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May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太陽，還要繼續努力的亞古獸
翻譯組全體成員如下：
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財經| 股神計劃退居二線
英文部分選自經濟學人20250510期財經板塊
Finance& economics | The oracle plans to step down
財經| 股神計劃退居二線
Warren Buffett’s $348bn question for his successor
沃倫·巴菲特留給繼任者的3480億美元難題
The next Berkshire Hathaway CEO has a mountain of cash to invest
伯克希爾·哈撒韋的下一任執行長手握鉅額現金待投資
Berkshire Hathaway holds annual shareholders' meeting
伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司舉行年度股東大會
SURPRISING PEOPLE at the age of 94 is no mean feat. Warren Buffett has retained that capacity. As Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting on May 3rd drew to a close, Mr Buffett announced that he would be stepping down as CEO of the sprawling conglomerate. The move will come at the end of the year, after six decades in charge. Mr Buffett had been preparing for his own departure. But he said he did not give most of Berkshire’s directors advance notice of his announcement. Nor did he tell Greg Abel, his presumptive successor.
在94歲高齡還能驚呆世人，絕非易事。而沃倫•巴菲特仍具備這種能力。5月3日，伯克希爾·哈撒韋年度股東大會接近尾聲時，巴菲特宣佈他將卸任這家龐大企業集團的執行長——執掌伯克希爾六十年後，他將於年底離職。巴菲特此前一直在為自己卸任做準備。但他表示，他並未提前向伯克希爾的大多數董事透露自己即將宣佈的這一訊息。既定接班人阿貝爾（Greg Abel）也沒有從他那裡得到任何訊息。
Berkshire Hathaway was a textile manufacturer when Mr Buffett bought the company in 1965. In the years that followed he turned it into an immense insurance firm and a conglomerate with interests in everything from energy to candy. He deployed a value-investing strategy—seeking out companies which appeared to be cheap relative to their intrinsic value. Between 1965 and the end of last year, Berkshire’s market value had risen by more than 5,500,000%, with a compounded annual return of almost 20%. The total return of the S&P 500 index over that period was 39,000%.
巴菲特於1965年收購伯克希爾·哈撒韋，彼時這還是一家紡織企業。在隨後數年間，他將該公司轉型成龐大的保險集團，並打造為橫跨能源、糖果等多元領域的綜合性商業帝國。他採取價值投資策略——即發掘市場價格低於內在價值的標的公司。從1965年至去年底，伯克希爾市值累計漲幅逾5500000%，複合年回報率接近20%。同期，標普500指數總回報率為39000%。
Today Berkshire has a market capitalisation of $1.16trn. Still, Mr Buffett has left his successor with a difficult task. Mr Abel has been with the company for a quarter of a century. He has run its non-insurance operations—such as its energy, railway and retail businesses—since 2018. The challenge goes beyond filling Mr Buffett’s shoes as an investing “oracle”. Berkshire’s investment strategy is becoming harder to pull off.
如今，伯克希爾的市值已達1.16萬億美元。然而，巴菲特還是給繼任者留下了一個艱鉅的任務。阿貝爾已在公司工作了四分之一個世紀。自2018年以來，他一直負責伯克希爾的非保險業務，如能源、鐵路和零售業務。阿貝爾面臨的挑戰不僅僅是接替巴菲特成為投資“先知”，更在於伯克希爾的投資策略正越來越難以實行。
註釋：pull off：If you pull off something very difficult, you succeed in achieving it. 做成 (某件難事)
Over the past year Mr Buffett has aggressively sold stocks, including a large chunk of his stake in Apple, a tech giant. Now, for the first time in two decades, Berkshire owns more cash than it does listed equities. At the end of March it had $348bn in cash and short-term American government debt on its balance-sheet, more than twice the amount it reported at the close of 2023. Its holdings of Treasury bills account for about 5% of the outstanding market. If Berkshire were a foreign country, it would be the tenth-largest holder of American government debt, bigger than India, Switzerland or Taiwan.
在過去一年裡，巴菲特大舉拋售股票，包括大幅減持科技巨頭蘋果公司的股份。如今，二十年來伯克希爾擁有的現金規模首次超過上市股票。截至3月末，它資產負債表上的現金和短期美國國債達到3480億美元，是2023年底財報規模的兩倍多。它持有的美國國庫券約佔市場流通量的5%。如果將伯克希爾視為國家或地區，那麼美債持倉規模可躋身全球前十，規模超過印度、瑞士或臺灣地區。
Mr Buffett’s decision to withdraw from the stockmarket has so far benefited Berkshire. The firm’s stock is up by 20% this year, while the S&P 500 is down by 3%. Now Mr Buffett and Mr Abel need to figure out what to do with their enormous pile of cash. There are worse problems to have, but Berkshire’s position reflects a tough environment for the sort of investing that made Mr Buffett famous. Lately he has griped that there is not much out there to buy at a reasonable price. Even after the recent market tumult, valuations of listed companies are high relative to their historical levels.
