3月，世界銀行前行長、美國前副國務卿羅伯特·B·佐利克（Robert B. Zoellick）來華交流，其新著《論美國：美國外交及外交政策史》中文版同期在中國出版發行。在上海，佐利克接受了中國日報深度訪談，暢談外交見解，回顧中國在經濟與科技領域的轉型歷程，並深入探討中美關係中的關鍵議題。
以下是訪談摘錄：
中國日報：您寫的《論美國：美國外交及外交政策史》中文版3月已在中國出版發行。請問您寫這本書的靈感從何而來？
佐利克：我想與年輕一代分享我的經驗，關於如何思考歷史和解決問題。亨利·基辛格在上世紀九十年代寫了一本名為《大外交》的書，他主要參考了歐洲的經驗，而我想嘗試從美國的經驗中汲取一些啟示。我認為讓歷史生動起來的方式是講述故事和人物。每一章都聚焦於一個人或一群人以及他們試圖解決的問題。我認為這本書在某種程度上與眾不同，部分原因在於我的背景經歷。除了安全問題，書中還涉及財政問題、貿易問題和技術問題。當把這些綜合在一起時，我堅信外交是一門藝術，而不是一門科學。在書中，你可以學到很多關於調解、談判、演講運用、倡導等方面的策略技巧。因此，我認為這本書可以讓你對外交的實踐有更深入的瞭解，跨越文化的界限。
I wanted to share my experience with younger generations about how to think about history and problem-solving. As you probably know, (former US secretary of state) Henry Kissinger wrote a book titled Diplomacy in the 1990s, but Kissinger drew primarily from the European experience. So, I wanted to try to draw from some of the American experiences.
I think the way you bring history to life is to talk about stories and people. So, as you know, each of the chapters focuses on a person or a group of people and a problem they're trying to solve.
In addition to security issues, you've got financial issues, trade issues, and technology issues. And when you wrap them all together, I have a strong belief that diplomacy is an art, not a science.
中國日報：1980年，您首次來到中國，那時正值中國推行改革開放政策之初。您如何看中國在過去40多年裡所經歷的經濟和社會轉型？
佐利克：我很高興那時有機會訪問中國。我們參觀了一個城市，我只記得那裡的磚塊和每個人身著藍色和灰色衣服，但這給了我一個視覺參照點。在接下來的幾十年裡，我看到了中國發生的巨大變化，我一直被中國的變化所吸引。在世界銀行任職的時候，除了去北京或上海，我還嘗試走訪中國的其他地區和城市。我的主要感受是這是一群多麼勤勞的人民，他們想要創造更好的生活，讓我非常尊重和欽佩。因此，對我來說，儘管在歷史、文化和政治上存在分歧，我們如何基於共同優勢去尋找共同點，避免麻煩並建立共同的優勢。這次中國行我也會去深圳，我想深圳看起來將與我在1980年看到的完全不同。短短幾十年，你看到人們從貧困和身著單調的服裝變成了你現在周圍看到的樣子，這真是巨大的變化，令人驚歎。
I'm so pleased I had a chance to visit China. I was here for only a day. My wife and I were in Macao where we got the one-day sort of visitations. We visited a communal farm. We visited a city that I just remember having cinder blocks and everybody being dressed in blue and gray. But it gave me a visual reference point.
So, when I visited China over the following years, I saw a huge transformation. This is a historic change. This is a huge change. And, obviously, it lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It created great opportunity.
I've always been fascinated by the transformation of China. At heart, what I have felt most strongly is that when I was with the World Bank, in addition to going to Beijing or Shanghai, I tried to visit other parts of the country. My main takeaway was that the Chinese (people) were very hard-working people who wanted to create a better life, and that's something you have to respect and admire. So, for me, my purpose is that while you have differences in history, culture, and politics, how can we find the common ground to steer away from trouble and build on the common advantages?
I've a lot of respect for what China has accomplished. Within one lifetime, you saw people move from impoverished conditions and sort of just drab clothing to what you see around you. It's a huge transformation. It's amazing.
中國日報：中國和美國如何建立積極的關係？
佐利克：中國和美國是世界上最重要的兩個國家, 我們不希望看到兩國發生衝突，我們需要竭力避免誤判。有時，人們會因為錯誤假設而陷入麻煩，隨著時間的推移，這些事件可能會變糟。顯然，雙方希望努力重建信任，並找到在經濟、氣候、大流行病或其他問題上的共同點。因此，問題的關鍵在於是否找到雙贏的合作機會。我希望事情都朝著積極的方向發展。
You've got the two most important countries in the world. You don't want them to clash. You want to try to do things to avoid miscalculations. Sometimes people get into trouble by assuming things or accidents that can expand and turn worse over time. You obviously want to try to rebuild some of the trust and find the commonalities of issues, whether economy, climate, pandemics, or others.
