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思維導圖：
Summer，女，QE在職，夢想能仗走天涯翻譯/音樂/健康
翻譯組全體成員如下：
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經濟學人歐洲｜德國風雨欲來
Europe | On the edge in Germany
經濟學人歐洲｜德國風雨欲來
Merz wins a messy election then calls for independence from America
默茨險勝選戰，高呼歐洲自強
First he must build a coalition in Germany
組閣難題當前，執政之路坎坷
THERE HAVE been sweeter victories. As expected, Friedrich Merz’s opposition Christian Democrats (cdu) won Germany’s federal election on February 23rd, in tandem with their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (csu). But the conservative parties’ result of just 28.6%—their second-worst in the history of the republic—muted celebrations at Konrad Adenauer House, the cdu’s Berlin headquarters. With the outgoing government led by Olaf Scholz regularly plumbing new depths of unpopularity, many in Mr Merz’s ranks had hoped for far better. The wound was deepened by the capture of close to a quarter of the seats in the Bundestag by the hard-right Alternative for Germany (afd), a party harbouring extremists that was the night’s big winner. The afd now dominates Germany’s east, and made big gains in the west, too.
曾經德國大選勝利者的得票率可比現在好得多。正如事先預期的那般，由弗里德里希•默茨（Friedrich Merz）帶領的反對黨基督教民主聯盟（cdu）與姊妹黨巴伐利亞基督教社會聯盟（csu）一起贏得了2月23日的德國聯邦選舉。但是該保守黨聯盟的得票率僅為28.6%，創下其在聯邦共和國史上第二差的選舉成績，這也給它們在柏林總部康拉德·阿登納大廈的慶祝活動澆上了一盆冷水。即將卸任的奧拉夫·朔爾茨（Olaf Scholz）政府民望低迷，屢創新低，許多默茨的支持者原本還期待著更亮眼的選舉結果。更糟糕的是，極右翼政黨德國選擇黨（afd）在聯邦議院獲得了近四分之一的席位，這一不乏極端分子的政黨成為當晚的大贏家，無疑是在聯盟黨的傷口上撒鹽。選擇黨如今一邊盤踞在德國東部，一邊已在西部“開疆擴土”。
注：後文中出現“基督教民主聯盟”簡稱為“基民盟”，“基督教社會聯盟”簡稱為“基社盟”，兩黨合稱為“聯盟黨”。
Relief came in the form of the failure of two smaller parties, the Free Democrats and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, to meet the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. That meant more seats for the bigger parties, enabling Mr Merz to form a coalition with Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats (spd) alone rather than seek two partners. Talks should begin next week.
但讓人鬆了一口氣的是，自由民主黨（the Free Democrats）和薩拉·瓦根內克希特聯盟（the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance）兩個較小的政黨未能跨過進入議會所需的5%的選票門檻。這使得那些大黨們能分得更多席位，也讓默茨有望僅與朔爾茨領導的社會民主黨（SPD）組建聯合政府，而無需再拉攏第三方。組閣談判預計下週啟動。
Mr Merz and his confidants will lead their early phase, though regional cdu barons will want a say. The spd’s pointman will be its co-chief, Lars Klingbeil. He has quickly cemented his grip on the party, this week adding leadership of its shrunken group of mps to his portfolio. A wily 47-year-old centrist who has helped negotiate coalition deals before, Mr Klingbeil is also said to be eyeing the vice-chancellorship. (Mr Scholz will remain in office until Mr Merz takes his place, but the outgoing chancellor will play no part in the talks.)
默茨及其親信將主導聯合政府的初期談判，但地方基民盟大亨勢必要求話語權。社民黨的關鍵人物將是其聯合主席拉爾斯·克林拜爾（Lars Klingbeil）。他已迅速鞏固了黨內地位，本週更是將該黨縮水的議員團體領導權收入囊中。作為一名精明的中間派，47歲的克林拜爾曾參與過聯合政府的談判，據傳他也在覬覦副總理一職。（朔爾茨將在默茨正式接任前繼續留任，但不會介入談判。）
That Mr Merz has no alternative partner—his party, like all others, shuns the afd—hands the spd leverage in the talks to come. The cdu/csu is unlikely to win much backing for most of the unfunded tax cuts it has proposed; for its part the spd may have to give ground on Bürgergeld, a welfare payment which Mr Merz thinks coddles the workshy. The parties differ on investment, energy, the minimum wage and some weapons deliveries to Ukraine. There will be squabbles over how to divvy up the big ministries, especially finance, and the parties must also draw up a budget for the rest of 2025. But none of these hurdles looks insurmountable.
