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May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太陽，還要繼續努力的亞古獸
翻譯組全體成員如下：
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財經|梧桐樹專欄
英文部分選自經濟學人20250426期財經板塊
Finance & economics | Buttonwood
財經|梧桐樹專欄
Shouldinvestors spend the trade war in India?
投資者應該在貿易戰中押注印度麼
Mumbaimay be a haven, but it is not a safe one
孟買可能是個避風港，但它說不上安全
Fresh-facedfinancial reporters are swiftly disabused of the idea that there are “safe havens” in financial markets. With one eye on the word count, a grizzled sub-editor will cut the extraneous word and growl “all havens are safe”. Assets that retain their value during a market downturn—gold, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen—should be known by the one-word moniker “havens”. As such, the sub-editor will insist, “safe havens” have no place in newspaper copy.
金融市場中存在“安全避風港”？如果初出茅廬的財經記者有這種觀念，很快就會被糾正。一位飽經風霜的副編輯會一邊盯著字數統計，一邊刪去冗餘的詞語，並咆哮道：“所有避風港都是安全的。”在市場低迷時期能夠保值的資產——如黃金、瑞士法郎、日元——用一個詞來概括足以，即“避風港”。因此，副編輯會堅持認為，“安全避風港”這個表述就不應該出現在報紙文章中。
註釋：
1.grizzled：Agrizzled person or a person with grizzled hair has hair that is grey or partly grey. 灰白的; 頭髮灰白的
2.growl：Ifsomeone growls something, they say something in a low, rough, and angry voice. 低吼
3.moniker：Themoniker of a person or thing is their name, especially when they have changed it. 名字(尤指曾用名)
Inthe real world, too, safe havens are becoming hard to find. The assets listed above have seen heavy inflows during the turmoil that followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of swingeing tariffs on April 2nd. Gold has hit a new high. The yen has surged. Some short-term Swiss debt now carries a negative yield. That has left investors scouting for new, cheaper havens.
在現實世界中，安全的避風港也越來越難尋。唐納德·特朗普總統4月2日宣佈徵收高額關稅引發市場動盪，上述資產迎來了大量的資金流入。黃金價格創歷史新高。日元匯率飆升。一些瑞士短期國債甚至出現負利率。這種局面迫使投資者開始尋找更廉價的新型避風港。
註釋：
1.swingeing：極好的，嚴厲的
2.scout：Ifyou scout somewhere for something, you go through that area searching for it. 搜尋
Isthe best option to be found in South Asia? Indian stocks are an unlikely candidate for haven status. Emerging markets are generally considered to be on the riskier side of finance: they do well when investors are feeling comfortable, rather than when America’s S&P 500 index has fallen by almost 10%, as it has so far this year. The bull case for India is its growth story, not its scope for capital preservation. There are particular reasons for risk-averse investors to steer clear, too. India’s stockmarket has boomed in recent years on the back of huge inflows from retail investors who are often unsophisticated. The government has cracked down on the use of derivatives after many lost a fortune.
在南亞能找到最佳選擇嗎？印度股市不太可能成為避風港的候選者。新興市場通常被視為金融風險較高的地方：當投資者感覺良好時，它們的表現才會不錯；而今年以來，在美國標普500指數下跌近10%的情況下，新興市場就沒有那麼好的表現。印度的牛市邏輯在於其增長預期，而非資本保值的空間。對於風險厭惡型投資者來說，也有特定的理由讓他們避開印度股市。近年來，印度股市因大量散戶投資者的湧入而蓬勃發展，而這些散戶往往不夠精明。在許多人損失慘重之後，印度政府已開始打擊衍生品的使用。
Nevertheless, a handful of funds are now touting the market as a haven for those worried about Mr Trump’s trade war. India faces the prospect of relatively low tariffs: on April 2nd Mr Trump announced that it would face a flat rate of 26%, against a rate of 37% for Bangladesh and 46% for Vietnam, before announcing a 90-day pause on their implementation. India is less reliant on goods exports, which are worth roughly 15% of GDP, compared with 60% for Thailand and 85% for Vietnam. That is one reason why the Nifty 50, India’s index of large firms, is up by 4% since “Liberation Day” compared with a fall of 4% for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and 8% for Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh index. Consumer-goods stocks have done particularly well, as have banks.
