本週封面故事|變革與危機：五角大樓的未來戰爭與德國新領導者的挑戰

寫在前面

1.重點單詞、片語以及固定搭配

單詞

Pentagon – 五角大樓

reform – 改革

wreck – 毀壞

front-runner – 領跑者

vulnerabilities – 脆弱性

deterrence – 威懾力

bureaucratic – 官僚主義的

malaise – 痼疾，不安

procurement – 採購

ignominy – 恥辱

incumbents – 在職者，現任者

insurgents – 叛亂者，反叛者

pork-barrelling – 政治分肥（指透過撥款謀取選區利益）

jealously guard – 嫉妒地守護（引申為嚴密控制）

dysfunction – 功能紊亂，失調

xenophobic – 仇外的，排外的

fragmentation – 分裂，破碎化

paralysis – 癱瘓，停滯

mandate – 授權，委託書

incremental change – 漸進式變革

片語

take on the Pentagon – 挑戰五角大樓

weigh up the risks and benefits – 權衡風險與利益

be out-innovated by competitors – 被競爭對手超越創新能力

descend into chaos or corruption – 陷入混亂或腐敗

banging on the Pentagon’s doors – 強烈要求進入五角大樓（引申為尋求合作）

dominated by incumbents – 被現任者壟斷/主導

put contracts out to tender – 招標合同

guard control over defence spending – 嚴格控制國防開支

固定搭配

armed forces face vulnerabilities – 武裝力量面臨脆弱性問題

a deeper malaise in the system – 系統中的更深層次痼疾

introduce competition and risk-taking into a system – 將競爭和冒險精神引入體系中

escape the ignominy of dependence on others – 擺脫依賴他人的恥辱感

2.文章概述：

本期封面故事主要探討了美國五角大樓面臨的技術、工業和官僚體系的弱點，以及特朗普和馬斯克可能對其改革或破壞的影響。文章指出，美國軍隊在無人機技術等領域被競爭對手超越，預算流程過於緩慢，導致軍事優勢削弱。同時，新興軍事科技公司如Palantir正在挑戰傳統國防承包商，但改革也面臨腐敗和混亂的風險。此外，文章還提到德國總理候選人弗里德里希·梅爾茨的政治前景，他主張自由市場和移民改革，但其漸進式變革可能不足以應對德國經濟衰退和政治分裂的挑戰。整體來看，文章聚焦於改革的重要性及潛在風險，強調了領導力與創新在複雜局勢中的關鍵作用。

精讀|翻譯|片語

Cover Story

封面故事

How we chose this week’s image

我們如何選擇本週的圖片

Edward Carr

愛德華·卡爾

Deputy editor

副主編

We had two covers this week. In America and Asia, as Donald Trump and Elon Musk prepare to take on the Pentagon, we weigh up whether DOGE will reform it or wreck it. In our British and European editions, we feature an interview with Friedrich Merz, who is the clear front-runner to become Germany’s next chancellor.

本週我們有兩個封面。在美國和亞洲，唐納德·特朗普與埃隆·馬斯克準備與五角大樓展開較量，我們探討DOGE是會改革它，還是會摧毀它。在英國和歐洲版，我們刊登了對弗里德里希·默茨的採訪，他是德國下一任總理的最有力競爭者。

America’s armed forces face a real problem.

美國的武裝部隊正面臨一個真正的問題。

Not since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik and built huge tank formations at the height of the cold war have America’s military vulnerabilities been so glaring. In the killing fields of Ukraine the United States is being out-innovated by drone designers; in the seas and skies off China’s coast it is losing its ability to deter a blockade or invasion of Taiwan.

自冷戰高峰期蘇聯發射“人造衛星”並建立龐大坦克編隊以來，美國的軍事弱點從未如此明顯。在烏克蘭的戰場上，美國正被無人機設計者超越；在中國沿海的海空作戰中，美國正在失去威懾臺灣封鎖或入侵的能力。

Our task on the cover was to get across the importance of reform as well as the risks that it descends into chaos or corruption.

我們的封面任務是要展現改革的重要性，同時也揭示改革可能帶來的混亂與腐敗風險。

We start with the latest in our attempts to depict Mr Trump by showing ever smaller parts of his body. A hand will do—though the Pentagon has been reduced to a tiny steel nut.

