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思維導圖作者：
Cece，消防人+經濟學人粉絲
翻譯組全體成員如下：
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精讀|翻譯|片語
Business | Bags of money
商業 | 金錢滿袋
英文部分選自經濟學人20250329期文化
Large scale replica Hermès handbag installed on Broome street in New York City.
巨型愛馬仕手袋複製品亮相紐約布魯姆街
Business | Bags of money
商業 | 金錢滿袋
How Hermès defied the luxury slump
愛馬仕何以逆襲奢侈品寒冬
And its lessons for other high-end brands
高階品牌可借鑑的破局之道
The luxury industry has lost its sparkle. A slowdown in the Chinese economy and a cost-of-living crisis in the West have led to a slump in sales of fancy frocks and posh bags. If, after a pause announced on April 9th, the high levels of tariffs threatened by Donald Trump are enacted they could throw the industry into a tailspin. Kering, a French luxury group that owns Gucci, has posted a string of profit warnings in recent quarters. At lvmh, another French luxury giant which owns Louis Vuitton, sales of fashion and leather goods have gone into decline.
奢侈品行業昔日榮光不再。中國經濟增速放緩與西方生活成本危機，導致華服名包銷量暴跌。若特朗普揚言施加的高關稅在4月9日宣佈的暫緩期結束後最終生效，奢侈品行業恐將陷入螺旋式衰退。旗下擁有古馳的法國奢侈品巨頭開雲集團（Kering），近期已連續多季度釋出盈利預警；坐擁路易威登的另一家法國奢侈品巨頭路威酩軒集團（LVMH），其時裝與皮具銷售額已經出現下滑。
Yet one firm seems immune to the downturn: Hermès. Sales surged by 15% in 2024 to €15.2bn ($16.4bn). Citigroup, a bank, reckons that figure could rise to a symbolic €20bn by 2027 and soon overtake sales at Louis Vuitton. The s&p Global Luxury index has dropped by more than 20% over the past year, but Hermès shares have lost just 4%. What can other luxury groups learn?
唯有一家企業逆流而上，那就是愛馬仕。2024年其銷售額逆勢增長15%，達到152億歐元（164億美元）。花旗銀行預測，2027年其營收有望突破標誌性的200億歐元大關，很快便會超越路易威登。過去一年標普全球奢侈品指數下跌超20%，但愛馬仕股價僅下跌4%。其他奢侈品牌能從中學到什麼呢？
First lesson: control supply chains. Hermès runs small workshops filled with highly trained artisans. Some 55% of its goods are produced in-house or in exclusive partnerships; Adam Cochrane of Deutsche Bank reckons that figure is around 35-40% for competitors. Even in ready-to-wear clothing, where the firm uses outside manufacturers, it keeps suppliers close. Stéphane Wargnier, who worked in communications at Hermès for 18 years, was told to invite suppliers to the firm’s internal Christmas parties. In recent years the likes of Chanel, lvmh and Prada have poured money into buying their suppliers.
第一：掌控供應鏈命脈。愛馬仕採用小工坊模式，訓練有素的工匠團隊技藝精湛。約55%的愛馬仕產品由專屬工坊或獨家合作方完成。德意志銀行分析師亞當·科克倫（Adam Cochrane）估算，其競品的自主生產比例僅有35%-40%。即便是外包生產的成衣線，愛馬仕仍會與供應商保持密切聯絡。在愛馬仕供職18年的前傳播總監斯特凡·瓦爾涅（Stéphane Wargnier）透露，公司還要求邀請供應商參加內部聖誕派對。近年來，香奈兒（Chanel）、路威酩軒和普拉達(Prada)等品牌已紛紛斥巨資收購供應商。
The second lesson is that luxury groups benefit from disciplined price increases. In-house production at Hermès crimps supply. Waiting lists for the brand’s most coveted bags stretch for years even though it charges some of the highest prices in the industry (see chart). Yet Hermès hasn’t targeted ever-fatter margins; it raises prices in line with costs of production and currency fluctuations. Over the past decade that has led to average price increases of 6-7% per year, according to Bernstein, a broker. The price of its classic Birkin bag has risen by about 29% since 2016 to $12,100, according to estimates from Sotheby’s, an auctioneer, while the price of Chanel’s quilted bag has more than doubled.
第二：適度提價可以讓奢侈品牌從中獲益。愛馬仕的自產體系限制了產品供給。儘管愛馬仕包袋的價格在行業中居高不下（見圖表），最熱門的一些款式因需求強勁，往往仍需要多年等待才能買到。儘管如此，愛馬仕並沒有一味追求利潤最大化，而是根據生產成本與匯率波動來適度提價。據券商伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）指出，過去十年，愛馬仕的價格年均上漲約6%-7%。據拍賣行蘇富比（Sotheby）估算，愛馬仕經典柏金包（Birkin）的價格自2016年以來上漲了約29%，已達12100美元；而同期香奈兒的菱格包價格漲幅更是超過一倍。
That restraint puts the firm in an enviable position. Most brands raised prices dramatically after the pandemic as customers started “revenge shopping”. According to McKinsey, a consultancy, 80% of the increase in revenues in the luxury market between 2019 and 2023 came from price increases and only 20% from growing volumes. As consumer sentiment has turned, brands are being forced to discount existing products and introduce cheaper ones. Most luxury executives are jittery about tariffs and a global trade war squeezing margins further. Hermès’s boss, Axel Dumas, is sanguine. He plans to pass on the cost of any new duties. “Our American customers will understand,” he says.
