聯合國預測印度人口數量將在明年4月中旬超過中國，成為全球第一人口大國。
India is forecast to surpass China as the world's most populous country by mid-April next year, a United Nations report said.
圖源：聯合國網站截圖
路透社報道稱，自 1947 年獨立後，印度人口增長了超 10 億。從上世紀下半葉開始，印度就一直保持著高速的人口增長，年增長率達到了2%，預計到 2050 年，印度人口會達到 16.4 億。
India saw rapid population growth — almost 2 percent annually — for much of the second half of the last century. The UN projects that India's population will be 1.64 billion by 2050.
圖源：CNN
報道認為印度不太可能再一次經歷人口爆炸，印度的生育率在近幾十年裡已連續下滑：從1950年每名婦女生育5.7個孩子下降到如今每名婦女生育2個孩子，儘管這一下降速度相對其他亞洲國家和地區來說偏慢。
Yet India is not undergoing a population explosion. India's fertility rate has also fallen substantially in recent decades – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to two births per woman today – but the rate of decline has been slower.
據英國廣播公司（BBC）報道，世界上25歲以下的人口中有五分之一來自印度，47%的印度人年齡在25歲以下。經濟學傢什魯蒂·拉賈戈帕蘭在一篇新論文中指出：“這一代印度年輕人將成為知識和網路商品經濟中最大的消費者和勞動力來源，印度人將成為全球最大的人才庫。”
According to BBC, one in five people below 25 years in the world is from India and 47 percent of Indians are below the age of 25. "This generation of young Indians will be the largest consumer and labor source in the knowledge and network goods economy. Indians will be the largest pool of global talent," says Shruti Rajagopalan, an economist, in a new paper.
圖源：BBC網站報道截圖
報道認為，印度超越中國成為人口最大的國家，將更有利於印度爭取聯合國安理會常任理事國的席位。聯合國經濟和社會事務部人口司司長約翰•威爾莫斯（John Wilmoth）表示：“（作為人口最多的國家)，我認為你有一定的權利。”
It could, for example, strengthen India's claim of getting a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. "I think you have certain claims on things (by being the country with largest population)," says John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
圖源：CNN
報道也指出成為全球第一人口大國後帶來的挑戰。首先，印度需要為年輕的勞動年齡人口創造足夠的就業機會，來獲得人口紅利。但根據印度經濟監測中心（CMIE）的資料，印度只有40%的勞動年齡人口工作或想要工作。
India needs to create enough jobs for its young working age population to reap a demographic dividend. But only 40 percent of of India's working-age population works or wants to work, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
隨著女性生育和照顧孩子的時間變少，更多印度女性需要工作，但她們的境況並不盡如人意。同時，印度經濟監測中心資料顯示，僅有 10% 的印度適齡婦女進入了勞動力市場，相比之下，中國的這一數字為 69%。
More women would need jobs as they spend less time in their working age giving birth and looking after children. The picture here is bleaker: only 10 percent of working-age women were participating in the labor force in October, according to CMIE, compared with 69 percent in China.
圖源：視覺中國
然後是移民問題。大約有2億印度人在國內各地遷移，他們的人數肯定還會增長。大多數是離開農村到城市找工作的工人。“城市能為移民提供尚可的生活水平嗎？如果不能，我們最終會有更多的貧民窟和疾病。”印度喀拉拉邦移民與發展國際研究所的移民專家伊魯達亞·拉詹（S. Irudaya Rajan）說。
Then there's migration. Some 200 million Indians have migrated within the country — between states and districts — and their numbers are bound to grow. Most are workers who leave villages for cities to find work. "Can our cities provide migrants a reasonable living standard? Otherwise, we will end up with more slums and disease," says S. Irudaya Rajan, a migration expert at Kerala's Center for Development Studies.
人口學家說，印度還需要制止童婚、防止早婚，正確登記出生和死亡人數。出生性別比失衡，男孩比女孩多，這仍然令人擔憂。
Demographers say India also needs to stop child marriages, prevent early marriages and properly register births and deaths. A skewed sex ratio at birth — meaning more boys are born than girls — remains a worry.
圖源：視覺中國
人口學家還表示，印度的老齡化問題很少受到關注。如今，印度年齡中位數超過28歲，超過10%的印度人超過60歲。有學者認為，隨著勞動年齡人口的減少，贍養老年人將成為印度政府資源越來越大的負擔。家庭結構的變化以及空巢老人的增多帶來的問題也將不斷地浮出水面。
Demographers say the ageing of India receives little attention. In 1947, India's median age was 21. A paltry 5 percent of people were above the age of 60. Today, the median age is over 28, and more than 10 percent of Indians are over 60 years. "As the working-age population declines, supporting an older population will become a growing burden on the government's resources," says Rukmini S, author of Whole Numbers and Half Truths. "Family structures will have to be recast and elderly persons living alone will become an increasing source of concern," she says.
編輯：朱迪齊
實習生：周紅
來源：參考訊息 CNN BBC 路透社