So the question is whether there are opportunities for some win-win cooperation there. I hope they move in the positive direction.
中國日報：中國實施的創新驅動發展戰略對世界意味著什麼？
佐利克：我期待中美兩國共同引領人工智慧行業發展。DeepSeek的成功並非單純的中美競爭，更多體現了人工智慧的新階段。去年，所有的討論都集中在構建非常昂貴的大模型上，這些大型語言模型不僅資本投入多，而且能源密集。因此，我認為DeepSeek不僅對中國，對其他國家也標誌著一個階段性的轉變。技術正在從賦能向適應轉變。DeepSeek是一個開放系統，它說明人們可以以更低成本去研發。儘管中美擁有各自的系統，但觀念傳播是跨越國界的，而且具有變革性。
In the artificial intelligence field, I expect the US and China to remain leaders. The success of DeepSeek to me is interesting, not so much in China-US competition as in a new phase of AI. And what I mean by that is last year, all the discussion was on building these very expensive large language models. Very capital intensive, very energy intensive. So, it was an investment in the enabling of technology.
DeepSeek, I think, represents a phase shift not just for China but for others (as well) and the idea that technology is moving from "the enabling" to "the adapting". How do you provide uses for this? So DeepSeek is an open system, but it's also showing how you can develop, sort of, methods in a lower-cost way.
While the US and China might have somewhat separate systems, the ideas travel across borders, and they will still be transformative.
中國日報：關稅和貿易壁壘仍然是全球化的主要挑戰。您認為有哪些有效的方法可以減少中美之間的貿易摩擦？
佐利克：我不支援加徵關稅政策。如果你問關稅或壁壘的影響是什麼，影響就是它會提高成本、降低生產率。無論中國還是美國，皆受其累。因此，這絕非僅是中美兩國之間的問題。美國也正對加拿大和墨西哥徵加關稅，這也會傷害北美的汽車產業。因此，我不認為這些是正確的政策。但有時，關稅被用作談判的一部分。特朗普可能將關稅作為一種施壓他國的手段。對於中國，他透過加徵關稅，試圖在芬太尼、藥品等問題上向中國施加壓力。我只能說他是從一個交易商的視角看待世界。
I'm not a fan of tariffs. If you ask what's the effect of tariffs or barriers, the effect is they raise costs and lower productivity. Whether it's China or whether it's the US. So, it's not just China and the US. The US is doing this with Canada and Mexico. It will also hurt the auto industry in North America. I don't think those are the right policies, but sometimes tariffs are used as part of a negotiation.
Maybe part of Trump's purpose is to get other countries to do various things. With China, he's talked about using tariffs to create pressure on the fentanyl and the drug issue. All I can say is he sees the world through the lens of a dealmaker.
中國日報：為什麼美國不能增加對中國的技術出口？
佐利克：在我看來, 出口管制或許在短期內能起到一定的作用，但無法阻止別人發展。
所以，如果美國限制半導體出口，可能是出於安全目的。但不要自欺欺人，中國將在幾年內研發出來。因此，我想說的是，我理解某些出口管制的邏輯。但另一方面，它也存在危險，因為它將產生不同的體系，而這正是我們現在正在應對的時代。
Export controls in my view can buy you a few years, but they won't stop somebody (from developing). You can't stop the development. So, if the US limits semiconductors (export), that may serve a security purpose. But don't fool yourself. China will develop it in a few years.
What I'm trying to explain is I understand the logic for some export controls, but on the other hand, there is a danger because what it will do is (that) it will produce separate systems, and that's the era that we're now dealing with.
中國日報：您如何看待中國的發展和崛起？
佐利克：中國發展得如此之快。許多中國人仍然說，“嗯，我們是一個貧窮的發展中國家”。但世界一些地區將中國視為強大的巨人，當你是強大的巨人時，你必須考慮你將如何被看待。我希望我們能夠找到共同基礎，不僅美國和中國，還有日本、韓國、澳大利亞、菲律賓和歐洲，以此建立一個更協作的工作框架。
China has grown so quickly. Many Chinese people still say, "well, we are a poor developing country". But the rest of the world sees China as a powerful giant, and when you're a powerful giant, one has to give thought to how you will be perceived. My hope is that we can continue to find a basis where not only the US and China but also Japan and South Korea, Australia and the Philippines and Europe will create a more cooperative working basis.
出品人：邢志剛
總監製：姚英 柯榮誼
統籌：張春燕 朱萍
記者：宋薇
影片：鄭朱翎
聯絡：劉建娜
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