本次學習Charlie Munger DuBridge lecture at University of Michigan 2010 （2010年查理芒格密歇根大學演講），希望有所收穫。
1、查理·芒格的背景介紹
And our special guest today is Charles Munger, who for more than three decades has been the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, the diversified investment company shared by Warren Buffett. Born in Omaha, He left the university to serve in the Army Air Corps in World War 2 and after military service earned a degree from the Harvard Law School, magna cum laude, and they went to California to practice law. In 1962, he cosplayed the firm that is now known as Munger Tolls at ollison. During this time, he became a serious investor, first running a successful investment partnership in his own in two and joining forces with Warren Buffett. The success . Of Berkshire Hathaway is well known, but behind the headlines are the values by which Charlie has conducted his own professional life.
我們今天的特別嘉賓是查理·芒格，他在三十多年的時間裡一直是沃倫·巴菲特共同擁有的多元化投資公司伯克希爾·哈撒韋的副董事長。查理出生在奧馬哈，以數學專業身份進入大學，他在第二次世界大戰期間離開大學去參軍，並在服役後從哈佛大學法學院獲得了優異的學位，然後前往加利福尼亞州執業。1962年，他與奧蒂斯·芒格共同創立了現在的芒格·托爾斯律師事務所。在此期間，他成為了一名認真的投資者，先是經營自己的投資合夥公司，然後與沃倫·巴菲特合作。伯克希爾哈撒韋的成功眾所周知，但在這條新聞背後，是查理在指導他自己的職業生涯時所遵循的價值觀。
2、一生中真正重大的機會將會很少，決定伯克希爾成功的是40年中那20筆最好的交易
your really major opportunities in life are going to be few. And when you get a lollop aoos for God's sakes, don't hang by like a timid little rabbit, don't hang back, they aren't that many of the really big good ones.If you take the whole history of herbertshire Hathaway, if you take out the 20 best transactions, our record is a joke. Well, 20 V transactions over 40 some years, that's one every two years. And we work at it all the time. Life is not just bathing you on unlimited opportunities, even if you work at being able to find them and seize them.I saw another hand right here. Undergraduate. Production across.
你認為你一生中真正重大的機會將會很少。當你得到一個好機會時，看在上帝的份上，不要像一隻膽小的兔子一樣猶豫不決，不要退縮，真正的大好機會並不多。如果你看看伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的整個歷史，如果你把20筆最好的交易去掉，我們的記錄就是一個笑話。好吧，40多年裡有20筆交易，這就是每兩年一次。我們一直在努力。生活並不只是給你無盡的機會，即使你努力去尋找並抓住它們。
3、終身學習、一生都在追求知識和智慧
Patience, hard work, and rational thinking. In short, the principles of his personal hero, benjamin Franklin. And like Franklin, charlie has sought to use his own self andm made resources for the good of others and has had many long-standing charitable involvements in education, health care, and the arts. Another interest that Charlie shares with Benjamin Franklin is that of lifelong learning. He reads several weeks books a week. He remains passionate about learning, teaching, and always problem solving. I suspect that if you're looking for the secret of Charlie's success, you might find it right there, an ongoing quest for knowledge and wisdom that remains central to his life.And I might add that one of Charlie's favorite quotes applies to himself as well. Ability will get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there.
耐心、努力工作以及理性思考。簡而言之，是他個人偶像本傑明·富蘭克林的信條。就像富蘭克林一樣，查理致力於利用自己的資源和努力為他人謀福祉，並在教育、醫療和藝術領域長期參與慈善事業。
查理和本傑明·富蘭克林還有另一個共同點，那就是終身學習的興趣。他每週讀幾本書。他仍然對學習、教學和解決問題充滿熱情。我懷疑，如果你正在尋找查理成功的原因，你會發現它就在那裡，那就是他一生都在追求知識和智慧。我還要補充一點，查理最喜歡的一句話也適用於他自己。能力會讓你達到頂峰，但只有品格才能讓你留在那裡。
4、不預測宏觀經濟潮起潮落，我們的系統是儘可能有效地游泳
Let me start with a qualification. Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.Our system is to swimmers competently as we can, and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large, we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play for game for a long time. I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude. It's kind of a snare and a delusion out gas macroeconomic cycles. Very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?
讓我從資格宣告開始。沃倫和我並沒有透過做出成功的宏觀經濟預測並押注我們的結論來謀生。我們的系統是儘可能有效地游泳，有時潮水會幫我們，有時潮水會對抗我們。但總的來說，我們並不太在意預測潮汐，因為我們計劃長期玩這個遊戲。我建議你們所有人都有同樣的態度。試圖預測宏觀經濟週期是一種陷阱和錯覺。很少有人能成功做到這一點，其中一些人還是偶然成功的。當遊戲如此艱難時，為什麼不採用另一種系統，儘可能有效地游泳，並認為在漫長的一生中，你會經歷潮起和潮落呢？
5、實現生活中所想要的東西的最佳方式就是值得你所想要的
And some of you are going out into a bad market. My attitude toward that is very simple. I think you should all just say, so what?
