為什麼今年的流感如此嚴重？|經濟學人

寫在前面：為什麼會選擇這篇文章？

早上看到經濟學人這篇文章（如下文），感慨這兩年流感確實特別嚴重。去年春節時，小編家人全都感染了甲流，症狀明顯比疫情前的甲流嚴重許多。小紅書上也有不少人分享類似經歷和吐槽。這篇文章雖然講的是美國的情況，但其實全球很多地區都存在同樣的情況，文中很多原因和現象也值得我們參考。這個話題還可以作為日常英語口語素材，積累一些相關表達。

Graphic detail | Out cold

特別報道 | 深度寒流

Why has the flu been so bad this year?

為何今年流感疫情如此嚴峻？

For the first time since 2020, American flu cases and deaths exceed those of covid-19

2020年以來美國流感病例及死亡人數首次反超新冠疫情

AMERICA IS IN the throes of its worst flu season in at least seven years. The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that some 29m Americans have been infected since October—20% more than at the same point last year. For the first time since 2020, the flu is leading to more hospitalisations and deaths than covid-19 (see chart 1).

美國正經歷至少七年來最猛烈的流感季。據美國疾控中心（CDC）估算，自去年10月以來已有約2900萬國民感染流感病毒，較去年同期增長20%。這也是2020年以來流感導致的住院及死亡人數首次超過新冠（見圖1）。

Most American states are being hit equally hard (with the exception of remote places such as Alaska and Hawaii). Hospitals in Europe have also reported one of the worst outbreaks in years. However, in the southern hemisphere, where the flu season runs from April to the end of September, there was no evidence that this year’s strains were any more severe than usual.

全美各州幾乎無一倖免（阿拉斯加和夏威夷等邊遠地區除外）。歐洲多家醫院也報告了近年來最嚴重的流感暴發。但在南半球（流感季為每年4月至9月），尚無證據表明今年病毒株的致病性強於往年。

Only a fraction of flu cases are actually confirmed with a test, which makes an outbreak difficult to monitor. At the start of February hospitalisation rates for confirmed cases in America were 44% higher than during last year’s peak. Hospitalisations for all "influenza-like illnesses" (ie, those with the same symptoms as the flu but without a confirmed test result) are at their highest since at least 1997. Patients with these symptoms are also making up a higher share of doctor visits. During the week beginning February 3rd, such illnesses accounted for 7.8% of visits to general practitioners in America—the second time the share has exceeded 7.5% this season, but only the sixth time since 2000, including over the pandemic.

由於僅少量流感病例透過檢測確診，疫情監測面臨困難。截至2月初，美國確診病例住院率較去年峰值高出44%。所有"類流感疾病"（與流感症狀相似但未經核酸檢測確診）住院率創下至少1997年以來新高。此類症狀患者在就診數中佔比持續攀升：在2月3日當週，全美基層醫療機構7.8%的問診涉及這類疾病——這是本季度第二次突破7.5%閾值，自2000年以來僅第六次出現該現象（包括新冠大流行期間）。

Children, pregnant women, old people and those with weakened immune systems are the most vulnerable to serious complications from the flu. The hospital data show that Americans aged over 65 in particular are being more seriously affected than usual (see chart 2). During the worst weeks of last year’s flu season, they were hospitalised at 4.5 times the rate of those aged 50-64. This year that ratio has risen to six.

兒童、孕婦、老年人和免疫缺陷群體更易出現流感重症。醫院資料顯示，美國65歲以上人群尤其受到顯著衝擊（見圖2）。去年流感季高峰週期間，該群體住院率是50-64歲人群的4.5倍，今年該比率已升至6倍。

Experts cannot say with certainty why this season has been so severe. Some cyclical variation is to be expected: a bad season often follows a few milder ones. Covid-era lockdowns and mask-wearing have meant that fewer people have been exposed to the virus in recent years.

專家尚無法明確解釋本輪流感季為何如此嚴峻。自然週期性波動或是因素之一：劇烈暴發常出現在幾個平緩流感季後。新冠疫情期間的社交隔離與口罩佩戴措施，導致近年人群病毒接觸率降低。

Falling vaccination rates don’t help. By this point in the 2019-20 season roughly 69% of American children between the ages of six months and four years had been vaccinated. This season only around 54% have been. For pregnant women the vaccination rate has dropped from 55% to 37% in the same period; for those aged 65 and over, from 51% to 43%.

疫苗接種率持續走低雪上加霜。2019-20季同期，美國6個月至4歲兒童接種率約達69%，本季僅約54%。孕婦群體接種率同期從55%降至37%；65歲以上老人從51%降至43%。

At the same time, early data from those who have been vaccinated suggest that this year’s flu shots may have been less effective than usual. Evidence from the southern hemisphere suggests that they reduced hospitalisations among high-risk groups by 35%, compared with 50% the year before. (Vaccines require scientists to predict the most dominant strains ahead of each flu season.)

最新資料同時顯示，今年流感疫苗保護效力或低於預期。南半球研究證據表明，疫苗使高風險群體住院率降低35%，而去年同期為50%。（疫苗研發需科學家提前預判每季優勢病毒株）

America’s flu season typically ends in February. But hospitals are still under strain: when your correspondent spoke to an administrator at the Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston on February 19th, she described the emergency room as “out of control”.

美國流感季通常於2月結束。但醫療機構仍承壓運轉：本刊記者2月19日採訪波士頓麻省總醫院管理層時，對方稱急診科"已處於失控狀態"。

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