Leaders | Seoul saved
經濟學人社論｜首爾得救
英文部分選自經濟學人20241207期社論版塊
Leaders | Seoul saved
Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea should resign, or be impeached
His coup attempt was foiled. But grave tests still remain for the country.
As with many attempted coups, it started late at night. Around 10pm on December 3rd Yoon Suk Yeol, the conservative president of South Korea, suddenly declared martial law: banning all political parties and severely curbing media freedom. Soldiers were deployed to the parliament building and riot police lined the roads. But six hours later, after opposition politicians had barricaded themselves inside parliament and thousands of courageous protesters had taken to the streets, he abruptly reversed course.
夜闌人靜，更漏將殘，宜摔杯為號，宜發起政變。12月3日晚10點左右，韓國保守派總統尹錫悅突然宣佈戒嚴：禁止一切黨派活動並嚴格限制媒體自由。並陳兵於國會大樓，派防暴警察列隊街道。但僅僅六小時後，面對固守國會內部的反對派政治人物、成千上萬勇敢的街頭抗議者，他突然撤銷了戒嚴令。
That a liberal democracy should suffer so brazen a coup attempt is as disgraceful as it is shocking. The good news is that South Koreans swiftly and firmly rejected it. The furious crowds in Seoul insisted that Mr Yoon had no right to take away their freedoms, confronting soldiers who seemed visibly uncomfortable with what they had been ordered to do. Lawmakers voted unanimously against the imposition of martial law. Even Mr Yoon’s own party stoutly refused to back him. In short, the checks and balances held, at least for now.
這場政變企圖如此肆無忌憚，其惡劣程度令人震驚，難以想象會發生在一個自由民主的國家。好訊息是韓國人民迅速且堅決地加以抵制。憤怒的首爾民眾堅稱尹錫悅無權剝奪他們的自由，並與那些顯然也對命令感到不滿計程車兵正面對峙。議員們一致投票反對戒嚴令，甚至連尹錫悅所在的黨派也堅決不予支援。簡言之，制衡達成，至少目前如此。
The bad news is that the story is not over. South Korea is a youngish democracy that was under military rule until the 1980s and it has taken a beating. Mr Yoon is still president. What happens in the next few weeks is of importance both to South Korea and the politics of East Asia.
壞訊息是，這場風波依然未平。20世紀80年代之前，韓國一直處於軍事統治之下。加入西式民主陣營也不過數十年之久，且其尚顯年輕的民主體制已受重創。尹錫悅仍然在位。未來幾周的局勢發展對韓國與東亞政治都至關重要。
Mr Yoon’s motives are still not known. He was losing his grip and beset by scandals, including one involving his wife being filmed accepting a luxury handbag as a gift. His approval ratings fell to around 20% last month, down from around 50% when he took office in 2022. His agenda was being blocked by the opposition, led by the Democratic Party (DP), which won legislative elections in the spring and had just trimmed his budget by $3bn, or 0.16% of GDP. Such things are normal in a democracy, but Mr Yoon claimed that the National Assembly had “become a monster”. He even implied that its members were collaborating with North Korean “communist forces”. He provided no evidence for this slur.
尹氏的動機至今不明。他逐漸失去對政局的把控，而且醜聞不斷，其中就包括他的妻子被拍到收下一隻奢侈品包包。上個月，他的支援率從2022年上任時的約50%驟降至20%左右。共同民主黨在春季立法選舉中獲勝，並剛剛將他的預算削減了30億美元，相當於GDP的0.16%。這在西式民主國家並不罕見，但尹錫悅卻聲稱國民議會已然 “變成了一頭怪獸”。他甚至暗示國民議會議員與朝鮮 “共產主義勢力 ”勾結，但未提供任何證據。
Mr Yoon should resign immediately. He has proved himself unfit for any office, let alone the presidency of South Korea. Rich, free and a key member of the global coalition of democracies, it is a treaty ally with America, a supporter of Ukraine and a nation that has stood firm against communist aggression since the 1950s. It is also creative and innovative in fields as varied as artificial intelligence and pop music. It is alarming that the president of a country that stands as an example of a successful democratic transition would flirt with reverting to autocracy.
尹錫悅應立即辭職。他早已證明自己不適合擔任任何公職，更不配擔任韓國總統。韓國是一個富裕、自由的國家，是全球西式民主國家聯盟的重要成員，是美國的條約盟友，是烏克蘭的支持者。自 20 世紀 50 年代以來，韓國一直堅定反對共產主義擴張。不管是在人工智慧領域，還是在流行音樂方面，韓國皆展現出創造性和創新精神。令人悚然的是，作為民主轉型成功的典範，尹錫悅竟然有恢復專制的想法。
If Mr Yoon does not step down, the impeachment proceedings against him that have already started should press ahead. Securing the necessary two-thirds majority would require only eight members of his own People’s Power Party (PPP) to vote against him. They should do so in large numbers, even if it puts the opposition in charge. Their spines ought to be stiffened by cabinet resignations and mass demonstrations. Besides, Mr Yoon’s ties to the PPP are recent and shallow.
如果尹錫悅不主動下臺，那麼已經啟動的彈劾程式就必須持續推進。只需要他所在的人民力量黨（PPP）中8人投票反對他，就能湊夠所需的三分之二多數。即便這可能把權力交給在野黨，執政黨議員也應當紛紛投出反對票。內閣成員的辭職和大規模示威活動想必能給予他們底氣。再者，尹錫悅與人民力量黨的關係本就淺顯且歷時不久。
Even if Mr Yoon is ejected, it will be too soon to relax. South Korea’s institutions have proved resilient. But politics remains polarised and bitter, in a world where that often saps the spirit of democracy. In addition, South Korea’s next chapter may be difficult. Mr Yoon, for all his dire faults, was pro-American. A president from the DP would lean more towards China than he did, and may take a less robust view of North Korea. Expect further twists and turns in this terrifying K-drama.
即便尹錫悅被罷免，依然不宜鬆懈。韓國的制度展現出了韌性，但政治極化現象嚴重，矛盾尖銳，這往往會侵蝕民主精神。此外，韓國接下來的局勢可能會非常棘手。儘管尹錫悅存在諸多嚴重問題，但他親美這一點從未變過。如果下一屆總統來自共同民主黨（DP），則可能會更加親華，對朝鮮的態度也可能趨於緩和。因此，這部韓國政治大戲仍將充滿變數，讓我們拭目以待！
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