ASMLCEO發出警告，直言歐洲不應受制於人

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來源：內容編譯自經濟學人，謝謝。

ASML 處於令人羨慕的地位。這家荷蘭公司是唯一一家能夠可靠地蝕刻最先進半導體的裝置製造商，從人工智慧 (AI) 加速器到智慧手機晶片，無所不包。即使是汽車和洗衣機中不太複雜的處理器，其機器也佔全球銷售額的 90% 以上。沒有競爭對手能與之匹敵。

然而，該公司的主導地位並沒有使其免受問題困擾。為了阻止中國的人工智慧野心，美國禁止 ASML 向中國公司出售其最先進的裝置。而且對 ASML 更基本工具的需求也減弱了。該公司被迫在 10 月份下調了 2025 年的銷售預測，導致其股價下跌了五分之一。儘管如此，在最近接受《經濟學人》採訪時，ASML 的老闆 Christophe Fouquet 表達了樂觀的語氣——並將矛頭指向了歐洲政策制定者。

ASML 在多個方面都面臨商業困難。中國產能過剩導致晶片供過於求，降低了其他地區對其更基礎的機器的需求。與此同時，該公司最新、最先進的極紫外 (EUV) 機器每臺售價超過 3.5 億美元，晶片製造商對此的反應褒貶不一。該工具將處理能力塞進越來越小的區域，這對於製造尖端的人工智慧晶片至關重要。然而，並非所有客戶都相信其精度與價格相符。研究公司 SemiAnalysis 表示，使用舊工具也可以獲得類似的結果，儘管製造過程更加複雜。

此類裝置的市場本身就很有限。只有少數幾家公司擁有部署它的專業知識和購買力。儘管臺灣晶片製造商、ASML 的最大客戶臺積電正在推進美國和臺灣的新工廠建設，但英特爾和三星最近因財務困難而降低了資本支出。儘管如此，Fouquet 先生對 ASML 的商業前景持樂觀態度。他預計人工智慧的進步將促使晶片製造商採用最新的 EUV 機器。

更令他擔憂的是地緣政治。2019 年，荷蘭政府在美國的敦促下禁止 ASML 向中國出口其先進的 EUV 機器，ASML 面臨的壓力開始增加。美國和荷蘭當局實施的限制範圍不斷擴大，隨後擴充套件到一些較舊的深紫外機器。Fouquet 先生說，即使在拜登執政期間，限制的理由也並不總是很清楚。唐納德·特朗普總統的第二任期帶來了更嚴格的控制威脅，幾乎可以保證會出現更多的不確定性。因此，ASML 的規劃變得更加困難。

因此，Fouquet 先生認為歐洲政界人士和政策制定者應該做更多的事情來幫助他的公司。ASML 總部位於埃因霍溫郊區，是歐洲唯一一家在關鍵行業擁有近乎壟斷地位的公司，這使其具有戰略重要性。談到荷蘭政府願意效仿美國實施出口禁令，富凱表示，歐洲必須“自己決定想要什麼”，“不應受制於他人”。他希望歐洲大陸的官員能夠更有力地支援其世界領先的公司。他警告說，如果他們不這樣做，這些公司可能就不想留在歐洲了。

事實上，情況必須變得更糟，ASML 才會考慮離開。該公司極其複雜的供應鏈主要位於歐洲。而且，如果 ASML 真的搬走，它仍將受到美國廣泛的出口管制，因為它依賴聖地亞哥子公司 Cymer 的技術。不過，Fouquet 的威脅表明了他有多沮喪。

他警告說，如果各國政府“在某些決定上做得過火”，後果可能會遠遠超出任何一家公司。半導體行業共同創造的“奇蹟”最終建立在一條微妙的“信任鏈”上，以深度專業化和協作為特徵。這條鏈現在正面臨壓力；如果這條鏈斷裂，“可能會危及我們今天認為非常了不起的一些東西”，Fouquet 警告說。也許是這樣。但歐洲的政策制定者有很多問題需要處理，而 ASML 的福祉遠遠排在他們的後面。

原文：

ASML’s boss has a warning for Europe

ASML is in an enviable position. The Dutch company is the only manufacturer of equipment that can reliably etch the most advanced semiconductors, as required for everything from artificial-intelligence (AI) accelerators to smartphone chips. Even for less sophisticated processors—the type found in cars and washing machines—its machines account for over 90% of global sales. No rival comes close.

