經濟衰退似乎不會波及現場音樂，這可多虧了黃牛|經濟學人財經

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導圖作者：

May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太陽，還要繼續努力的亞古獸

翻譯組全體成員如下：

翻譯組成員介紹 | 社論&商業組（1）

翻譯組成員介紹 | 社論&商業組（2）

翻譯組成員介紹| 財經組

翻譯組成員介紹 | 文化&訃告組

精讀|翻譯|片語

Finance & economics | Mo’ problems, mo’ money

財經| 哞事，哞錢

英文部分選自經濟學人20250329期財經板塊

Finance & economics | Mo’ problems, mo’ money

財經| 哞事，哞錢

Live music seems recession-proof. Thank ticket scalpers

經濟衰退似乎不會波及現場音樂，這可多虧了黃牛

When demand softens, the secondary market absorbs the pain

需求疲軟時，二級市場總會挺身而出

Olivia Rodrigo performs on stage in Los Angeles in 2024

奧利維亞·羅德里戈（Olivia Rodrigo）在洛杉磯的舞臺上表演，2024年

The mood music on Wall Street is downbeat, as America’s government throttles trade and consumers seem poised to trim spending. Yet one corner of the entertainment industry is partying on regardless. Live Nation, a concert promoter, has said it expects the live-music industry to break records in 2025. Its Ticketmaster app had 70% more traffic this February than last, reckons Sensor Tower, a data firm.

特朗普政府對國際貿易出手，消費者似乎也準備縮減開支，華爾街的氛圍不覺十分壓抑。然而，娛樂產業的一隅，狂歡仍在繼續。Live Nation預計現場音樂行業將在2025年打破歷史紀錄。資料公司Sensor Tower的統計顯示，今年2月，Live Nation旗下的票務平臺Ticketmaster的訪問量較去年同期激增了70%。

This party may yet fizzle out. But the music business has a record of performing well during downturns. Although concerts were clobbered by covid-19 lockdowns in 2020-21, during America’s previous three recessions live entertainment held up even as spending on other forms of fun dipped, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank (see chart).

眼下這場狂歡或許終將偃旗息鼓。但在經濟低迷時期，音樂行業歷來表現不俗。儘管2020至2021年間的疫情封鎖重創演唱會行業，但高盛（Goldman Sachs）的資料顯示，美國先前三次經濟衰退中，即便其他娛樂消費下滑，現場演出行業仍保持堅挺（見圖表）。

Timing is one reason: concert-goers may book tickets months in advance, so the impact of belt-tightening is delayed. Another is that the average big-name gig in America is still cheaper than a night out on Broadway or at the National Football League, meaning that concerts are not the first treats to be forgone in a crunch (they may even serve as cheaper substitutes). The globalisation of music fandom also protects touring artists from downturns. If demand falters in Johannesburg, add a date in Jakarta.

演唱會熱潮遲遲不退，原因之一是時機問題：觀眾通常會提前數月預訂演出門票，因此經濟緊縮的影響會延後顯現。另一個原因是，在美國，看一場大牌歌星的演唱會，平均花費仍然低於看一晚百老匯演出或看一場國家橄欖球聯盟(NFL)的比賽。這意味著，在人們經濟拮据時，演唱會非但不會被率先放棄，甚至可能會變成平替。樂迷群體的全球化也讓巡演歌手免受市場低迷的影響。如果約翰內斯堡的演出上座率不高，你大可以在雅加達加演一場。

The most improbable saviours of live music in recessions are a group more often cast as villains: ticket touts. Concerts are deliberately underpriced, to ensure that true fans—young and hip but penniless—make it into the audience alongside rich oldies and corporate-hospitality bores. Scalpers take advantage by buying tickets early, then reselling them at the true market-clearing price. In booms they prosper: in 2019, just before the pandemic, Live Nation said that the average uplift in ticket prices on the secondary market in America was 70%, providing touts with a profit of $1.3bn (more than Live Nation’s own operating profit that year).

經濟衰退時，現場音樂最意想不到的拯救者竟然是臭名昭著的票販子“黃牛黨”。演唱會有意壓低票價，以確保年輕時尚但囊中羞澀的鐵桿粉絲，能與坐擁財富的老年觀眾和企業款待的無趣客戶同場觀演。黃牛們早早買下門票，並根據市場供需關係加價轉售從中獲利。經濟繁榮時期，他們賺得盆滿缽滿。2019年疫情前夕，Live Nation報告稱，美國二級市場的門票價格平均漲幅達到70%，黃牛們獲利13億美元（比當年Live National自身的營業利潤還要高）。

But when demand softens, touts feel it first. Their billion-dollar profit pool in effect shields the primary market from declines in consumer spending, argue Stephen Laszczyk and Antares Tobelem of Goldman Sachs. “In the event of a recession, we would expect that the secondary market would absorb most of the pressure on marginal demand, insulating the underlying profitability of the live-music industry,” they predict.

但是當需求疲軟時，黃牛們也是最先受到影響的。高盛集團的斯蒂芬・拉斯奇克（Stephen Laszczyk）和安塔瑞斯・託貝萊姆（Antares Tobelem）認為黃牛們數十億美元的利潤實際上保護了一級市場，抵禦了消費萎縮的衝擊。他們預測，“經濟衰退時，我們預計二級市場會承擔邊際需求減少的大部分壓力，使現場音樂行業的實際盈利能力免受影響。”

If the direst forecasts for America’s economy come true, fans may not be willing to pay as much to see bands like Oasis, whose comeback tour begins in July. Yet with tickets already sold out in the primary market, the Gallagher brothers have no need to worry. It is those trying to make a buck in the secondary market who will have to roll with it.