我們從最新的嘗試開始，試圖透過展示特朗普先生身體上的逐漸縮小部分來描繪他。一隻手就足夠——不過五角大樓已經縮小成一個微小的鋼螺母。

However, although Mr Trump is the immediate reason to write about the Pentagon, we wanted to get across the fact that our coverage is broader than that. Our main focus is the technological, industrial and bureaucratic weakness of America’s defence establishment.

然而，儘管特朗普是我們撰寫五角大樓專題的直接原因，我們更希望突出的是，美國國防體系在技術、工業和官僚主義方面的弱點。

That led us to a second, more promising, idea of the Pentagon and the drones. This design doesn’t quite work—we weren’t sure whether this swarm was emerging from the DoD or (more appropriately) attacking it—but, as you will see, it figured in our final cover.

這讓我們想到了第二個更有潛力的創意：五角大樓與無人機。這個設計雖然不太成功——我們不確定這個無人機群是來自國防部，還是更合適的是正在攻擊國防部——但最終它出現在了我們的封面設計中。

Here we have the Pentagon implanted in a circuit board, in a misty, atmospheric sketch—with a hint of the film “Blade Runner”—and a crystal-clear worked-up final cover.

在這幅封面中，我們將五角大樓植入到一塊電路板中，配上縹緲、大氣的草圖，帶有《銀翼殺手》電影的影像感，最終形成清晰精緻的封面。

America struggles to turn technology into a military advantage. The drones over Ukraine are upgraded every few weeks, a pace that is beyond the Pentagon’s budgeting process, which takes years. American and European jammers in electronic warfare cost two or three times as much as Ukrainian ones, but are obsolete.

美國一直在努力將技術轉化為軍事優勢。烏克蘭上空的無人機每隔幾周就會進行升級，這種速度超出了五角大樓的預算編制流程，後者需要數年時間。美國和歐洲的電子戰干擾器價格是烏克蘭的兩到三倍，但卻已經過時。

The good news is that a new generation of mil-tech firms, including Anduril, Palantir and Shield AI, is banging on the Pentagon’s doors. Indeed, Palantir is now worth more than any of the five big prime contractors, such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

好訊息是，一批新興的軍事科技公司正在敲開五角大樓的大門，包括Anduril、Palantir和Shield AI。事實上，Palantir的市值已經超過了波音和洛克希德·馬丁等五大主承包商。

Again, however, the Pentagon in this treatment is awfully small. And, although the focus on its problems with technology is justified, they are just symptoms of a deeper malaise.

但儘管如此，五角大樓在這個構圖中的表現仍然過於渺小。雖然將技術問題作為重點是有其合理性的，但這只是更深層次弊病的表象。

This took us in a different direction. We have the drones, we have DOGE battling the bureaucracy and we have a truly massive Pentagon somewhere in deep space—less “Blade Runner” than “Star Wars”.

於是我們將創意帶向了另一個方向。我們加入了無人機和DOGE與官僚機構的對抗，五角大樓則位於深空某處，呈現出一種更像《星球大戰》而非《銀翼殺手》的宏大景象。

The space connection makes sense, because NASA shows how to introduce competition, risk-taking and innovation into a procurement system dominated by incumbents. In the 2010s, to escape the ignominy of paying for rides to the International Space Station on Russian spacecraft, NASA put fixed-price contracts out to tender. Boeing offered Starliner; Mr Musk’s SpaceX offered Crew Dragon at a much lower cost. Crew Dragon has been a huge success. Starliner has yet to fly a successful mission.

太空的元素是有道理的，因為NASA展示瞭如何在一個由現任者主導的採購系統中引入競爭、冒險和創新。2010年代，為了擺脫依賴俄羅斯飛船前往國際空間站的尷尬，NASA將固定價格合同進行招標。波音公司提供了“星際客機”（Starliner）；馬斯克的SpaceX則以更低的成本提供了“乘員龍”號（Crew Dragon）。乘員龍號取得了巨大成功，而“星際客機”至今尚未完成一次成功任務。

We liked this idea and asked for it to be worked up into a cover.

我們很喜歡這個想法，要求將其設計成封面。

This was almost there. We needed a bit more going on, so we added some drones and explosions and brightened up the background nebulae.

這個創意已經非常接近完美了。我們需要更多的元素，於是加入了一些無人機、爆炸和明亮的星雲背景。

We called this the battle for the Pentagon. Mr Trump and his insurgents will be taking on pork-barrelling politicians, as well as the bureaucracy. They guard their control over defence spending so jealously that, without congressional permission, the Pentagon cannot as a rule shift more than $15m from one line to another—too little to buy even four Patriot missiles.