The firm’s dominance has not spared it from problems, however. In an attempt to thwart China’s AI ambitions, America has barred ASML from selling its most advanced equipment to Chinese companies. And demand for asml’s more basic tools has weakened, too. The firm was forced to cut its sales forecast for 2025 in October, causing its share price to drop by a fifth. Nevertheless, in a recent interview with The Economist, Christophe Fouquet, ASML’s boss, struck a bullish tone—and took aim at European policymakers.

ASML faces commercial difficulties on a number of fronts. Chinese overcapacity has produced a chip glut, lowering demand for its more basic machines elsewhere. Meanwhile, the firm’s latest and most advanced extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) machines, which cost more than $350m each, have received a mixed response from chipmakers. The tool crams processing power into ever smaller areas, as is essential for making cutting-edge AI chips. Yet not all customers are convinced the precision justifies the price. According to SemiAnalysis, a research firm, similar results can be achieved using older tools, albeit with a fiddlier manufacturing process.

The market for such equipment is inherently limited. Only a handful of companies have the know-how and spending power to deploy it. Although TSMC, a Taiwanese chipmaker and ASML’s biggest customer, is pressing ahead with new American and Taiwanese plants, Intel and Samsung have recently lowered their capital spending because of financial difficulties. Still, Mr Fouquet is upbeat about ASML’s commercial prospects. He expects AI advances to prompt chipmakers to adopt the latest EUV machines.

What troubles him more is geopolitics. The pressure on ASML began to build in 2019, when the Dutch government, at America’s urging, barred the company from exporting its advanced EUV machines to China. Widening restrictions, enforced by both the American and Dutch authorities, subsequently extended to some older deep-ultraviolet machines. Even under Mr Biden the rationale for restrictions was not always clear, Mr Fouquet says. President Donald Trump’s second term brings the threat of still tighter controls, and the near-guarantee of more uncertainty. As a consequence, planning has become much more difficult for ASML.

Hence Mr Fouquet thinks that European politicians and policymakers should be doing more to help his company. With its head office on the outskirts of Eindhoven, ASML is Europe’s only firm with something approaching a monopoly in a critical industry, making it strategically important. Referring to the Dutch government’s willingness to follow America’s lead on export bans, Mr Fouquet says that Europe must “decide for itself what it wants” and “should not be dictated to by anyone else”. He would like the continent’s officials to support their world-leading companies more forcefully. If they fail to do so, he warns, such firms may not want to remain in Europe.

In reality, things would have to get much worse for ASML to even consider leaving. The company’s extraordinarily sophisticated supply chain is largely located in Europe. And if ASML did move it would still be subject to America’s broad export controls, since it relies on technology from Cymer, a subsidiary in San Diego. Mr Fouquet’s threats nevertheless indicate the extent of his frustration.

If governments “go overboard with some decisions”, he warns, the consequences could spread far beyond any single firm. What the semiconductor industry has created together is “a miracle” that is ultimately built on a delicate “chain of trust”, featuring deep specialisation and collaboration. That is now under strain; if the chain is broken it “could put some of the things we find so extraordinary today at risk”, Mr Fouquet cautions. Maybe so. But policymakers in Europe have plenty of problems they need to deal with, and the wellbeing of asml is far down their list.

參考連結

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/pat-gelsinger-has-advice-for-lip-bu-tan-as-he-settles-into-one-of-the-hardest-jobs-available

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