1
Summer，女，QE在職，夢想能仗走天涯 翻譯/音樂 /健康
翻譯組全體成員如下：
2
Finance & economics | Buttonwood
財經|梧桐樹專欄
英文部分選自經濟學人20250315期財經板塊
Finance & economics | Buttonwood
財經|梧桐樹專欄
What sparks an investing revolution?
是什麼引發了投資革命？
Ideas that emerged from the University of Chicago in the 1960s changed the world. But as a new film shows, they almost didn’t
上世紀60年代從芝加哥大學誕生的思想改變了這個世界。然而正如一部新影片所示，這些思想差點胎死腹中。
What prompts a revolution? When it comes to investing, no change has been as great as that which began with researchers at the University of Chicago in the 1960s. Their financial-theory revolution changed the way that almost everyone invests, and made speculators many trillions of dollars.
什麼會引發革命？在投資領域，沒有哪次變革能和1960年代芝加哥大學研究人員所開啟的變革相提並論。他們的金融理論革新幾乎扭轉了每個人的投資方式，讓投機者賺取了數以萬億級的利潤。
The transformation is the subject of “Tune Out the Noise”, a documentary by Errol Morris, an Academy Award winner, which held its premiere in New York on March 6th. His film includes interviews with academics and investors, such as Eugene Fama, Myron Scholes and David Booth, who took ideas about market efficiency and diversification from the textbook and put them into practice in the markets. This led to a surge in the use of data and a disciplined focus on costs, in turn providing the foundation for modern passive investing.
這次變革成為了電影《遮蔽噪音》(Tune Out the Noise)的主題。這部紀錄片由奧斯卡獎得主埃羅爾·莫里斯(Errol Morris)執導，於3月6號在紐約首映。影片包括對一些投資者和學者的採訪，如尤金·法馬（Eugene Fama），邁倫斯·科爾斯（Myron Scholes）以及大衛·布斯（David Booth），他們將教科書中的市場效率和多元化投資的理論付諸實踐，帶動了資料使用量的激增，以及對成本的嚴格把控，從而為當代被動投資理論奠定基礎。
Mr Morris’s film may, in theory, be about brilliant individuals, but its most powerful message is about the role played by chance. History, like markets, is affected by randomness, and luck brought together the right people at the right time. Each had to be present for the financial revolution to emerge.The University of Chicago’s role is just about the only part of the story that happened by design. It had become the nexus for financial research owing to its reputation for excellence in economics. The Centre for Research in Security Prices was established there in 1960, and its wealth of data on the price of bonds and stocks over decades enabled the academics to do their work.
莫里斯的影片理論上的主角是那些才華橫溢的人們，然而它傳達出的最強大的資訊卻是機緣巧合的作用。歷史如同市場一樣，受隨機性影響。運氣讓那些人在那個時間走到了一起。他們每個人對這場金融革命都至關重要，缺一不可。而芝加哥大學的作用可能是這場變革中唯一被人為設定的。由於其在經濟學領域的卓越聲譽，芝大在當年已經成為金融研究的中心。1960年，芝加哥大學成立了證券價格研究中心 (The Centre for Research in Security Prices)，其積攢了數十年的關於債券和股票價格的海量資料為學者們開展研究工作提供了莫大便利。
Randomness is apparent just about everywhere else. Although Mr Fama, who would later win a Nobel prize for his work on asset pricing, completed a doctorate at Chicago in 1964, he almost never made it to the university. After completing an undergraduate education at Tufts University, he had to chase up his application to Chicago, discovering that it had never been received. On phoning the university, he reached the dean of students by chance, who told him about a scholarship for Tufts graduates, before offering it to him on the spot.
機緣巧合，無處不在。後來憑藉資產定價理論研究成果獲得諾貝爾獎的法馬於1964年取得芝加哥大學的博士學位，但他差一點就沒能被錄取。在塔夫茨大學完成本科學業後，他申請到芝加哥大學繼續進修，但後來不停追問才發現，人家芝大根本沒收到他的申請材料。法馬給芝加哥大學打電話詢問情況時，恰好是負責學生事務的教導主任接聽了電話。這位教導主任不僅告訴他有一個定向給予塔夫茨學生的獎學金專案，而且當場給了他一個獎學金的名額。
It was a similar story for Mr Scholes, another future Nobel laureate. In the summer of 1963 he started a job as a computer programmer despite scant expertise. The six other programmers who were hired failed to show up for the job, leaving Mr Scholes alone to assist in the financial research of other academics. He took to the work, abandoning his plan to return to his family’s book-publishing company, and was in time offered a place on the university’s doctoral programme.
另一位諾貝爾獎獲得者舒爾茨也經歷過類似的事。1963年夏天，幾乎沒有任何相關經驗的他在芝加哥大學開始做計算機程式設計師。其餘六名被錄取的程式設計師都沒報到，只剩下他一個人幫助其他學者開展金融研究工作。他慢慢適應了這份工作，放棄了接手家族出版企業的計劃，後來芝加哥大學給了他一個博士專案的offer。
Mr Booth, whose name now adorns Chicago’s business school, and Rex Sinquefield, his business partner, put the academic ideas into practice by co-founding Dimensional Fund Advisors, a firm that today boasts $777bn in assets under management. In 1969 Mr Booth narrowly avoided being made to fight in the Vietnam war, when a lenient officer postponed his conscription since he planned to study for a PhD. Mr Sinquefield did serve in the armed forces during the war, but poor eyesight kept him from combat.