There are good tides and there are bad tides. I have a long way to go, and we know from the example of other people that if you constantly stand well by your own generation and cope with competency and grace with whatever life deals you, and just keep doing it, your share of the honors and emoluments of the civilization in due time are very likely to come if you deserve the emoluments. And of course, that's the other advice, the best way to get what you want in life is to deserve what you want.How could it be otherwise? It's not crazy enough so that the world is looking grow out of undeserving people to reward.
你們中的一些人將進入一個糟糕的市場。我對這種情況的態度非常簡單。我認為你們都應該說，那又怎樣？潮起潮落。我還有很長的路要走，我們從他人的例子中知道，如果你始終對自己的時代保持良好的立場，以能力和優雅應對生活給予你的一切，並且一直這樣做，那麼你遲早會得到你應得的榮譽和文明酬勞。當然，這是另一種建議，實現生活中所想要的東西的最佳方式就是值得你所想要的。否則還能怎樣呢？這並不瘋狂到讓世界開始獎勵那些不值得的人的地步。
6、在漫長的一生中，自憐自艾和嫉妒這兩件事永遠不應該做
There are two things I've found in my long life, when you'd never do one is never feel sorry for yourself if your child is dying of cancer, don't feel sorry for yourself, never, ever feel sorry for yourself. And the other thing you never want to have is envy. That's the only one of the deadly sin.You're never going to have any fun at at all.
在我漫長的一生中，我發現有兩件事是你永遠不應該做的。第一件是如果你的孩子死於癌症，你永遠不會為自己感到難過。不要為自己感到難過，永遠不要，永遠不要為自己感到難過。另一件事是你永遠不想要的，那就是嫉妒。這是唯一一種致命的罪惡。你永遠不會有過任何樂趣。
7、如何應對困難：保持低調、盡你所能
why not take these opportunities, hardships, and so forth to make a man of yourself or a person of yourself, to use the modern lingo?And so I know how you should cope with whatever the difficulties are. The president, just keep your head down and do your best. And do some of the people who had the best careers and my age cohort, of the age cohort just before mine were the ones who had the worst club ring in the 30s because they were there when the great boom came.
為什麼不利用這些機會、困難等等來成就你自己呢？用現代語言來說，就是成為一個人。
所以我知道你們應該如何應對任何困難。保持低調，盡你所能。還有些人，他們的事業很成功，跟我同齡的人中的一些人，以及在我之前一代的人中的一些人，他們在三十多歲時是最糟糕的俱樂部成員，因為當大繁榮來臨時，他們就在那裡。
8、警惕資產負債表中的鏡花水月
Look at the write offs, are you really earning money when you put something on your balance sheet that really isn't there? When you reach for it will fade away like mist. What the hell kind of a system is that?
看看這些減值，當你在資產負債表上記錄一些實際上不存在的東西時，你真的在賺錢嗎？當你伸手去拿時，它就會像霧一樣消散。這到底是什麼樣的系統？
9、做正確的事情
I think it would be a net plus if we were plainly doing the right thing, if we borrowed I think when we just borrow the money and shovel at people, it's dangerous. But I think it is less dangerous when there's something really meritorious you're doing with the money.I think the infrastructure is sure to be very useful. It is sure to be needed. It's going in the right direction. Of course,
我認為如果我們明確地做正確的事情，如果我們借錢並建立基礎設施，這將是一個淨收益。
我認為，當我們只是借錢然後揮霍時，這是危險的。但如果我們用這些錢來做真正有意義的事情，我認為這會稍好一些。我認為基礎設施肯定是非常有用的。它一定會被需要。它正在朝著正確的方向發展。
10、推遲一些事情併為重要的事情節省我們的精力
If we deferred some of that stuff and saved our energy for the big one, we might got the big one done.
如果我們推遲一些事情，併為重要的事情節省我們的精力，我們可能會完成這個重要的任務。
11、短期激勵與長期主義
How do you propose to get past that and to shift our system from these short term incentives and planning to a more long term perspective, not just in our focus, but in how we act as well?Well, of course, of course, we have a terrible problem with these very short term incentives.I don't think it is required because the rest of the world cares terribly about the next quarter's earnings. Berkshire doesn't care. So this is everybody that cares.