在同哪一黨派組建聯合政府方面，默茨別無選擇，基民盟和其他政黨一樣，對選擇黨敬而遠之，這使社民黨在即將到來的談判中手握籌碼。聯盟黨提出了減稅措施，但大多並沒有資金支援，這不太可能贏得廣泛支援；而社民黨可能不得不在“公民津貼”（Bürgergeld）問題上讓步，默茨認為這項福利政策會助長賦閒懶惰之風。兩黨在投資、能源、最低工資以及對烏克蘭的部分武器援助上存在分歧。關於如何分配重要部門（尤其是財政部）的職位，雙方將會產生爭執，同時還需制定2025年剩餘時間的預算。雖然阻礙重重，但都在可解範圍之內。
On migration, a trickier area, Mr Merz may have to break his rash vow before the election not to compromise on proposals that plainly violate German and European law, such as rejecting asylum-seekers at the border. New eu asylum rules due to take effect next year may offer a face-saving way out. More broadly, if Mr Merz gets his wish for a skimpy coalition agreement in place of the door-stoppers of recent years, he may manage to wrap up talks by Easter.
在更為棘手的移民問題上，默茨可能不得不食言，推翻他在選舉前作出的草率承諾——他當時承諾絕不會向明顯違反德國及歐盟法律的提案妥協，包括諸如在德國邊境強硬遣返尋求庇護者的提議。將在2026年生效的歐洲移民和庇護法改革新方案，或許能為他提供一個體面的臺階。從更宏觀的層面來看，若能如願達成簡化的聯合政府協議，解決近年來的幾大障礙，默茨或有望在復活節前達成會談，組建政府。
註釋：
醞釀多年歐洲議會批准移民和庇護法改革方案
https://www.rmzxw.com.cn/c/2024-04-11/3523977.shtml
Meanwhile, a more pressing demand has emerged. A third smaller party, the socialist Die Linke (The Left), which months ago looked close to extinction, enjoyed a late surge to win 8.8% of the vote. This was powered largely by young voters in western cities angered by Mr Merz’s decision to vote with the afd on immigration, alienated by the centrism of the spd and Greens, and open to Die Linke’s bread-and-butter campaign on housing and wages.
與此同時，一個更緊迫的挑戰已然浮現。數月前已瀕臨消亡的社會主義政黨左翼黨（Die Linke，德國第三個較小的黨派）在選舉後期異軍突起，斬獲8.8%的選票。這一逆轉主要得益於西部城市年輕選民的支援——他們對默茨在移民議題上與選擇黨立場一致十分憤怒，也厭惡社民黨和綠黨的中間路線，卻被左翼黨聚焦住房與工資的民生競選綱領所吸引。
Die Linke’s success means that it, along with the afd, will hold just over a third of the seats in the next Bundestag, which convenes in late March. That threatens any plans that the cdu/csu, spd and the Greens might have to push through constitutional changes, which require two-thirds majorities. Crucially, that includes amending Germany’s increasingly obsolete debt brake, which limits the federal government’s structural deficit to 0.35% of gdp.
左翼黨的成功意味著其與選擇黨將共同佔據新一屆聯邦議院（定於3月下旬召開會議）逾三分之一的席位，這將嚴重阻礙聯盟黨、社民黨及綠黨推動任何憲法修正案的計劃（修憲需超三分之二席位的支援）。尤為關鍵的是，這包括修訂德國日益過時的“債務剎車”機制——該機制將聯邦政府結構性赤字限制在GDP的0.35%。
The easiest way to secure backing for debt above these levels from Mr Merz’s fiscally hawkish ranks will be to devote it to defence spending, especially since America’s underwriting of European security now looks distinctly shaky. Germany needs at least €30bn ($31bn) a year from 2028 simply to meet the nato floor of 2% of gdp. But while Die Linke detests the debt brake, it holds military spending in equal disdain. “They will need to negotiate with us if they want to reform it, and I will not make that cheap, I can tell you,” warns Ines Schwerdtner, its co-leader.
要在默茨財政鷹派陣營中爭取突破債務上限的支援，最便捷的途徑是將超出額度的資金用於國防開支——尤其是在美國對歐洲安全承諾搖搖欲墜的背景下。德國自2028年起每年至少需投入300億歐元（約合310億美元）方能達到北約2% GDP的軍費最低標準。然而，儘管左翼黨厭惡債務剎車，其對軍費支出的反感亦無以復加。該黨聯合主席伊內斯·施韋特納（Ines Schwerdtner）直言：“如果他們想要改革債務剎車，就得和我們談判，而且我絕不會讓他們輕易得逞。”
That has driven Mr Merz to consider an unorthodox alternative: recalling the outgoing Bundestag, in which the three mainstream parties hold 71% of the seats, to push through a debt-brake-circumventing special fund for defence, reportedly worth €200bn-250bn. The parliament remains in place until the next one is convened, so the manoeuvre seems legally sound if politically dubious. “To be called back for an emergency session would be bizarre,” says Jens Zimmermann, one of 87 spd mps who lost their seats. “The question is how much this would damage democracy.”
