美國債務上限協議初步成形!能否最終透過,國會表決仍存變數?(附影片&解說稿)

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當地時間5月27日晚,美國總統拜登和眾議院共和黨籍議長麥卡錫分別宣佈,已就聯邦政府債務上限和預算達成初步一致,預計很快將有關協議文字提交國會投票。
美國總統拜登當天晚上發表宣告說,這是向前邁出的重要一步,代表了雙方的妥協。雙方談判團隊將在28日完成立法文字討論,然後提交給美國國會兩院。議長麥卡錫表示,國會議員將在28日獲得有關協議文字,眾議院將在5月31日進行投票。
該協議的主要內容包括限制2024年和2025年聯邦政府的支出,以換取至2025年年初的債務上限問題解決方案。其中,非國防預算支出在從2023年10月1日開始的2024財年基本不變,2025財年獲准增加1%。此外,該協議提高了申領聯邦政府救濟的門檻,同意小幅增加軍費和退伍軍人福利等開支。
但目前而言,5月27日的協議是“口頭”性質的,是驢象兩黨激烈談判數週的產物,但它仍需“分裂的美國國會”批准。這意味著,兩黨需在短時間內就多個問題進一步磋商。因為還要考慮眾議院,特別是共和黨內極右翼的、比較激進的共和黨人能否就這個妥協方案達成共識。同時也需要美國民主和共和兩黨最終一致認可,才能讓協議真正落實。
據美聯社報道,在債務上限的“拉鋸戰”中,兩黨的矛盾焦點在於,是否將削減開支與提高債務上限掛鉤。目前,美國的支出已大大超過稅收,政府透過借貸維持週轉。
美國的債務上限協議
為什麼可能在國會遇到麻煩?
↓↓↓ 上下滑動,檢視解說稿 ↓↓↓
– [Narrator] President Joe Biden  and Republican House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy,  have reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. 
– We still have a lot of work to do,  but I believe this is an agreement in principle  that's worthy of the American people. 
– [Narrator] The agreement still needs to be approved  by Congress before June 5th when the government could run  short of money to pay its debts  and fund government programs. 
David Harrison covers the US economy  and the Federal Reserve for The Journal. 
He explains what's in the deal  and whether Democrats or Republicans,  if anyone, came out ahead. 
– The two big parts of this deal,  first of all, obviously, that it raises the debt ceiling  for a couple years, basically pushes it  off to after the election. 
The Republicans really got an agreement to curb spending  for next year and to cap it for the subsequent year. 
– This deal is good news I believe you'll see  (coughs) for the American people. 
The agreement prevents the worst possible crisis,  a default for the first time in our nation's history. 
– There are a lot of other smaller things. 
There's new requirements that people  on food stamps either are employed  or are enrolled in some kind of program  and some provisions to streamline  or make it easier to get energy projects approved. 
– President Biden has delivered a result  that avoids a catastrophic default  that prevents us from our economy crashing. 
– Democrats got spending cuts that were not nearly as deep  as the Republicans had initially put forward. 
Now comes the next phase, which is Speaker McCarthy has  to sell this deal to his members, to the House Republicans. 
– We did a conference call with our conference,  and over 95% were overwhelmingly excited  about what they see. 
– A number of the more conservative members  of the House GOP caucus have come out in opposition to it,  calling it a disaster, some calling it appalling,  basically saying that McCarthy gave  up too much to Democrats to raise the debt ceiling. 
Likewise, on the Democratic side, some of the sort  of more progressive Democrats are very concerned  about things like the work requirements  for aid programs, some of the spending cuts. 
– Terrible policy, absolutely terrible policy. 
Does not reduce spending, actually, by some estimates,  creates a burden on administrative spending  that is actually worse, you know,  for the overall cost of a program like that. 
– This bill's gonna have a rough ride on Capitol Hill. 
We've already heard from some folks on the right  and on the left who oppose it. 
And so now the question is whether there'll be enough  in the middle to carry it through. 
– We know, at any time when you sit and negotiate  within two parties, that you gotta work  with both sides of the aisle,  so it's not 100% what everybody wants,  but when you look, the country is gonna be stronger. 
– [David] We have a June 5th deadline  to raise the debt ceiling  according to the Treasury Department. 
If Congress does not raise the the debt ceiling by then,  our government could quite literally run  out of money to pay its bills. 
– I strongly urge both chambers to pass that agreement. 
Let's keep moving forward on meeting our obligations  and building the strongest economy  in the history of the world. 
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