Don’t propose with a diamond
不要用鑽石求婚
英文部分選自經濟學人20250208期財經板塊
Don’t propose with a diamond
Lab-grown gems may destroy both their own value and that of natural rocks, too
實驗室培育的鑽石可能會同時摧毀天然和非天然鑽石的價值
A diamond heart cut in half.
Valentine’s day is fast approaching. Inside sock drawers around the world, men (and a few women) will be hiding rings intended to convey their everlasting love. Since De Beers, the world’s leading diamond company, ingeniously announced that “diamonds are forever” in the 1940s, most engagement rings have included a diamond—and an expensive one at that. The average American will spend $5,000 on the band for their proposal.
情人節快到了。這時節，世界各地想必有許多男人（和少數女人）會悄悄在襪子抽屜裡藏起戒指，準備向心愛之人許下永恆不滅的承諾。1940年代，全球頂級鑽石公司戴比爾斯（De Beers）提出了那句膾炙人口的廣告宣言“鑽石恆久遠，一顆永流傳”。自那以後，大多訂婚戒指都會鑲嵌一顆價格不菲的鑽石。據統計，一個普通美國人大約會花費大約5000美元購買求婚鑽戒。
A lot has changed in recent years, however. The most important development is the soaring popularity of lab-grown diamonds. Identical to their natural alternatives—except to gemologists with specialist equipment—such stones now make up around half of the American DER market, reckons Martin Rapaport, chairman and founder of Rapaport, a diamond pricer, up from a tiny fraction a decade ago. (DER is the unglamorous acronym the industry uses for “diamond engagement ring”.) American jewellers report that lab-grown diamonds now account for more than half their sales of loose diamonds (ie, those not in a ring), an increase from one in ten at the beginning of 2020.
不過，時移世易。尤其是實驗室培育鑽石人氣飆升。培育鑽和天然鑽石几乎完全一樣，只有使用專業檢測裝置的珠寶專家才能區分。鑽石定價機構Raraport的創始人兼主席馬丁·拉帕波特（Martin Rapaport）表示，十年前，實驗室培育鑽石在美國鑽石訂婚戒指(DER)市場中還微不足道，現在已經佔據半壁江山。美國的珠寶商也證明，實驗室培育鑽石在裸鑽（未鑲嵌的鑽石）銷售中的佔比已經超過50%，而在2020年初，這個比例僅為十分之一。
For the past few years it has been easier to produce a diamond in a factory than to extract one from the ground. This is reflected in price tags. At one leading jeweller, $5,000 spent on a lab-grown diamond will yield a rock roughly four times bigger than if the money was spent on a natural diamond of similar quality. As a consequence, the parsimonious boyfriend now faces an alluring proposition: a larger, nicer diamond; a happier fiancée; and a healthy status symbol to boot. Little surprise, then, that the average size of diamonds purchased in America is on the rise, even as the amount of money spent on engagement rings is falling. The world has entered an era of frugal matrimony.
在過去幾年中，在工廠裡生產鑽石比從礦場開採簡單多了，而這種變化也反映到了價格上面。以一個頭部珠寶商為例，假如同樣是花費5000美元，能買到的實驗室培育鑽石的尺寸會是天然鑽石的五倍，且品質基本相同。因此，一個精打細算的男朋友現在面臨更吸引人的選項: 更大、品質更好的鑽石，更滿意的未婚妻，以及一個高性價比的身份地位象徵。不出意料，美國市場上購買的鑽石平均克拉數在上升，然而訂婚戒指的總開銷卻在下降。世界正在步入一個節儉婚姻的時代。
So far the trend has been excellent news for sellers of lab-grown diamonds, and terrible for those flogging the traditional variety. America, by far the biggest purchaser of lab-grown diamonds, has seen its imports of cut-and-polished natural diamonds fall by half between 2022 and 2024, according to Rapaport. De Beers’s revenues have decreased by a third. Some industry analysts extrapolate from this and foresee a future filled to the brim with lab-grown gems. And for other kinds of products they would be correct. With “ordinary goods”, consumer demand moves inversely to prices: when something gets cheaper, people want more of it. When air travel was expensive, for example, few could afford it. Now you can hop from London to Madrid for £50 ($63), many more do so—and the airline business has boomed.