巴菲特降低股市倉位的決定到目前為止對伯克希爾大有裨益。該公司今年的股價上漲了20%，而標準普爾500指數下跌了3%。現在，巴菲特和阿貝爾需要考慮如何把這些鉅額現金儲備投出去。幸福的煩惱啊，但伯克希爾的處境反映了巴菲特賴以成名的投資方式正面臨嚴峻的投資環境。最近，他抱怨說，市場上難以找到定價合理的優質資產。即使在最近的市場動盪之後，上市公司的估值相對於歷史水平仍然很高。
註釋：tumult：Atumult is a state of great confusion or excitement. 混亂; 激動
One option for Mr Abel would be to expand more aggressively into overseas investments. In recent years Mr Buffett made successful bets abroad. For example, he poured billions of dollars into several of Japan’s trading conglomerates, such as Mitsubishi and Sumitomo. Mr Abel might note that among companies worth over $5bn and with price-to-earnings ratios below ten—suggesting they are cheaply valued—80% by value are domiciled outside America.
或許阿貝爾可以更加積極地拓展海外投資。近年來，巴菲特在海外市場屢獲成功。例如，他向日本的三菱、住友等綜合商社注入了數十億美元資金。阿貝爾可能會注意到，在市值超過50億美元且市盈率低於10倍（表明估值較低）的企業中，按價值計算，80%的公司註冊地在美國以外。
Another option would be to stray from value investing in the hope of finding more firms to pour money into. That seems unlikely, at least for now. Such a move would transform Berkshire’s culture and risk the ire of Mr Buffett’s army of admirers. After 25 years at the firm, Mr Abel is unlikely to pull a handbrake turn straight away.
阿貝爾也可以選擇不堅守價值投資策略，以尋求更多可投資的企業。但至少在目前看來，這種可能性較低。此舉不僅將顛覆伯克希爾的企業文化，並可能引發巴菲特眾多追隨者的不滿。在伯克希爾任職25年的阿貝爾不太可能立刻急轉彎。
Absent a change on either front, Berkshire will have to wait for a downturn in the market to find big new opportunities to use its cash pile. Mr Buffett had a history of spotting such prospects. He snapped up a large stake in Wells Fargo, an American bank, during a slump in 1990. He invested in companies such as Johnson & Johnson and Kraft Foods (and Wells Fargo again) in the aftermath of the 2007-09 global financial crisis. The list goes on. Berkshire’s shareholders must hope Mr Abel has the same oracular vision.
如果這兩條路都走不通，伯克希爾將不得不靜待市場低迷，以尋找能利用其鉅額現金儲備的新機遇。巴菲特曾多次抓住此類機遇：他在1990年市場低迷時大舉買入美國富國銀行股份，在2007-2009年全球金融危機後又投資了強生、卡夫食品（以及再次加倉富國銀行）等企業。類似的例子不勝列舉。伯克希爾的股東們只能希望，阿貝爾也能擁有同樣精準的“先知”眼光。
翻譯組：
Ryan，詩酒趁年華vivifang，女，本人豐富，日新月異，無法簡介
Ithil，今更、思い出すなよ
校對組：
Alexis, Less is moreCecilia，今年過得貴婦一點
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感想
本週感想：
Cleo，男，學習不停，思考不止，努力成為審慎卻樂觀的深入思考者
在資本市場，幾乎沒有誰的存在比沃倫·巴菲特更具象徵意義。他的退休，不僅是資產管理公司的一次領導更替，更像是價值投資黃金時代的緩緩落幕。這篇文章用冷靜剋制的筆調，揭示了更深層次的命題：繼任者所接手的，不只是Berkshire Hathaway的資產負債表，而是一個逐漸老去的投資體系。在利率高企、資產估值透支、全球化紅利減退的背景下，以“估值迴歸”為核心的投資策略正遭遇前所未有的現實摩擦。
回望過去十年，從疫情到俄烏衝突，從巴以局勢到中美博弈，去全球化趨勢愈發明顯。與此同時，美元霸權的不確定性也在重塑全球資產的估值邏輯。巴菲特能夠取得如此罕見的成功，關鍵在於他總能洞悉時代變局背後的人類行為反應，並以近乎絕對理性的視角，審視社會變遷帶來的價值觀演進。這種對人性的深刻理解，使他得以在混亂中識別被市場低估的真正價值，從而精準押注，實現所謂“價值投資”的實質內涵。
值得一提的是，價值投資並不是對靜態指標的機械評估，而是一種動態理解——它根植於對時代精神、社會情緒與人類行為模式的深度判斷。當我們談論“價值”的時候，實則是在探討每一個時代所珍視的東西。而這些觀念的變化，極其微妙而抽象，唯有極少數人能敏銳捕捉。
如今，巴菲特選擇告別，留下的不是一項新投資，而是數千億美元的現金。這筆資金將如何投出，不僅是Berkshire Hathaway未來的命運所在，也將成為全球資本市場集體關注的焦點。一方面，伯克希爾的投資動向具備強烈的“基石效應”，極有可能引導大批投資者湧向同一標的；另一方面，也是在全球新格局中，對“巴菲特神話”可持續性的真實考驗。
從這個意義上說，巴菲特的離場並非終點，而是一次更深層的價值拷問：價值投資，在新時代還能走多遠？
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願景
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