中國日報專訪波士頓諮詢廖天舒：多項指標釋放積極訊號，下半年消費市場有望反彈

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文 | 中國日報記者樊菲菲

廖天舒

BCG董事總經理

全球資深合夥人

中國區主席

提振消費是中國2025年經濟增長的第一要務，在一系列促消費政策的推動下，中國消費市場今年有望獲得恢復動能，增長潛力巨大。

【譯文】

近日，廖天舒在接受《中國日報》專訪時指出：“中國消費市場仍處於修復提振過程中，消費品類以舊換新政策對消費恢復起到了巨大拉動作用。”她還希望國補政策能夠延續，因為當前的以舊換新政策鼓勵了消費者去購買低頻消費類產品，如電子產品、家電、傢俱等。

她補充道：“我們希望能夠看到進一步鼓勵購買高頻消費類產品的措施以及對服務業的幫扶補助措施。此類幫扶補助措施可以具體到特定人群，如有孩人群、低收入人群、大學生人群等，可對消費起到更大的刺激作用。”

廖天舒表示，如果下半年能出臺此類利好政策，她會非常看好中國市場今年的消費前景，並強調需要出臺更多刺激政策來提振消費，包括創造新就業機會、提升家庭收入預期、穩定樓市、活躍股市等，從而真正釋放消費潛力。

今年中國政府工作報告將大力提振消費和全面擴大內需作為2025年首要工作任務。

中國消費市場經歷了持續復甦。社會消費品零售總額是衡量消費能力的重要指標，中國國家統計局釋出的資料顯示，2025年5月份該指標同比增長6.4%，月度增速為2024年以來最高。網上零售額依然是消費領域的一大亮點，前5月同比增長8.5%。

為進一步刺激消費，一月份中國政府出臺了一系列更大範圍實施消費品以舊換新政策的措施，支援資金由去年的1500億元（約合209億美元）增加至3000億元，並將手機、平板、智慧手錶（手環）等納入補貼範圍。

廖天舒指出，中國消費人群總體上持謹慎態度，迴歸理性和價效比，注重產品質量和價值，零售企業商家應提供更高的品質、更好的創新。

BCG預計，未來十年，每年將有數以千萬計的中國消費者邁入中等收入群體，因此她表示：“我們依然非常看好中國消費市場的長期潛力。”她還補充道，越來越多的消費者傾向於透過購物來滿足情感需求，近期Labubu毛絨玩具席捲全球就是例證。

她表示，中國Z世代消費者（即出生於1990年代中期和2010年代初期的人群）非常成熟理性，注重產品品質和價值，對文化IP的偏好日益增強。

她還指出，人工智慧等前沿數字化技術未來將對消費產生顛覆性影響，目前企業紛紛利用人工智慧技術增效降本。

中國工信部資訊通訊經濟專家委員會委員盤和林表示，應鼓勵企業運用大資料、人工智慧和雲計算等新一代資訊科技，研發綠色、智慧的新型消費品。

【原文】

Consumption signaling H2 rebound

China's consumer market is poised to gain recovery momentum this year, with immense growth potential fueled by a series of pro-shopping policies, given that boosting consumption is a top priority for the country's economic growth for 2025, said Carol Liao, chair of Boston Consulting Group China.

"The country's consumption sector is still in the process of restoration and revitalization, and the consumer goods trade-in program has played a significant role in driving the recovery of consumption," Liao said in a recent exclusive interview with China Daily, adding that she hopes the national subsidy policy program continues.

Liao said that under the trade-in program, consumers are now encouraged to buy products with low purchase frequency, such as electronic devices, home appliances and furniture.

"We hope to see further encouragement for the purchase of some high-frequency commodities or the development of the services sector. The supportive measures targeting specific groups of people, such as parents, low-income groups and college students, can also play a greater role in stimulating consumption," she added.

Liao said she is optimistic about the development prospects of China's consumer market if such favorable policies are introduced in the second half of the year, highlighting that more stimulus measures are needed to boost consumption — including creating new employment opportunities, increasing household incomes, stabilizing the property sector and stimulating the stock market, so as to truly unleash consumption's potential.

This year's Government Work Report listed vigorously boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand across the board as top priorities among major tasks for 2025.

China's consumer market has witnessed a sustained recovery. Retail sales, a significant indicator of consumption strength, grew 6.4 percent year-on-year in May, marking the fastest growth since December 2023, said the National Bureau of Statistics. Online sales remained a bright spot, expanding 8.5 percent year-on-year during the first five months.

To further spur consumption, the country announced a raft of measures to expand the scope of the consumer goods trade-in program in January, increasing funding from 150 billion yuan ($20.9 billion) last year to 300 billion yuan, and offering subsidies for more home appliances and electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets and smartwatches.

Liao said that as Chinese shoppers have become more rational and prudent vis-a-vis potential purchases — with an emphasis on the quality and value of products — retailers should provide more high-quality and innovative merchandise.

Based on BCG's forecast, in the next 10 years, there will be tens of millions of Chinese consumers entering the middle-income group each year, so "we are still bullish on the long-term potential of China's consumption market", she said, adding that an increasing number of consumers tend to buy goods that satisfy their emotional value, such as the recent global craze for Labubu plush toys.

Liao said China's Generation Z shoppers — those born between the mid-1990s and early 2010s — are very sophisticated and pay attention to the quality and value of products, with a rising preference for cultural intellectual property.

Moreover, Liao said cutting-edge digital technologies like artificial intelligence will have a disruptive impact on consumption in the future, and currently, AI is being leveraged by enterprises to improve operational efficiency and lower costs.

Pan Helin, a member of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Expert Committee for Information and Communication Economy, said enterprises should be encouraged to use new-generation information technologies such as big data, AI and cloud computing to create new types of green and intelligent consumer goods.