Leaders | Spanish lessons
經濟學人社論｜西班牙式經驗
英文部分選自經濟學人20241207期社論版塊
Leaders | Spanish lessons
What Spain can teach the rest of Europe
Our number-crunching suggests it was the best-performing rich economy in 2024
資料分析顯示西班牙是2024年表現最佳的富裕經濟體
A dozen years ago Spain was a byword for economic failure. The country’s government and banks appeared to be locked in a death spiral and depended on bail-outs. Young people were leaving the country or protesting at their lack of opportunities. Homes lay half-built and airports abandoned, relics of a burst construction bubble.
十幾年前，西班牙曾是經濟失敗的代名詞。政府和銀行似乎被困在了惡性迴圈之中，依賴外援來紓困。年輕人或是離開西班牙，或是抗議缺乏機會。房屋爛尾，機場荒廢，都是拜盲目大興土木、房地產泡沫破裂所賜。
How that has changed. By our reckoning, the country is on course to be the best-performing rich-world economy of 2024 across a range of measures including GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, fiscal policy and the performance of the stock market. Both overall economic growth and the pace of job creation are running faster than in America, which has been the envy of the rich world.
如今，西班牙的頹勢已經完全改變。我們根據GDP增長、通脹、失業率、財政政策和股市表現等多個指標估算，西班牙有望在2024年成為全球表現最好的富裕經濟體。其總體經濟增長和新增就業的速度均超過美國，而美國一直是富裕國家的羨慕物件。
Greece and Ireland, which were also crisis-stricken a decade ago, have fared well in 2024, too. So has Denmark, where the economy has been boosted by the success of Novo Nordisk’s anti-obesity drugs. But it is Spain that offers the best rejoinder to those who say Europe is doomed to stagnation. Its economy is reaping the reward of past reforms. That offers lessons for the rest of the continent, but should also serve as a warning for Spanish policymakers today.
雖然希臘和愛爾蘭也曾在十年前深陷危機，但在2024年同樣表現出色。靠著諾和諾德（Novo Nordisk）減肥藥的成功，丹麥的經濟也有所提振。然而，對於那些認為歐洲註定會陷入停滯的人來說，西班牙的表現才是最有力的反駁。西班牙經濟正在收穫過去改革的成果。這為其他歐洲國家提供了借鑑，也應為今天的西班牙政策制定者敲響警鐘。
One lesson is to focus on services and not fetishise manufacturing. Although industrial production has not fallen as fast in Spain as in Germany, partly thanks to lower energy costs, it has still stagnated. But tourism has bounced back from its pandemic low, and the country is moving up the value chain, increasingly exporting consulting services and technological know-how as well as sun and sangría. Non-tourism services have risen from around 5.5% of GDP before the pandemic to between 7-8% now, says BBVA, a bank.
其中一個重要的啟示是，要重視發展服務業而非過分強調製造業。儘管由於較低的能源成本，西班牙的工業產出並沒有像德國那樣急轉直下，但總體上仍然陷於停滯。反觀旅遊業，它已經從疫情期間的低谷迅速反彈，得益於充沛的陽光與桑格利亞酒吸引了一眾遊客，並且西班牙正逐步向價值鏈上游移動，增加諮詢服務和技術專長的出口。根據西班牙對外銀行（BBVA）的統計資料，非旅遊類服務行業在西班牙GDP中的佔比從疫情前的約5.5%增長到了如今的7%-8%。
Another lesson is to stay open. Whereas young people once left Spain in search of opportunities, now they arrive instead. Since 2019 the country’s foreign-born workforce has risen by around 1.2m, mostly from Latin America. Many of these migrants are in low-paid, low-skilled employment, meaning that though the economy is 7% bigger than in 2019, it is only 3% bigger after adjusting for population growth. Yet that is still better than in countries such as Britain and Canada, which have seen similar immigration booms, but a decline in GDP per person.
另一個啟示就是要保持開放。過去，西班牙的年輕人往往為了追求機會而背井離鄉，如今西班牙卻成了年輕人的目的地。自2019年以來，西班牙的外籍勞動力增加了大約120萬人，主要來自拉丁美洲。許多移民從事低薪、低技能的工作，這意味著儘管經濟總量比2019年增長了7%，但如果考慮人口增長，實際增幅只有3%。然而即便如此，這依然勝過英國和加拿大等國。這些國家在移民湧入的情況下，人均GDP卻出現了下滑。
Spain has also welcomed investment from Chinese firms. On December 10th Stellantis, a carmaker, and CATL, a Chinese battery-maker, said they would build a new battery factory in Zaragoza. (Stellantis’s biggest shareholder, Exor, part-owns The Economist’s parent company.) Chery International, a Chinese carmaker, has chosen Barcelona as the site for its first European manufacturing plant.