這迫使默茨已經開始考慮一種非常規的替代方案：重新召集即將卸任的聯邦議院（三大主流政黨在議院中佔有71%的席位），以推動設立一項規避“債務剎車”機制的國防特別基金，據報道該基金規模在2000億至2500億歐元之間。在下一屆議會召開會議前，當前的議會仍然有效，所以這一舉措儘管在政治層面存在爭議，但從法律層面看似乎可行。“重新召集議院召開緊急會議令人不可思議，” 失去議席的87名社民黨議員之一延斯・齊默爾曼（Jens Zimmermann）表示，“問題在於這會對民主造成多大程度的損害。”
Thus has Germany’s lame-duck period, usually defined by cautious shadow-boxing, become an occasion for high-stakes intrigue. Having first proposed using the old parliament themselves, the Greens are raising their price, calling for a debt-brake reform to enable investment in infrastructure, schools and climate policy as well as defence. The spd is mulling its position.
因此，一般以謹慎試探為主的德國“跛腳鴨”過渡期，本次卻演變為一場高風險博弈。綠黨是最早提出由舊議會來進行決策的一方，而現在他們坐地起價，要求進行“債務剎車”機制改革，以便能在基礎設施、教育、氣候政策、國防等領域進行投資。社民黨則在仔細斟酌其立場。
Perhaps the spd and Greens could back the special fund now in exchange for a cdu/csu commitment to loosen the debt brake in a fashion that could pass muster with Die Linke later. But such machinations risk getting bogged down in politics just when Germany has to show its European partners it has a credible path to rearmament and a response to Donald Trump, says Moritz Schularick, head of the Kiel Institute, a research outfit. Either way, momentous decisions may come within weeks: lightning speed for a democracy that usually moves at a snail’s pace. As Mr Merz said on election night: “The world will not wait for us.” He has already raised eyebrows by calling for Europe to “achieve independence” from America.
或許，此時社民黨和綠黨可以支援該特別基金，以換取聯盟黨承諾以一種能讓左翼黨日後認可的方式放鬆“債務剎車”機制。研究機構基爾研究所負責人莫里茨・舒拉里克（Moritz Schularick）表示，在德國必須向其歐洲夥伴表明其有能力重整軍備和應對唐納德・特朗普（Donald Trump）時，此類政治操弄有可能使德國陷入政治泥潭。無論如何，重大決策可能在幾周內就會出臺——對於一個通常行動遲緩的民主國家來說，這堪稱神速。正如默茨在選舉之夜所說：“世界不會等我們。”他呼籲歐洲擺脫對美國的依賴以“實現獨立自主”，這一舉動已經驚詫眾人。
A deeper question is whether Germany’s next parties of government are convincing agents of change. The cdu/csu and the spd have become clubs for the elderly; had the election been confined to voters under 60 they would not have commanded a majority. Neither party has had much to say about reforming Germany’s public pensions, now gobbling up 23% of the federal budget; rebalancing the flatlining economy away from exports towards domestic consumption; or getting a grip on Germany’s woeful record on digitalisation. Germans have known considerable upheaval in the past few years, much of it redounding to the benefit of the afd. Is Mr Merz ready to deliver more?
一個更為深刻的問題在於，德國的下一屆執政黨派能否成為令人信服的變革推動者。聯盟黨以及社民黨已然變成了老年人的俱樂部；倘若選舉只限於60歲以下的選民參與，這兩個政黨便無法獲得多數選票。目前，德國的公共養老金開支已佔到聯邦預算的23%，但對於改革公共養老金體系，這兩個政黨都沒什麼實質性的主張；在讓停滯不前的經濟從依賴出口向內需驅動轉型方面，它們也拿不出什麼辦法；至於改善德國在數字化領域的糟糕表現，同樣毫無建樹。在過去幾年裡，德意志人民在風雨裡飄搖，選擇黨在驚濤駭浪中收穫頗豐。默茨準備好帶來更多變革了嗎？
翻譯組：
Leon，男，駐外民工，經濟學人讀者
Jessie，女，翻譯界林黛玉，想被人叫大佬
Cassie，ECNU口譯小菜雞，體制內摸爬滾打教書匠
審校組：
Cecilia，今年生活得貴婦一點
Vince，語言是前進路上的一道光
Dossver，誰人定我去或留，定我心中的宇宙
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