到目前為止，這樣的趨勢對實驗室培育鑽石是利好，對天然鑽石則是利空。根據Rapaport的資料，作為實驗室培育鑽石的最大買家，美國天然鑽石的進口量在2022到2024年之間減少了50%。同時，全球最大的鑽石公司戴比爾斯的營收縮水了三分之一。部分行業分析師據此推測，實驗室培育鑽石遲早將一統天下。如果換成其他商品類別，或許他們的推測就是正確的。對於比如“普通商品”來說，消費者需求與價格呈反比：價格下降，則需求增加。例如，從前飛機航班價格昂貴，幾乎沒人能負擔得起。現在從倫敦乘飛往馬德里只需要50英鎊（63美元），所以，很多人都會選擇坐飛機，航空業也因此蓬勃發展。
However, as anyone who has bought one is aware, engagement rings are not ordinary. Being a (hopefully) one-off purchase to celebrate a significant milestone, the price tag is as important as the ring itself. A large, gleaming rock on a partner’s finger illustrates the strength of the proposer’s love (and perhaps, more accurately, the size of their wallet). Diamonds are the stone of choice because they are scarce and, as a result, expensive.
不過，買過的人都知道，訂婚戒指可不是普通的商品，而是（希望是）為了紀念某個重要時刻一次性購買的東西，所以其價格和戒指本身一樣重要。求婚時，伴侶手指上閃閃發光的大鑽戒象徵著求婚者的愛有多深（其實，可能更能反映出求婚者的錢包有多厚）。鑽石之所以是首選寶石，是因為它稀有，且因此價格昂貴。
Lab-grown diamonds upset this equation, as they are both more common and indistinguishable from a mined rock. Their availability is not limited by what was formed billions of years ago in the Earth’s crust, nor by the desire of miners to spend lots of money to extract them, but by what sellers find profitable. Wholesale synthetic-diamond prices have fallen by 90% over the past six years, according to Paul Zimnisky, a diamond-industry analyst, meaning that rocks can now be sold at much lower prices for similarly strong profits. And wholesale prices are set to keep falling as manufacturing techniques continue to be refined and competition between manufacturers intensifies.
實驗室培育鑽石打破了這個局面，因為它們不僅遍地都是，而且和天然鑽石一模一樣。培育鑽石的供應量既不依賴於地球上億年間自然形成的礦脈資源，也不受制於礦場主是否願意投入大筆資金開採所影響，而主要取決於賣家是否能從中賺到錢。根據鑽石行業分析師Paul Zimnisky（保羅•金姆尼斯基）的說法，過去六年裡，合成鑽石的批發價格已經下降90%，這意味著商家現在可以以更低的價格出售這些鑽石，依然能賺到同樣高的利潤。隨著生產技術的不斷進步和製造商間的競爭加劇，未來合成鑽石的批發價格可能還會繼續下降。
Will lab-grown diamonds become cheap enough to undermine the entire industry? Owing to the similarities between synthetic and natural diamonds, at some point the stones may no longer work as a way to signal both love and wealth. Jewellers have so far not passed on all of the collapse in wholesale prices to consumers, preferring instead to increase mark-ups. Indeed, Mr Zimnisky reckons that retail margins on lab-grown diamonds have climbed to nearly 90% for three-carat rocks, up from 30% five years ago. Margins on mined stones are still about 30%.
實驗室培育鑽石的價格已經低到能夠顛覆整個行業嗎？由於合成鑽石和天然鑽石的相似性，或許某天，鑽石不再是表達愛意、彰顯財富的方式。目前，珠寶商還沒有讓消費者享受到批發價格下降的好處，而是更傾向於提高加成。事實上，金尼斯基先生認為，三克拉實驗室培育鑽石的零售利潤率已經從五年前的30%提高到90%。天然鑽石的零售利潤率仍在30%左右。
Rock bottom
But this dynamic seems unlikely to last. For one thing, wholesale synthetic-diamond prices may not yet have bottomed out: “I can see $10-15 a carat coming soon in lab diamonds’ future,” predicts Mr Rapaport. Moreover, the diamond market is sufficiently competitive that jewellers will struggle to retain such fat margins. Some online retailers now flog healthy stones for just a few hundred dollars. Although a boyfriend might be happy to take a chance on a $4,000, larger lab-grown diamond rather than a $6,000 smaller, natural stone, he will probably turn his nose up at a $300 ring compared with a $6,000 one. Nobody wants to be quite that cheap a husband. As lab-grown diamonds become a feature of costume jewellery and the wares of discount retailers (such as Pandora, which already sells rings featuring lab-grown diamonds for just $200), their status as a luxury gift worthy of a Valentine’s Day engagement looks set to crumble.