西班牙同樣歡迎中國企業的投資。12月10日，汽車製造商斯特蘭蒂斯（Stellantis）與中國電池製造商寧德時代（CATL）宣佈，它們將在薩拉戈薩合作建設一座新的電池工廠。（斯特蘭蒂斯最大的股東Exor也部分持有《經濟學人》母公司股權。）此外，中國汽車製造商奇瑞國際（Chery International）已選擇巴塞羅那作為其在歐洲首座製造工廠的落戶地。
Most important, Spain shows that structural reforms bring long-term rewards. Much of its recent success reflects decisions after the financial crisis to reform its banks and labour market. The financial sector has consolidated, and labour-market reforms have made it easier to renegotiate contracts and encouraged bosses to take on more permanent staff. A package of measures aiming to boost renewables, including abolishing the “sun tax” that levied additional fees on solar power, has helped green energy boom.
最為重要的是，西班牙的成功表明結構性改革能帶來長期回報。西班牙近期取得的很多成功都要歸功於金融危機後政府對銀行和勞動力市場進行改革。金融企穩增強，勞動力市場的改革讓重新協商勞動合同變得更加容易，同時也鼓勵僱主與更多員工簽署長期合同。隨著可再生能源一攬子刺激政策的出臺，例如取消太陽能產業額外徵收的“太陽稅”等，都助力了綠色能源蓬勃發展。
2015年，西班牙政府批准了皇家法令，引入了太陽稅，對使用光伏裝置自用發電的消費者徵收費用。也就是說，那些透過太陽能電池板自己生產能源的人必須為此付費。
該稅的既定目標是保證電力系統的經濟可持續性，並防止自用消費者“脫離”電網，同時在其板不能產生足夠能量時繼續受益於電網的支援。然而，該稅收遭到多個組織的嚴厲批評，認為它只會阻礙可再生能源的增長。
source: https://zh-cn.renovablesverdes.com
Still, Spain must not rest easy. Tourism and immigration are bidding up house prices; investment and productivity growth remain elusive. An unwieldy and fragile coalition government is going in the wrong direction. It is unable to pass the further reforms needed to boost long-term growth, including in education and services. It is embracing fiddly regulations, driving up costs for businesses. It will need to find money to increase defence spending which, at just 1.3% of GDP, is much too low.
但是西班牙也不能因此而放鬆警惕。旅遊業和移民正推高房價，投資和生產力並沒有顯著增加。一個鬆散脆弱的聯合政府似乎沒有找準方向，沒能透過更進一步的改革促進教育和服務等領域的長期發展。現在的西班牙政府熱衷於各項管控，增加了企業的經營成本。同時，國防開支只佔GDP 1.3%，比例太低，因此西班牙政府還需要籌集資金增加國防投入。
Spain shows that European economies can overcome seemingly insurmountable challenges. It must take care that it does not start to illustrate the danger of standing still.
西班牙的表現證明了歐洲經濟體可以戰勝看似不可逾越的挑戰。同時，也要注意不能由此開始止步不前。
翻譯組：
Leon，男，駐外民工，經濟學人讀者
Yo，女，種下過流星，立志不做大鴕鳥
Rachel，學理工科，愛跳芭蕾，熱愛文藝的非典型翻譯
審校組：
Lucian，醫學翻譯，靈魂在傑作中冒險
Clark，願以此功德迴向給眾生，離苦得樂
Rachel，學理工科，愛跳芭蕾，熱愛文藝的非典型翻譯
Neil，男，外貿民工，經濟學人鐵粉
這些年歐洲太需要好訊息了，歐債危機，疫情，俄烏戰爭，都給歐洲的增長帶來不確定性。曾令人羨慕嚮往的歐洲似乎一去不復返。德國原本一枝獨秀，苦苦支撐著歐盟，現在製造業低迷，經濟表現不佳。西班牙的成績確實讓人驚喜，如果能持續，那真是驗證了我們的老話：三十年河東，三十年河西。
旅遊業的復甦貢獻了12%的增長，旅遊業疫情前一直是西班牙的支柱產業之一，疫情結束，遊客激增倒是意料之中。此次西班牙經濟增長也有中國製造業的貢獻，這得益於西班牙政府改革開放，積極吸引外部投資。除資本之外，青年勞動力也大量流入。對於一個經濟體來說，如果勞動力呈現年輕化，未來的發展是有活力的，空間也是可以想象；相反，就需面對老齡化的風險。西班牙現在不愁勞動力，需要改善的情況是失業率依然較高。另外，外來人口的勞動力整體素質低下，專業素質有待提高。
總之，在當下不利的經濟環境下，西班牙能異軍突起，實屬不易。有國際形勢師分析未來或許只看兩個國家，中美，歐盟會沒落。世界的發展需要多元。歐盟這麼大的一個市場失去了發展活力對全球經濟都是極大的損失，真心希望歐洲各國能再次崛起。
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