特斯拉銷量下滑另有隱情|經濟學人社論

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Elon Musk’s antics are not the only problem for Tesla

特斯拉麵臨的問題不僅僅有馬斯克的荒唐行為

The carmaker’s sales are sinking for other reasons too

特斯拉銷量下滑另有隱情

Friends help each other out. Tesla’s boss, Elon Musk, may well have been grateful when Donald Trump said he would buy one of its electric vehicles (EVs) on March 11th. Yet that was the least the president could do for his bureaucracy-basher-in-chief. The day before, Mr Trump had helped bring on a fall of over 15% in Tesla’s share price, amid a wider sell-off sparked by his trade policies and his warning that America’s economy faced a “period of transition”. The subsequent Trumpian endorsement will not be enough to apply the brakes to Tesla’s declining sales and slumping share price.

朋友之間互相幫襯實屬常事。3月11日，當美國總統特朗普表示他將購買特斯拉電車以示支援時，馬斯克應當會心存感激。先前，特朗普任命馬斯克為政府效率部（DOGE）的執掌人，收穫"反官僚主義急先鋒"的稱號。然而，特朗普能做的也僅限於此了。就在前一天，特朗普的貿易政策和所謂美國經濟“轉型陣痛期”的言論引發市場恐慌，導致特斯拉股價單日暴跌超15%。即使總統親自下場帶貨，也沒能挽回特斯拉銷量頹勢和股價跳水。

Mr Musk’s backing for Mr Trump’s second presidential run once looked like a clever business move. His reward was to run the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), boosting what Barclays, a bank, calls the “Elon premium”. Investors clearly thought that his political sway would do Tesla good. Its market value hit a record $1.5trn in December (see chart).

曾經，馬斯克支援特朗普再次競選總統看似是十分精明的商業決策。他不僅獲得政府效率部部長一職，更提升了巴克萊銀行提出的“馬斯克溢價”，投資者深信其政壇影響力能持續利好特斯拉。去年12月，這家電動車企市值一度飆升至1.5萬億美元的巔峰。

Since then his closeness to Mr Trump and support for far-right causes have prompted a backlash. Protests against Mr Musk’s role at the heart of the administration and doge’s mass firings of civil servants have gathered steam in America. Picketing of Tesla showrooms has turned ugly, with windows smashed and vehicles vandalised; a Tesla charging station was attacked by arsonists. Outside America, Mr Musk’s actions have also provoked protests against the carmaker. So closely are the man and brand intertwined that embarrassed owners are resorting to anti-Musk bumper-stickers to distance themselves from him.

然而隨著馬斯克與特朗普過從甚密，加之其公開支援極右翼勢力，形勢急轉直下。全美各地抗議浪潮蔓延開來：政府效率部大規模裁撤公務員引起公憤，特斯拉展廳遭到打砸，窗戶被砸、車輛被毀；一座特斯拉充電站還發生了縱火案。在海外，馬斯克的行為同樣引發了針對特斯拉的抗議活動。馬斯克本人與品牌之間的關係如此緊密，以至於尷尬的車主們不得不在汽車保險槓上貼上反馬斯克的車貼來與他劃清界限。

But Mr Musk’s politics only partially explains Tesla’s troubles. Sales were falling before he took a chainsaw to America’s public sector. Last year Tesla dropped a long-standing aim to be making 20m cars annually by 2030 and reported its first decline in annual sales for many years—a fall of 1%, to 1.79m cars.

但馬斯克的政治立場只是特斯拉困境的冰山一角。早在他對美國公共部門大開殺戒之前，特斯拉的銷量就已開始下跌。去年，特斯拉放棄了其長期以來的造車目標——2030年前年產2千萬輛，並報告了多年來年度銷量的首次下降，即總量降至179萬輛，同比下降1%。

Sales have continued to fall in recent months compared with a year before, at a time when the EV market overall is still growing. Barclays estimates that first-quarter sales in Europe could be down by around 30%. In Germany, where Mr Musk caused an uproar by supporting a far-right party in recent elections, sales fell by 76% in February, year on year.儘管近來全球整體電車市場呈增長態勢，但特斯拉近幾月的銷量與去年同期相比還在持續下降。巴克萊銀行預估，其歐洲一季度銷量或下跌30%左右。在德國，馬斯克在其近期選舉中支援極右政黨引發爭議，二月銷量同比下降76%。

Yet Barclays reckons that first-quarter sales in America, where antipathy to Mr Musk seems highest, will be flat. Sales in China also fell by nearly 14% in January and February, but a political backlash is an unlikely explanation; Mr Musk is generally regarded as pro-China. In Britain, where his political meddling should be a factor, Tesla sales actually increased by almost 21% in February.

儘管美國民眾對馬斯克的厭惡情緒似乎最強，巴克萊銀行預計特斯拉一季度在美銷量將持平。特斯拉1、2月在中國的銷量也下降了近14%，但不太可能是出於政治原因。雖然馬斯克的政治立場本會影響特斯拉在英國的銷量，但實際上二月幾乎反增了21%。

This suggests that a reaction from consumers who dislike Mr Musk’s antics are only one reason for falling sales. An updated Model Y, Tesla’s best-selling vehicle, has just gone on sale. In preparation Tesla ran down inventory of the old model, crimping supply. Customers doubtless held off purchases until the new car was available.

這意味著，消費者對馬斯克荒唐行為的厭惡只是特斯拉銷量下滑的原因之一。特斯拉最暢銷的車型Model Y的升級版剛剛上市。為此，特斯拉清理老型號的庫存，收緊供應。消費者毫無疑問會等新款供應再購買。

The bigger problem, though, is that Tesla has become what Philippe Houchois of Jefferies, an investment bank, calls a “reluctant carmaker”. It relies for the bulk of its sales on two models, the 3 and the Y, whereas global giants such as Toyota have many more to satisfy all parts of the market. In October Mr Musk decided against launching a cheaper “Model 2”, instead switching focus to robotaxis and humanoid robots. Meanwhile the competition from established carmakers and Chinese newcomers is heating up.

但核心問題在於，特斯拉已成為傑富瑞（Jefferies）投行的分析師菲利普·胡舒瓦（Philippe Houchois）口中 “不情不願的車企”。特斯拉的銷售主要依靠Model 3和Model Y兩款車型，而豐田等國際巨頭車型更全，可以滿足各個細分市場的需求。去年10月，馬斯克決定不推出廉價車型“Model 2”，轉攻無人駕駛出租車和人形機器人。與此同時，老牌車企與中國造車新勢力兩面夾擊，市場競爭日趨白熱化。

Tesla’s valuation has long lost any connection with fundamentals, and is more a bet on Mr Musk’s ability to revolutionise any business he turns his hand to. He now claims that robotaxis and robots will make Tesla the “most valuable company in the world by far”.

特斯拉的估值早已脫離基本面，倒更像是押注馬斯克點石成金的本領。如今馬斯克揚言，無人駕駛出租車和機器人業務將助力特斯拉問鼎“全球市值之巔”，遠遠領先於其他公司。

That hints at another explanation for Tesla’s plunging share price: Mr Musk spreading himself ever thinner. In an interview with Fox News on March 10th he noted the “great difficulty” he faced running Tesla and his other firms while working for the government. As Mr Trump inspected his potential new purchase outside the White House, he chastised protesters for “harming a great American company”. Yet much of the blame for that lies with his buddy, Mr Musk.