我們稱之為五角大樓之戰。特朗普先生和他的支持者將與政治腐敗的政客以及五角大樓的官僚體系進行鬥爭。他們對國防開支的控制非常謹慎，以至於沒有國會批准，五角大樓通常無法在不同專案之間轉移超過1500萬美元的資金——這幾乎不夠購買四枚“愛國者”導彈。

And yet it could all go very wrong. If Mr Trump prefers sacking generals for supposedly being “woke” or disloyal, he will bring dysfunction upon the Pentagon. If Mr Musk and his mil-tech brethren use DOGE’s campaign to wreck, or to boost their own power and wealth, they will corrupt it. Their work could not be more important, or more risky.

然而，一切可能會大錯特錯。如果特朗普選擇解僱將軍們，理由是他們“覺醒”或“不忠”，他將為五角大樓帶來功能紊亂。如果馬斯克和他的軍事科技同伴利用DOGE運動來破壞五角大樓，或是為了提升他們自己的權力和財富，他們將腐化這一系統。他們的工作既重要又危險。

We also published our interview with Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democrat from North Rhine-Westphalia who, after elections later this month, looks very likely to become Germany’s next chancellor.For those outside Germany, this man from Brilon may be unfamiliar. So we decided to use a photo from the interview.

我們還刊登了與弗里德里希·默茨的採訪，這位來自北威州的基督教民主黨成員，在本月稍晚的選舉後，很可能成為德國下一任總理。對於德國之外的人來說，這位來自布里隆的政治人物可能相對陌生，因此我們決定使用採訪中的一張照片。

Mr. Merz has a difficult task ahead of him. Germany has been in recession for the past two years. Unhappiness with migration has led to a surge in support for the xenophobic right, fragmenting politics and causing paralysis in government. For years, Germany has relied on importing cheap gas from Russia, selling expensive exports to China, and outsourcing its security to America. That business model lies in ruins.

默茨先生面臨著艱鉅的任務。過去兩年，德國一直處於經濟衰退之中。對移民問題的不滿導致仇外右翼支援率飆升，政治四分五裂，政府陷入癱瘓。多年來，德國一直依賴從俄羅斯進口廉價天然氣，向中國出售昂貴的出口產品，並將安全外包給美國。這種商業模式已蕩然無存。

Here are two standard shots. In our interview, Mr. Merz came across as confident, intelligent, and remarkably calm considering the stakes. His instincts lie in the right direction. He understands the concerns of business and promises a crusade against red tape. He believes in free markets, free trade, and the Atlantic alliance. He knows that fixing immigration is crucial to weakening the appeal of Germany’s hard-right party, the Alternative for Germany.

這是兩張標準照片。在我們的採訪中，默茨先生表現得自信、睿智，考慮到風險，他顯得異常冷靜。他的直覺是正確的。他了解商界的擔憂，並承諾打擊繁文縟節。他相信自由市場、自由貿易和大西洋聯盟。他知道，解決移民問題對於削弱德國極右翼政黨德國選擇黨的吸引力至關重要。

These would make fine covers, but they are a bit dull. We wanted to get close up.

這些照片可以做封面，但有點暗淡無光。我們想要近距離拍攝。

The frown tells a more accurate story than Mr. Merz’s optimistic gaze into the middle distance. Our worry about the next chancellor is that Mr. Merz favors what sounds like incremental change over the radical shake-up that Germany and Europe need. He behaves as if the hard part will be getting elected. Yet governing will be much harder. To command his coalition and to carry through difficult reforms in a time of turmoil, he will need a mandate for sweeping change.

與默茨先生樂觀地眺望遠方相比，眉頭的皺紋更能說明問題。我們對下任總理的擔憂在於，默茨先生傾向於聽起來像漸進式的變革，而不是德國和歐洲所需要的徹底改革。他表現得好像當選才是最難的。然而，執政將難上加難。為了在動盪時期指揮他的聯盟並推行艱難的改革，他需要獲得全面變革的授權。

To capture that tension, we zoomed right in on Mr. Merz, who is looking straight into the camera. Some Germans may see this as a harsh portrait. In fact, it dramatizes the man and the hard road that lies ahead of him.

為了捕捉這種緊張氣氛，我們放大了默茨先生，他正直視著鏡頭。一些德國人可能會認為這是一幅殘酷的肖像畫。事實上，這是對他和他未來艱辛道路的戲劇化描繪。

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