這種剋制的提價策略讓愛馬仕處於有利地位。疫情過後，大多數品牌看準消費者開始報復性消費，紛紛大幅提價。據諮詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)統計，2019年至2023年間，奢侈品市場營收的八成漲幅來自價格上調，僅有兩成來自銷量增長。如今，隨著消費者情緒逆轉，各大品牌不得不將現有產品打折出售，並推出平價系列。關稅及全球貿易戰可能會進一步壓縮利潤空間，這讓大多數奢侈品的企業高管都感到焦躁不安。相比之下，愛馬仕的執行長阿克塞爾·杜馬（Axel Dumas）卻顯得從容不迫。他會將新增關稅成本轉嫁出去，並表示：“我們的美國客戶會理解的。”
The third lesson is that it is possible for luxury groups to sell less pricey lines to “aspirational” customers without destroying brand image. Though a large chunk of its wares are eye-wateringly expensive, Hermès also sells more affordable products, like lipstick and nail polish. Carole Madjo at Barclays, a bank, says the attitude is: “you buy a lipstick today but in ten years you might buy a Birkin bag.”
第三：奢侈品牌可以向“新銳”客群銷售較平價的產品，同時不破壞品牌形象。儘管愛馬仕的大部分商品價格高得驚人，但它也出售一些價格相對親民的產品，比如口紅和指甲油。巴克萊銀行(Barclay)的卡羅爾·馬喬（Carole Madjo）表示，愛馬仕的理念是：“你今天只買一支口紅，十年後可能直接拿下一個柏金包。”
It is a tricky balancing act. Brands such as Gucci have churned out cheaper items, like socks and bucket hats, and destroyed their reputation for exclusivity. By staying small and restricting supply Hermès has avoided that fate. The group has fewer than 300 shops worldwide, compared with 530 or so for Gucci. It increases production of leather goods by just 6-7% a year.
這是一種微妙的平衡。古馳(Gucci)等品牌曾大量生產襪子和漁夫帽等低價產品，有損品牌特有的高階形象。而愛馬仕則堅持少量有限的供應低端線產品，以此成功規避了風險。愛馬仕在全球只有不到300家門店，而古馳則有530家左右。愛馬仕皮革製品每年產量漲幅僅控制在6%-7%。
Other luxury groups will struggle to copy the model entirely. Luca Solca of Bernstein says Hermès is “in a league of its own”. The firm, founded in 1837 and still in family control, has spent time and money training artisans to produce high-quality bags. But if there is a weakness it is that there are only so many shoppers looking for a €10,000 handbag. Hermès’s wealthy customers may be less affected by the economic cycle. But when recovery comes and consumers open their wallets again, luxury houses that cater to the “aspirational” middle classes may gain the most.
其他奢侈品集團難以完全照搬這個模式。來自品牌伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的盧卡·索爾卡（Luca Solca）稱愛馬仕是“自成一派”。這家公司成立於1837年，現在仍是家族控股，透過投入大量時間金錢培養工匠打造高品質包袋。其弱點在於，願為價值1萬歐元手提包買單的客戶規模存在上限。愛馬仕的上層富裕客群受到經濟週期的影響可能較小。但是伴隨經濟復甦的消費意願釋放，錨定“新銳”中產階級需求的奢侈品牌或將實現最大獲利。
翻譯組：
zy，當下快樂就是意義
Crystal ，SISU小菜雞，紮根生長也自然流淌
Cassie，ECNU口譯小菜雞，體制內摸爬滾打教書匠
校對組：
雪迪，開眼看世界
Shulin，非上上智，無了了心
Yu Yang，架一艘譯艦巡航無數內心的曲折宇宙
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感想
本期感想
Very，男，電氣民工，經濟學人資淺愛好者
最近有一個觀點，即所謂的人文進步，或者科技帶來文明的進度，實際上幾乎是一種誤解。人性任何惡的部分，完全沒有被淨化或者清除掉，而是隱蔽在暗處，或者以某些方式偽裝了起來。
戰爭，人性的災難，獨裁，人民的痛苦幾乎是永恆的，和平才是偶然的。這個結論只要回顧歷史，便能輕而易舉地得到。
所以人們常常以為的如今自己所獲之平等、自由，在我看來，也僅是為了麻痺民眾而想出來的一種手段。這種策略的關鍵點在於建立足夠的資訊差壁壘，或者製造足夠的假象即可。但這一切並不是天衣無縫的，畢竟策略是人想出來的，肯定存在漏洞。上文的資料便很能說明問題。儘管幾乎所有的民間渠道都在表達同一種觀點，人們的感受也基本一致，但在另一個渠道來看，卻仍然是一片欣欣向榮的景象。
可能有些人以為掌握了武器便不怕一切，我卻想說，當年秦始皇搜刮盡了天下的武器鑄成12金人，以為如此便可以斷了人世間的非分念想，卻不知道僅二世便亡天下。
4
願景
46節直播課