風險社會》中預言過這一幕：當結構性安全感喪失，個體便只能用“頻繁轉移”來抵抗深層不確定。跳槽，成了對“隨時可能被最佳化”的反向攻擊。但這種生存邏輯，一旦遇到宏觀收縮、AI替代、資本冷靜的疊加週期，便再也支撐不起那種“走為上策”的幻象。
皮尤研究中心在2023年的一項調查中指出，Z世代中近60%的人跳槽並非為了更高薪資，而是因“心理健康困擾”與“組織缺乏價值感”。換句話說，這是一次次“逃離感”驅動的遷徙，而非“晉升動能”帶動的躍遷。而這種基於情緒驅動的流動，在市場趨冷後，反而更容易跌入職業斷層與認知疲勞的陷阱。同時，關於“弱關係”的就業理論也面臨瓦解。跳槽依賴的是獵頭、前同事、前僱主的網路，是資訊不對稱的紅利期。但如今，社交平臺訊號衰減、內推系統信任崩塌，“可跳槽的機會”不再廣泛存在於公共空間，而是收攏於少數資源群體之中。跳槽的門檻從未如此高，卻仍有太多人撞得頭破血流。
再看結構趨勢。高利率拖垮科技公司估值，AI模型蠶食程式設計師職位，教育行業被政策高壓重塑……就業市場的含氧量正在降低。文章中提到的資料顯示，美國私營部門的新增崗位萎縮、小企業計劃增薪和增聘的比例降至疫情以來最低。這些，不是區域性衰退，而是結構性換擋。
所以我們該怎麼辦？文章的結尾似在調侃：“買把舒服的椅子吧，你可能要久坐原地。”但這其實是一種溫和的建議——不是讓你安於現狀，而是鼓勵你在停留中找到節奏、打磨能力、修復關係，甚至重建對工作的定義。
也許真正值得在意的，不是換了多少工作，而是在每一個工作中，是否找到成長與錨點。也許我們不該再把跳槽當作必經之路，而該重新賦予“留下來”以價值和重量。
—END—
