Even poor countries must start planning for an ageing population

即使是窮國也必須開始為人口老齡化制定計劃

Consider
Thailand. It is rapidly greying. In 2021 the share of Thais aged 65 or
over hit 14%, a threshold that is often used to define an aged society.
Soon Thailand will, like Japan, South Korea and most Western countries,
see a dwindling supply of workers and, without extraordinary measures,
flagging productivity and growth. Yet unlike Japan and the rest,
Thailand, with a GDP per person of just $7,000 in 2021, is not a
developed country. It has got old before it has got rich. When Japan had
a similar portion of oldies, it was roughly five times richer than
Thailand is today.

想想泰國。泰國正在迅速白髮化。2021
年，65 歲或以上的泰國人佔比將達到
14%，這一門檻通常被用來定義老齡化社會。很快，泰國就會像日本、韓國和大多數西方國家一樣，出現勞動力供應減少的情況，如果不採取非常措施，生產力和經濟增長都將下滑。然而，與日本和其他國家不同的是，2021
年人均國內生產總值僅為 7,000 美元的泰國並非發達國家。泰國未富先老。當日本也有類似比例的老年人時，它的富裕程度大約是今天泰國的五倍。

This
is a big obstacle to Thailand’s future development. To protect its
ageing citizens, many of whom are poor, Thailand’s government will have
to spend more on health care and pensions. This will make it harder to
invest in productivity-boosting skills and infrastructure. And where
Thailand goes, many developing countries will follow. In Asia, where the
problem is most advanced, Indonesia and the Philippines are also likely
to become aged societies at lower income levels than was the case in
the rich world. Sri Lanka, where the average income is a third lower
than Thailand’s, will become aged by 2028.

這是泰國未來發展的一大障礙。為了保護老齡化的國民（其中許多是窮人），泰國政府將不得不在醫療保健和養老金方面投入更多。這將加大對提高生產力的技能和基礎設施進行投資的難度。泰國走到哪裡，許多發展中國家就會跟到哪裡。在問題最嚴重的亞洲，印度尼西亞和菲律賓也有可能在收入水平低於富裕國家的情況下成為老齡化社會。斯里蘭卡的平均收入比泰國低三分之一，到
2028 年也將進入老齡化社會。

Countries
that age before growing rich have failed to seize their demographic
opportunity, or aged out of it too rapidly, or suffered both problems.
Between 1960 and 1996 (just before the Asian financial crisis),
Thailand’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 7.5%. That was
impressive, but below Japan’s double-digit clip in its boom years.
Meanwhile, thanks to improving life expectancy and other factors,
Thailand has aged fast. The share of oldsters in its population doubled,
from 7% to 14%, in two decades. It took Japan 24 years to undergo the
same change, America 72, and much of western Europe over a century.

未富先老的國家未能抓住人口機遇，或老化過快，或同時存在這兩個問題。1960
年至 1996 年（亞洲金融危機爆發前夕），泰國的年均經濟增長率為
7.5%。這一數字令人印象深刻，但低於日本經濟繁榮時期兩位數的增長速度。與此同時，由於預期壽命延長和其他因素，泰國老齡化速度加快。泰國老年人口的比例在
20 年內翻了一番，從 7% 增長到 14%。日本花了 24 年，美國花了 72 年，而西歐大部分國家則花了一個多世紀才經歷了同樣的變化。

Rapid
ageing and slower growth are widespread in the developing world.
Vietnamese are about half as rich as Thais and ageing even faster.
India’s economy has been one of the world’s fastest-growing, yet not as
fast as Thailand’s during its boom. In the decade to 2020 India grew at
an average annual rate of 6.6%.

快速老齡化和增長放緩是發展中國家的普遍現象。越南人的富裕程度約為泰國人的一半，而且老齡化速度更快。印度一直是世界上經濟增長最快的國家之一，但在經濟繁榮時期卻不如泰國。截至 2020 年的十年間，印度的年均增長率為 6.6%。

One
conclusion is that countries with a working-age bulge need to wring
more growth out of it. India may never have a better chance than the
present. Under Narendra Modi it has a strong, pro-business government,
which is likely to win re-election next year. There is a consensus on
the measures, including privatisation and looser foreign-investment
rules, that could raise its growth rate. Such reforms would help India
take advantage of Western efforts to shift supply chains out of China.
If India needs a cautionary tale to justify action, it need look no
further than its own rapidly ageing southern states. In Kerala 17% of
the population is 60 or older.

一個結論是，工作年齡人口激增的國家需要從中榨取更多的增長。印度可能永遠不會有比現在更好的機會了。在納倫德拉-莫迪（Narendra

Modi）的領導下，印度擁有一個強大、親商的政府，並有可能在明年贏得連任。各方對提高增長率的措施已達成共識，包括私有化和放寬外商投資規則。這些改革將有助於印度利用西方將供應鏈從中國轉移出去的努力。如果印度需要一個警示性的故事來證明其行動的合理性，那麼它只需看看自己迅速老齡化的南部各邦。在喀拉拉邦，17%
的人口年齡在 60 歲或以上。

Another
conclusion is that developing countries need to start planning for old
age earlier. They should reform their pension systems, including by
raising retirement ages. They should nurture financial markets,
providing options for long-term saving and health insurance. They should
create conditions for well-regulated private social care. And they
should try harder to increase female participation in the labour force;
in India it is a wretched 24%, half the global average. Getting more
women into jobs would extend the demographic dividend and help deal with
the fact that women live longer than men, but tend to have more meagre
savings and pensions, and so are vulnerable in old age.

另一個結論是，發展中國家需要更早地開始規劃養老問題。它們應改革養老金制度，包括提高退休年齡。它們應培育金融市場，為長期儲蓄和醫療保險提供選擇。它們應為監管良好的私人社會護理創造條件。它們還應該更加努力地提高女性的勞動力參與率；在印度，女性的勞動力參與率只有可憐的

24%，是全球平均水平的一半。讓更多的女性就業將擴大人口紅利，並有助於解決女性壽命比男性長，但儲蓄和養老金往往更少，因此在老年時容易受到傷害的問題。

Finally,
developing countries should learn from the errors of rich ones by
taking a pragmatic view of immigration. Hard as this can be politically,
it is often the easiest way to extend the transition. Building sites in
Bangkok already throng with illegal Burmese immigrants. By formalising
them, Thai politicians could usher them into more productive roles.

最後，發展中國家應從富國的錯誤中吸取教訓，以務實的態度對待移民問題。雖然這在政治上可能很困難，但往往是延長過渡期的最簡單方法。曼谷的建築工地已經擠滿了緬甸非法移民。泰國的政治家們可以透過將他們正規化，讓他們發揮更大的作用。

India
provides a happier example of this. A continent-size country, its boom
is fuelled by internal migration. Its last census, in 2011, counted 450m
internal migrants. Many travel from the poor north to the more
prosperous south and west, to seize new opportunities and, increasingly,
to take up those being vacated by the south’s ageing workers. It is an
inspiring illustration of what relatively unfettered labour markets can
do—and a lesson for Japan, Thailand and governments everywhere. ■

印度就是一個很好的例子。印度是一個幅員遼闊的國家，國內移民推動了印度的經濟繁榮。在
2011 年進行的最近一次人口普查中，印度統計了 4.5
億國內移民。許多人從貧窮的北方來到更繁榮的南方和西部，抓住新的機遇，並越來越多地利用南方老齡化工人的空缺。這是一個鼓舞人心的例子，說明了相對不受約束的勞動力市場可以做些什麼，也為日本、泰國和各地政府上了一課。■