但這種情況似乎難以持續。一方面，培育鑽石的批發價格或許尚未觸底。拉帕波特先生預測“實驗室培育鑽石的單價很快就會降至每克拉10-15美元。”此外，鑽石市場競爭激烈，珠寶商很難保持如此豐厚的利潤。一些線上零售商如今以幾百美元的價格出售品相完好的鑽石。雖然相比花6000美元買一個小的天然鑽石，男朋友可能會樂意冒險花費4000美元買一顆更大的培育鑽石。但如果價格低至300美元，他卻可能會嗤之以鼻，畢竟沒有人想做如此小氣的丈夫。隨著培育鑽石成為時尚珠寶和折扣零售商（如潘多拉，其出售的培育鑽石戒指售價僅200美元）的標配產品，它們作為情人節訂婚禮物的奢華地位似乎即將崩塌。
註釋：
Costume jewellery（時尚珠寶）指的是價格較低、通常不使用貴重金屬或寶石製作的珠寶。它通常由合成材料、塑膠、玻璃、銅、鍍金或鍍銀金屬等非貴重材料製成。時尚珠寶的設計時尚、華麗，主要用於裝飾和搭配日常服裝，而不像傳統珠寶那樣具備收藏價值或投資價值。
This could spell yet more trouble for companies selling natural diamonds, whether in Antwerp and New York or on the high street. In the face of growing competition, the price of a ring-size single-carat stone has fallen by 37% over the past six years. If, as seems likely, lab-grown diamonds lose their signalling value, a much steeper fall in prices is in store. To survive, luxury jewellers will have to persuade their clientele that a natural diamond is still worth the outlay at a time when less-well-heeled shoppers will be buying near-identical stones for their children’s birthdays. Perhaps, then, De Beers was wrong. A diamond is not for ever.
那些在安特衛普、紐約或是繁華商業街區售賣天然鑽石的公司可能會面臨更多麻煩。面對日益激烈的競爭，用於戒指的單克拉鑽石價格在過去六年下跌了37%。如果實驗室的培育鑽石失去象徵價值，那麼其價格可能會出現更大幅度的下跌。奢侈品珠寶商想要存活，就必須說服他們的客戶，天然鑽石仍然值得如此高昂的價格，儘管二者幾乎沒有差別，但只有囊中羞澀的人才會為他們的孩子購買人工培育鑽石。也許，戴比爾斯錯了，鑽石並非恆久遠。
翻譯組：
Dreamian: 尋找方向
Harold，不狂不放不申花
Humi，學習財經的金融小白，不負韶華，平視世界
校對組：
Alexis, Less is more
風箏，熱愛生活熱愛翻譯熱愛搞錢熱愛貓咪
Hannah，女, 愛讀財經的金融小白 經濟學人唯粉
感想
本期感想
Intro，男，政府臨時工，前理想主義者兼積極的悲觀主義者
親愛的天然鑽石，準備好被河南的培育鑽石甩在身後了嗎？
天然鑽石，曾幾何時，你以“珍貴無比”的標籤讓無數人甘願為你傾盡所有，然而，河南的培育鑽石出現後，經濟學家都要站出來叫你“價效比低”。培育鑽石，無論是從原料、技術還是生產效率，成本都被狠狠壓低，價格自然比天然鑽石友好得多。再說了，河南的培育鑽石產業已經開始規模化生產，產量大幅提升，價格下調那是必然的趨勢！難道你還敢高高在上地讓消費者為你買單嗎？
曾幾何時，天然鑽石的背後藏著多少血腥的故事。全球各地的礦區，充斥著剝削與奴役，所謂的“血鑽”交易，就是一段難以洗淨的歷史。而河南的培育鑽石，簡直是為全球消費者鋪開了一條“無血、無壓迫”的光明大道。沒有礦工被迫勞作，也沒有人命為此付出代價，科技的進步讓社會責任和道德更加光輝。看，你的血鑽歷史也許就此成為過去式，未來是道德與良知並行的時代。
所以，天然鑽石，你該擔心的不只是市場份額的逐漸縮水，更是整個行業的轉型升級。河南培育鑽石代表了先進生產力的前進方向，它不僅滿足了消費者對於美麗的需求，還順應了科技發展與社會責任的雙重趨勢。未來的鑽石市場，天然鑽石的日子會越來越難過，而培育鑽石，將會是新時代消費者的首選。
耶穌的中國老家在河南，鑽石的未來也在河南。想想吧，這片土地，孕育了無數的歷史與傳奇，今天，它又將成為未來鑽石的發源地。
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