你打算如何解決這個問題，並使我們的系統從這些短期激勵和規劃轉向更長期的角度，不僅在我們的關注點上，也在我們的行動方式上？嗯，當然，當然，我們對這些非常短期的激勵措施有一個嚴重的問題。我不認為這是必要的，因為世界其他國家非常關心下一季度的收益。伯克希爾不關心。所以這就是每個人都在關心的事情。
12、保持獨立判斷的重要性
So when the culture starts to go wrong, we're all susceptible to be dragged along. And therefore, it's a very good habit in life to develop what Kipling to keep your head when all about you are losing theirs. It's not I've been doing it all my life. Everybody's wrong with Charlie. It's caused me some trouble, but it's also created a huge advantage and it's not that bad averaged out.You know, you had a more convenient place right here where there's not a lot of crazy temptation. But if you go to a place where everybody is start craving mad and pushing and crazy, and it's very hard to not get sucked along as my father was almost sucked along and signing a some kind of perjured application for a hunting license in South Dakota, we can all drift into that stuff, but we don't watch it.
所以當文化開始出錯時，我們都有可能被拖累。因此，在生活中養成一個很好的習慣是發展Kipling 所說的保持頭腦清醒，當週圍的人都失去理智時，你仍能保持冷靜。我一生都在這樣做。查理的看法都是錯誤的。這給我帶來了一些麻煩，但也帶來了巨大的優勢，總的來說，這並不壞。你知道，你在這裡有一個更方便的地方，那裡沒有太多的瘋狂誘惑。但如果你去一個每個人都開始瘋狂渴望、推擠和瘋狂的地方，你會發現很難不被捲入其中，就像我的父親幾乎被捲入其中，在South Dakota 簽署了一份某種偽證的狩獵許可證申請一樣。
13、年輕人是否應該投資股市
Well, bunter I'd rather own common stocks I'd pick than the government bonds at the present rates. So that's an easy question for me. What you should do with your own life depends on your own opportunity costs, how likely it is you're going to need the money suddenly at an inconvenient time, and a lot of other subjects.
嗯，邦特爾，我寧願持有我挑選的普通股而不是目前的政府債券。所以對我來說這是一個簡單的問題。你如何處理你自己的生活取決於你自己的機會成本、你突然需要在不便的時候使用這筆錢的機率以及其他許多因素。
14、大多數人只有幾次機會，可以透過抓住巨大的活動來做出巨大的改變
And but what he said over and over again to his grandchildren, including my mother, was the real opportunities that come to you are few. It's a very fortunate life that is just bathe an opportunity all the way. Most people just get a few times when they can make a huge difference by seizing a huge activity.And he said, when you find 1, my dear grandchildren, and you can clearly recognize it, he says, seize it boldly and don't do it small.
但他一遍又一遍地對他的孫子孫女們說，包括我的母親，真正的機會是很少的。能夠一路沐浴在機會中的人生是非常幸運的。大多數人只有幾次機會，可以透過抓住巨大的活動來做出巨大的改變。他說，當你找到一個，親愛的孫子孫女們，並且你可以清楚地認出它，他說，大膽地抓住它，不要做得太小。
15、享受生活的一部分就是看清現實，接受現實，無論你是否喜歡，都要適應現實
And we just better get used to it. And I think part of enjoying life is to just see it like it is and face it like it is and adapt to the reality as it is whether you like it or not, and the reality as it is is that Michigan is not going to dominate the world in autos the way it once did.
我們必須習慣這一點。我認為享受生活的一部分就是看清現實，接受現實，無論你是否喜歡，都要適應現實。
16、從歷史意義上說，生活的鐵律是如果你有幸處於領導地位，最終你必須交出接力棒。
Athens is never again going to be the leader of all civilization, nor is Rome, nor is London. The baton passes the iron rule of life in a historical sense is that if you're lucky enough to be in a leadership position, eventually you have to pass the baton. That's the rule of human systems. Biologically, we all have to die. And as successful systems, we eventually have to pass the baton.
雅典再也不會成為所有文明的領導者，羅馬不會，倫敦也不會。從歷史意義上說，生活的鐵律是，如果你有幸處於領導地位，最終你必須交出接力棒。這就是人類系統的規則。從生物學上講，我們所有人最終都必須死亡。作為成功的系統，我們最終必須交出接力棒。
17、試著從過去中學習並在未來做出決定
It's not such a big deal when you have to part with it in the end.I do not regret. Generally. I only regret is a good, it's like the envy and resentment, a lot of other things. It just it means generally I don't have a lot of regrets.
當你最終不得不放棄它時，這並不是什麼大不了的事。我不後悔。總的來說。我唯一後悔的是，它就像嫉妒和怨恨，還有很多其他的事情。總的來說，我只是沒有很多遺憾。
I could have done it differently that I had a failed marriage or I don't second guess the past. I try and learn from the past and make decisions of the future.Well, i don't gnash my teeth. I expect that any human being is going to make a lot of dumb decisions, and I've certainly made a lot of dumb decisions in my life, but not as many as most people. 我本可以有不同的做法，比如我曾經有過失敗的婚姻，或者我不會對過去感到猶豫不決。我試著從過去中學習並在未來做出決定。嗯，我不會咬牙切齒。我預料到任何人類都會做出很多愚蠢的決定，而我一生中也確實做出了很多愚蠢的決定，但不會像大多數人一樣多。