儘管如此，還是有一些基金鼓吹印度市場是應對特朗普貿易戰的避風港。印度面臨的關稅相對較低：4月2日，特朗普宣佈對印度統一徵收 26% 的關稅，而孟加拉國為 37%，越南為 46%，隨後他又宣佈將暫緩90天實施。印度對商品出口的依賴程度較低，商品出口額約佔其國內生產總值（GDP）的 15%。而泰國的這一比例為 60%，越南則為 85%。這也就是為什麼印度大型企業指數Nifty 50自“關稅解放日”以來上漲了 4%的原因，同期香港恒生指數下跌了 4%，越南胡志明指數下跌了 8%。消費品股票和銀行股的表現尤為出色。
備註：
解放日：4月2日被稱為“解放日”，是美國總統特朗普宣佈實施一項前所未有的關稅政策的日子。這一天標誌著全球貿易格局的重大轉折，特朗普表示將徵收“對等關稅”，以保護美國工業免受外國競爭的影響，併為聯邦政府籌集資金。
It represents a pretty impressive turnaround. In the months following Mr Trump’s victory in America’s presidential election, the Nifty dropped by 13%. A strong greenback and a weakening Indian rupee meant that many international investors sold up, turning instead to xxx, where artificial-intelligence companies were making breakthroughs on the cheap and the government was considering stimulus. Now the dollar is struggling and xxx is facing weaker American demand. These fast-changing dynamics mean that Indian share prices have, for the past six months, been inversely correlated with America’s. If that pattern continues, the country will offer a harbour for those who wish to sit out the trade war.
這真是一次超級大逆轉。特朗普競選美國總統獲勝的這幾個月以來，印度Nifty 50 指數下跌了13%。美元走強，印度盧比走弱使得許多國際投資者紛紛拋售股票，將目光轉向xxx市場。彼時，xxx人工智慧企業正以較低成本取得重大突破。政府也醞釀出臺刺激措施。如今，美元表現疲軟，xxx出口美國需求減弱。這些飛速的變化意味著在過去六個月，印度股價走勢和美股呈相反趨勢。如果這種模式持續下去，印度會為那些希望避開貿易戰的投資者提供一個避風港。
Moreover, India’s domestic economy could continue to grow robustly. The central bank has room to cut interest rates, since inflation is at 3.3%—comfortably below its target of 4%. Policymakers have lowered liquidity requirements for banks. A weaker dollar also means there is less need to worry about defending the rupee. (If anything, the bigger threat now comes from the xxx, a devaluation of which would benefit xxx exports at the expense of India’s.) The government could soften its spending cuts. And an official forecast suggests that the monsoon will probably come good, providing 5% more water than usual, which would put money into the pockets of the three-fifths of Indians who still depend on the rural economy and lower food prices for urban consumers.
此外，印度國內經濟有望保持強勁增長。通脹率為3.3%，距離4%的目標水平仍有足夠距離，因此印度央行還有降息的空間。政策制定者已經下調了銀行的流動性要求。美元走弱也意味著印度捍衛盧比匯率的壓力減輕（實際上，更大的威脅反而來自xxx，若xxx貶值，將有利於xxx出口，從而對印度出口不利）。印度政府也可能會降低削減開支的力度。一項官方預測顯示，今年季風季節將帶來不錯的收成，降水量預計將比往年高出5%，這將為仍然依賴農業經濟的三分之二印度人帶來收入，同時也能降低城市消費者的食品價格壓力。
India may be a place to escape the trade war—insulated from export turmoil and benefiting from a weaker dollar—and hold some other attractions, too, but it is not without drawbacks. Indeed, investing in it is risky. Stocks trade at a premium of 20% over the rest of the world, owing to an economy that grows by 10% or so in nominal terms in years good and bad. Analysts expect only limited growth in corporate earnings this year, making expensive valuations hard to justify. Rains still have to fall in the right places. There are rumblings of debt problems in the middle classes, and economists debate whether a recent slowdown is merely cyclical or structural. In a confusing development for sub-editors, it turns out that havens are not always safe.
投資印度或許可以暫避貿易戰的衝擊。印度既能避免出口動盪，又能受益於美元走弱，同時還有其他一些吸引力，但印度市場並非沒有隱憂。實際上，投資印度風險不容小覷。由於該國經濟無論形勢好壞，名義增長率通常都能達到10%左右，印度股票的價格相比全球其他市場約有20%的溢價。分析師預計，今年企業盈利的增長將十分有限，使得偏高的估值難以維繫。是否風調雨順仍未可知。中產階層的債務問題初露端倪，經濟學家們就近期增長放緩究竟是週期性的，還是結構性的爭論不休。對於編輯來說，事態發展令人困惑——結果表明，所謂的“避風港”，並不總是安全的。
翻譯組：
Harold，不狂不放不申花
vivifang，女，本人豐富，日新月異，無法簡介
Humi，女，學習財經的金融小白，不負韶華，平視世界
校對組：
雪迪，開眼看世界Hannah，女, 愛讀財經的金融小白 經濟學人唯粉
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感想
休息一下……
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願景
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