美國特朗普政府在關稅政策上的倒行逆施，在美國國內引發強烈反對和擔憂。
英國《金融時報》4月12日發文，指出從微波爐到芭比娃娃，美國消費者高度依賴中國產品，特朗普關稅下，他們無法很快找到替代品，面臨消費價格上漲或無貨可買的局面。甚至，一些人想度過涼爽的夏天都要“付出高昂代價”。
從芭比娃娃、電風扇到微波爐統統要漲價
去年，美國進口的電子遊戲機、食品加工機和電風扇等產品中，超過四分之三產自中國；美國人購買的娃娃、三輪車、滑板車等玩具，也有四分之三產自中國。眼下，所有想要購買這些商品的美國消費者都將面對更高的價格。
More than three-quarters of the video game consoles, food processors and electric fans imported into the US last year were made in China. Anyone hoping to purchase toys will also have to grapple with higher prices. China made 75 percent of the dolls, tricycles, scooters and other wheeled toys delivered to US consumers from abroad last year.
早在特朗普升級關稅戰之前，芭比娃娃的製造商美泰公司就警告稱，該公司可能會提高在美國的售價，以彌補關稅帶來的影響。除了芭比娃娃，這家美國玩具製造商還生產風火輪汽車和UNO紙牌，該公司40%的產品都在中國製造。
Mattel, the toymaker behind the Barbie doll, warned it could raise US prices to offset the impact of the levies — and that was before Trump's latest escalation in the tit-for-tat tariff war. The California-based company, which also makes Hot Wheels cars and the Uno card game, said 40 percent of its products were made in China.
美國彼得森國際經濟研究所高階研究員查德·鮑恩表示，和特朗普第一個任期相比，美國對中國產品徵收關稅的稅率更高、速度更快，而且涉及很多新型消費品，這些措施的速度和規模意味著，成本更有可能轉嫁給美國消費者。
“如今，（美國）消費者購買這類產品時，價格大幅上漲的可能性要大得多。”鮑恩說。
《金融時報》指出，對於那些尚未對關稅做好準備的美國人來說，想要度過一個涼爽的夏天可能要付出高昂代價。去年美國從海外進口的風扇中，有90%來自中國；獨立式空調中，有40%來自中國。就上述兩類產品而言，中國佔據著全球出口市場的主導地位。
微波爐也是如此，中國控制了全球四分之三的出口市場，去年美國進口的微波爐有90%來自中國。
The levies mean staying cool during the summer months may prove expensive for Americans not already prepared — nine in 10 electric fans bought from abroad in the US last year came from China, as did 40 percent of self-contained air- conditioning units. China dominates the global export market for both.Americans thinking of purchasing a new microwave will also face potential price increases; 90 percent of those imported into the US last year came from China, and Beijing controls three-quarters of the global export market.
2021年2月，浙江省湖州市某空調總裝車間內，出口北美的空調正在被裝配。圖源：VCG
專家：想把遊戲機、手機制造業遷出中國十分困難
英國貿易部前官員、現就職於SEC Newgate諮詢公司的艾莉·雷尼森說，中國在全球眾多出口產品中佔據主要地位，這意味著尋找替代製造商並不容易。
她表示，近年來，美國和西方企業一直在將供應鏈從中國轉移到其他亞洲國家，但其組裝的產品仍大量使用中國原材料和零部件。在雷尼森看來，能否替代中國產品取決於針對這些具體產品的規則有多嚴格，以及相關國家對美國的“友好程度”。
而對於遊戲機和手機等電子產品而言，想把製造業遷出中國尤為困難，因為其供應鏈複雜，對製造這些產品的技術要求也很高。
China's dominance of so many global exports means finding alternative manufacturers will not be easy, according to former UK trade department official Allie Renison, now at consultancy SEC Newgate."American and Western businesses have been shifting their supply chains out of China and to other Asian countries in recent years," she said. "But with so many Chinese raw materials and component parts still going into the products they're assembling, much will depend on how exacting these product-specific rules are and how US-friendly the countries are."Moving manufacturing out of China is particularly difficult for electronic products such as games consoles and mobile phones because of their complex supply chains and the skill required to make them.
美國密歇根州立大學商學院教授傑森·米勒表示：“快速脫鉤將非常困難，特別是對於智慧手機等必須創造額外產能、培訓工人和建立替代供應鏈的商品而言。”
美國銀行分析師瓦姆西·莫漢則直言，即使蘋果公司將其在印度生產的iPhone全部（約2500萬部）供應給美國市場，也只能滿足美國一半的需求。
儘管蘋果公司近年來逐步擴大在印度的業務，但市場分析機構Counterpoint Research估計，蘋果約80%的智慧手機依然是在中國生產。
"Rapid decoupling will be quite difficult, especially for goods like smartphones where additional capacity must be created, workers trained and alternative supply lines for inputs established,” said Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University's College of Business.If Apple were to reserve its entire iPhone output from India for the US market, it would still only cover about half of the 50mn-plus models the company ships to America each year, according to Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan.Overall, four in five of the smartphones and games consoles imported into the US last year were made in China. Trump has not ruled out some US companies being exempted from reciprocal tariffs, but the worry for shoppers is that other products may not be available at all.
來源：觀察者網 金融時報
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