現在為芝加哥大學商學院冠名的布斯和他的商業夥伴雷克斯·辛克菲爾德（Rex Sinquefield）將學術理論付諸實踐，聯合創辦了德明信基金（Dimensional Fund Advisors），今天這家基金公司的在管資產規模高達7770億美元。1969年，要不是一個徵兵官員因為得知他要讀博士而推遲了他的應徵入伍時間，他就要去越南打仗了。辛克菲爾德參加了越南戰爭，但因為視力不佳而免於前線作戰。
A few twists of fate—an unanswered phone call, a prickly recruiting officer, more diligent computer programmers or better eyesight—would have prevented some of the men from reaching Chicago. Without the confluence of thought, investing might look very different today, making the world much poorer.
倘若法馬的電話無人接聽，倘若那位徵兵官員不夠寬容，倘若其他計算機程式設計師勤奮一點前來報到，倘若辛克菲爾德視力合格……命運稍有不同，便能將他們中的一些人攔在芝加哥大學大門之外。若是沒有他們的思想涓滴細流匯聚成河，今天的投資方式可能會截然不同，世界也會因此更加貧窮。
註釋：
1.prickly: easily annoyed or offended 易怒的；愛生氣的
2.confluence: the fact of two or more things becoming one （事物的）匯合，匯聚，彙集
Such happenstance is found elsewhere, too: other parts of economics and nuclear physics, for instance, relied upon the concentration of talent in America after geniuses, often Jewish, fled from the Nazis. In the 1950s Silicon Valley looked to be an unlikely home for the American tech industry, with corporate research mostly taking place on the east coast. That changed in large part because William Shockley, an inventor of transistor technology, set up his own firm in the San Francisco Bay Area. The company’s employees went on to establish giants including Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel. Shockley had picked the area simply because he wanted to be close to his elderly mother.
這種機緣巧合也存在於其他領域，比如，逃離納粹的天才們（猶太人居多）湧向美國，推動了經濟學與核物理學的發展。上世紀50年代，由於企業研發多集中於東海岸，矽谷看似難以成為美國科技產業重鎮。轉變始於電晶體發明者威廉·肖克利（William Shockley）選擇在舊金山灣區創立公司。這家公司的員工後來創立了快捷半導體、英特爾等巨頭。而他選擇這裡，僅僅是因為想離年邁的母親更近。
註釋：happenstance: chance, especially when it results in sth good 偶然情況；（尤指）機遇
“Tune Out the Noise” leaves viewers where the next investing revolution will come from. Quantitative trading has speeded up market activity, which is not quite as transformative as the changes that emerged from the 1960s. Some fret that cryptocurrencies are the most significant newish innovation, and that they are the preserve of speculators and criminals. But, in time, more useful ideas could emerge from the industry. There is always a chance.
《遮蔽噪音》讓觀眾不禁思考：下一場投資革命將源自何處？量化交易雖加速了市場活動，但與上世紀60年代的變革相比仍顯遜色。有人憂心於近年來最重要的創新恐屬加密貨幣，但其卻淪為投機者與犯罪分子的專屬。但假以時日，金融行業或許會孕育出更具價值的理念——畢竟，機緣巧合永遠存在。
註釋：preserve: an activity, a job, an interest, etc. that is thought to be suitable for one particular person or group of people （某人或群體活動、工作等的）專門領域
翻譯組：
Ryan，詩酒趁年華
風箏，熱愛生活熱愛翻譯熱愛搞錢熱愛貓咪
校對組：
雪迪，開眼看世界Cecilia，今年過得貴婦一點
3
感想
Cleo，男，學習不停，思考不止，努力成為審慎卻樂觀的深入思考者
根據諾獎得主尤金法馬的金融市場有效理論，金融市場的有效性主要體現在三個方面：
1.無交易成本
2.資訊完全對稱
3.證券價格可以被公允的反應
與之對應，我們可以各三個例子：
1.以Vanguard為例，他降低了ETF的交易成本，既可以管理上萬億的資產；
2.成立股票交易所，建立健全的資訊披露機制，吸引了數兆美元的證券/產品在其中交易；
3.以文中的達明信基金為例，一個科學的交易策略則吸引了超7千億美元的在管資產。
從這三個例子可以看出，但凡是改變了每一個因素中的一個較小的環節，改變了很小程度上的有效性，金融市場的反應都是宏大的，因為資本的逐利性本身就引導全部的資產向最高效的運營環境靠近。那麼，在我們瞭解三個方面之後，我們不免設想一下，下一個資本市場風口是什麼？
我想就我們現在的技術來看，應該是人工智慧。AI已經在多個資本市場的應用場景中有所部署。例如AI驅動的交易演算法，可以學習市場資訊，預測股票價格走勢。這無疑加快了證券價格的公允反應；投資銀行利用AI草擬招股說明書，這在長遠來看可以降低發行佣金，這降低了交易成本。
金融市場的有效性是一個完美的假設，這並不可能完全實現。例如企業管理層總是可以利用披露的灰色地帶隱藏些企業運營資訊；投資銀行以及交易服務總是會收取佣金；每個人的決策都是有限的，不同的價值觀使得證券的價格不會完全“公允”，財務預測也肯定會由於企業裡每個員工的主觀因素而變得不盡準確。從資本市場層面，鼓勵一切資訊的客觀，但在資本市場後面，是千千萬萬個人，人類的社會活動本就不客觀。但正是因為侷限，才體現的出來進步。無論是技術的夾持還是策略的提升，這都為錢留到更有效的地方做足了準備，也許，我們現在離下一個“機遇”只有咫尺之遙。
4
願景
46節直播課